Happy New Year!
As Dan Gardner has been pointing out lately, predictions are a win-win for the prognosticator. As he puts it, professional forecasters adopt a “heads I win, tails you forget that we had a bet” approach. Or, as Ozzie Jurock once advised “predict often, and don’t provide timelines”
In short, most predictions are wrong, and we pay the most attention to those that come true. Nevertheless, the time has come for predictions. What will 2011 bring?
I’ve got a few. Mish, and other American bears who assume that our local market must follow the US example will be, once again, off by at least a year. I don’t care what they say, or who they make fun of. They’re going to be wrong.
The same thing goes for Garth Turner and any other expert from Eastern Canada who thinks they can predict our local market. Once again, they’re going to be off by at least a year. I don’t care how much they ridicule people, or how many times they point to bulls who were bullishly incorrect in the past. They will be wrong.
CREA is going to be wrong, as will RE/Max, Royal LePage and C21. Our local market is going to confound them. (Why? Because that’s what our market does. Its as if it reads press releases and alters course accordingly).
James Howard Kunstler is more entertaining than just about any other professional doomsayer I know of (perhaps its just a personal taste thing). I love his provincial American superiority (who else could travel to Australia and conclude that Australians pronounce “Melbourne” incorrectly? You have to love the self-confidence required for that kind of behaviour 🙂 ) Anyway, he’s going to continue to entertain, but he’s also going to continue to be wrong. The US is not going to self-destruct.
So much who’ll be wrong in 2011 (ok, what follows may well end up under the “who’ll be wrong” header).
1) Julian Assange will not go to jail.
2) Christie Clarke will not win the Liberal leadership.
3) Gregor Robertson will run for the leadership of the NDP. The chance of victory will be too much for the party to resist.
4) Sarah Palin (I’ve become a fan since she won the Mark Twain Prize for American Humour) will continue to cement her foundation as the Republican presidential nominee to beat. Her use of reality TV, from Dancing With the Stars through Sarah Palin’s Alaska will lead to an appearance on Celebrity Jeopardy, where, unfortunately, she won’t make it to Final Jeopardy.
5) There will be war on the Korean Peninsula involving limited nuclear warfare on the part of the North. The US will dither. The Chinese will calm the waters and Kim Jung Il will subsequently be deposed (I mean “pass away while heroically defending the Glorious Republic”), being replaced by a more stable Chinese puppet. US power will be reduced as both Japan and the South Korea are drawn increasingly into the new Co-Prosperity Sphere.
6) Michael Ignatieff will prove that he’s smarter than some people think. We will not have a federal election in 2011.
7) Millenium will, within the year, reduce prices by more than 30%, and settle with those buyers who have already closed, based on a faulty disclosure statement made by the original developer.
8) The REBGV average price for detached properties will rise by 3% over the whole year.
9) Apartment and detached prices will remain essentially unchanged.
10) Sales volumes will be lower in 2011 than in 2010.
Now its your turn. Vote in the poll and/or submit your own predictions.
Click on the “View Results” button at the bottom of the poll to see the results.