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Weekly Vancouver Real Estate Stats, Feb. 7-13

Total inventory for the REBGV/FVREB was 17,513, of which 6,114, or 34.91%, were over 90s.

For the REBGV the numbers were 11,056, 3,755, and 33.96%

For the FVREB the numbers were 6,457, 2,359 and 36.53%.

There were 1,463 new listings, 333 price changes and 688 sales in the REBGV, for a sell list of 47.03%.

In the FVREB the numbers were 679, 209 and 234, for a sell/list of 34.46%.

The combined numbers were 2,142, 542 and 922 and a sell/list of 43.04%.

Not a lot of change Sell/list droppeda little, over 90s still edging down, inventory growing.

First chart is REBGV, second is FVREB, third is combined. Numbers are courtesy of the REBGV, and while every effort is made to ensure their veracity the REBGV assumes no responsibility for the numbers or their use. Any errors are solely mine.

Rob’s Report Generator

Rob’s Report Generator

Data for File: SalesFebruary13REBGV.csv

All Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
688 $765,237.58 $758,134.35 -$7,103.22 -1.18% 45
Attached Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
372 $498,395.31 $489,830.10 -$8,565.22 -1.63% 49
Detached Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
311 $1,086,473.95 $1,081,432.93 -$5,041.02 -0.59% 39

Data for File: SalesFebruary13FVREB.csv

All Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
234 $448,232.94 $436,623.57 -$11,609.37 -2.89% 58
Attached Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
109 $281,609.36 $272,880.41 -$8,728.94 -3.19% 54
Detached Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
119 $595,330.98 $581,060.08 -$14,270.90 -2.63% 61

Data for File: SalesFebruary13REBGVFVREB.csv

All Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
922 $684,783.04 $676,536.17 -$8,246.86 -1.61% 48
Attached Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
481 $449,269.18 $440,666.86 -$8,602.32 -1.99% 50
Detached Properties
Sales Average List Price of Sales Average Sales Price Difference ($) Difference (%) DOM
430 $950,552.99 $942,957.65 -$7,595.33 -1.16% 45

My name is Rob Chipman and I’m a realtor, pilot and all around super hero based in Vancouver, BC. I really enjoy flying, playing guitar and hockey, real estate and the Chilcotin.  My company is Coronet Realty Ltd., located at 3582 East Hastings Street, Vancouver, BC, V5K 2A7. I have a C-150L that I own with two other pilots, based out of Pitt Meadows. Do not hesitate to contact me by email if I can help you do anything, especially if its likely to be interesting.


23 Responses to “Weekly Vancouver Real Estate Stats, Feb. 7-13”

  1. 1 says:

    great graph Rob…will you post the link with each week’s data?

    Rob, I’ve noticed that the FV is soft the past two weeks (not sure about before this) in terms of sell/list – markedly more so than Vancouver…any commentary/thoughts around this? Just a blib, or evidence of cooling from the outside in thesis?

    thanks.

  2. vanpro says:

    Rob’s comment: “inventory growing.”

    Agree w/ you on that point: 25% increase in inventory since Jan.9th (in just 5 weeks). We are at higher inventory than same period in 2010 and higher than same period in the major correction year of 2008. Sales are about 3rd lowest in last 10 years. Listings for Feb./11 so far are highest in last 10 years for Feb….

  3. 1 says:

    vanpro – did listings last year in Feb breach 13000? do you think (per PaulB stats) that they will this month?

  4. vanpro says:

    1:

    Feb/10 ending inventory = 11,346(REBGV stats: http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports?month=February&year=2010)

    We will easily surpass that this week…

  5. 1 says:

    thanks….

    vanpro, any comments/thoughts on the strength (or lack thereof) of the sales thus far in Feb, relative to is this a strengthening or weakening market?

    Also, Rob – do you know how the March 18th rules will apply? ie. will the deal have to be inked by then, or will pre-approved mortgages be able to hold for the typical 90-120 day period as long as they ink a deal before expiry? ie. on March 19th is it a whole new game, or will (as there normally is) there be a gradual wind-down from the 35 year amorts?

    thanks!

  6. 1 says:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Average+price+home+jumps+cent+January+compared+year/4278542/story.html?tab=PHOT

    why so painful outside of richmond and westside?

    also, anyone know about the new mortgage amortization rules? when they actually go fully into effect – thanks!

  7. Anonymous says:

    A pre-approval won’t be sufficient to get you a 35yr mortgage after March 18th. You’ll need to close before that date, or put down a large enough downpayment so that you don’t need CMHC insurance.

  8. Rob says:

    The March 18 rules don’t apply to many of my clients, and don’t seem to apply to many of the deals we do.

    In terms of why so painful outside Richmond and the Westside, we pointed that out on this blog back in January or December. W/S and Richmond have a large Chinese demand that other areas lack.

    The article talks about metro Vancouver vs. the North, the Okanagan and the Island. The dif in that regard is simple. Vancouver is a big city that a lot of people want to live in, regardless of the market or economy. You can’t say that about the rest of the province, at least not to the same degree.

    Get some gravatars, you guys!

  9. 1 says:

    Why are North Vancouver BENCHMARK prices lower than they were three years ago?

  10. WoW says:

    I love the rainy/grey days here, no wonder we are at 2billion times avg. family income. The fantastic weather is probably responsible for the bulk of the stupidity out there.

    Or could it be cheap/easy money and the impact of mass psychology?

    Nay, has to be the rain.

  11. Rob says:

    1:

    As mentioned earlier, we talked about that here already. North Van isn’t the only place that’s given up ground. The Westside, East Van and Richmond, I think, dragged up the average.

    Personally, I think we’ve peaked, and I expect a period of stagnation. I think we’re seeing that unfold right now.

    What do you see happening? (Make it fun and include specifics:-) )

  12. 1 says:

    Hi Rob,

    Glad to hear you state that.

    I agree with you, for the next few months. But as the new amortization rules bite in, and higher 5year and soon to be variable rate (linked to prime) drift ever higher, I think that things tighten considerably.

    So, short-term I agree, medium term I think we start pulling a Seattle soon.

    Sales volumes still surprise me. Until April (post rush to beat the rules), I guess I’ll suspend judgement, but if volumes stay high as we go past that I’ll be surprised. I expect listings to creep up once the variable starts to tick up – Mark Carney holds the cards on this, but you can’t stop a train barreling down a hill that easily, rates appear to be straining to move higher globally in my view….we live in interesting times.

    As China tightens and the heat comes off of their ppty market and credit starts to reign in, I think the overseas buyer myth/reality will be pressured, which will start to hit Richmond/Westside and EVan spillover. If China continues to barrel ahead unabated, this thesis will sink. Confucious, where are you?

  13. Rob says:

    1:

    I can’t see that the overseas buyer thing is a myth. How else do you explain the price rises that we’ve been seeing where we’ve been seeing them? China is so huge, and generates so much money that only a small percentage of a small percentage need to find Vancouver to make a big impact (which we’ve witnessed). They won;t be impacted by local mortgage rules.

    I’m not saying this is good or ill. If the Westside and Richmond are taken away from the local market because local buyers can’t compete with offshore money then you have to ask: what do the sellers do? If they move to a hobby farm in Langley, then Langley hobby farm prices will rise. That’s just a ripple effect. The guy who didn’t sell a Westside property can still only afford so much. We’ve always assumed that no individual part of town can outstrip other areas in terms of price growth for a prolonged period of time. Maybe we’re going to see that change, and end up with a much more fractured market.

  14. WoW says:

    Rob,

    Don’t fret your pretty self.

    Be happy.

    All will end well.

    And the Bears will inherit the earth (including Richmond).

    Gravity, Einstien, gravity.

  15. 1 says:

    Value = net present value of future cash flow.

  16. vanpro says:

    Rob,

    Any comment on these facts from the stats so far in Feb/11:

    1. Current sell/list ratio for Feb/11 to date of around 51% is 2nd LOWEST in last 10 years (only Feb/09 was lower when the Vancouver housing market was at standstill).

    2. New listings so far in Feb/11 are on pace to be HIGHEST in last 10 years (by significant margin).

  17. Rob says:

    Vanpro:

    Not so far. I was expecting stagnation because prices are so high and rates are so low (low rates don’t equal a crash and high prices don’t equal a boom – high prices being the cure for high prices sort of thing).

    Instead we’ve been seeing quick sales, multiples and over lists in the office.

    IOW, my guess of what we’d see and what I’m seeing right in front of me doesn’t square.

    2nd lowest sell/list in last 10 years has to be taken with a grain of salt. The lowest was during an almost correction. The rest of the time we were in a freakishly good market. Let’s remember that a 50% sell/list isn’t a bad sign, unless you give more weight to the relativity of it (in which case we can never get to a “normal”). So, no real comment or thought on the S/L.

    Inventory growth doesn’t concern me yet, but its worth watching. Its the next chart I’m going to make.

    I will say, high inventory, low rates and low sales will cause only minor price drops, as far as I can see. Stagnation, not crash. We’ll see though. My crystal ball is only as good as yours.

  18. WoW says:

    Rob:

    Low rates – that is so yesterday.

    Coming soon to a theatre near you – massive (in terms of % increase) interest rate hikes.

    Ya, whatever.

  19. Rob says:

    WoW:

    Anytime you have to qualify a threat you’re undercutting your own credibility. “massive (in terms of % increase)” is like “the world’s tallest midget”.

    Rates of 21% will kill, like they did when we had a crash here. That would be massive.

    So would 12.75%, which is around what I was paying in 1990.

    But a jump from, say 3.75% to 5.25%? It’ll have an effect, but if you call that massive, well….you probably call a 15% drop a crash 🙂

    • Alexcanuck says:

      Well, since we are pretty close to record un-affordability due to price increases and people maxing out their mortgages looking only at monthly payments at extremely low interest rates, a 1 1/2% jump from 3.75 to 5.25 has a much greater effect than the same increase from 8 to 9.5% would.

  20. Rob says:

    1:

    “Value = net present value of future cash flow”.

    Sounds solid, but…is it completely objective? There are variables in the equation, correct? There are also shortcomings to that definition (a real estate cash flow in Pitt Meadows isn’t worth the same as a real estate cash flow downtown, correct?)

    Care to expand? Especially in terms of stabililty of cash flow, cap rate, and the differeing premiums that the market demonstrably pays? I think its an important subject.

  21. vanpro says:

    Rob,

    Current 51% sell/list is tied w/ Feb./08 for 2nd lowest – recall that preceeded the 2008 crash/correction (when Van West SFH benchmark price plunged 25% in about 10 weeks from July-Oct, 2008.

    I look forward to your inventory charts. Can you superimpose the 2011 inventory on the same graph as the 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 inventory graphs, so we get good comparison?

  22. Rob says:

    Vanpro:

    ” Can you superimpose the 2011 inventory on the same graph as the 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 ”

    Yup, that’s the plan.