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BC Housing Rally? Really?

A mortgage broker with Verico, Geoff Ellingham, sends me emails with real estate links (he hasn’t singled me out for special treatment – I’m sure he sends links to all the cool kids). A recent one that stood out was a Globe & Mail report that the BC Housing Rally is expected to continue through 2014.

Really? Rally?

Let’s get realistic about this. Prices are flat. Inventory is pretty much tied for the third highest level for this time of year, ever. That’s a rally?

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a bubblehead. I’m not a big doom and gloom guy. But some perspective is in order.

This is Vancouver. A rally here should be a double digit price increase. If it’s not that it’s neither something to complain about nor crow about. I know the MSM have to buy newsprint at 10 cents a pound in order to re-sell it at 20 cents a pound, but c’mon.

Here’s some more food for thought:the article states “The average residential price for a B.C. resale property this year is now forecast to climb 4.3 per cent to $537,100. A year ago, the association originally predicted a 0.7-per-cent price increase for 2013, though it subsequently revised its estimate to a 3.3-per-cent hike as the province‚Äôs housing industry healed from a rough 2012.”

Is that the same as saying “The industry was wrong on it’s original prediction, then wrong again on it’s revised prediction, and has now revised the prediction a third time”?

Ozzie Jurrock once advised “predict often, but don’t give dates”. That’s good advice because it increases the chances that you’ll be right once in a while.

The article also says that Cameron Muir, BCREA’s cheif economist, “forecasts that B.C. housing sales in 2014 will climb a further 6.3 per cent to 76,200 units while prices rise 2.1 per cent to $548,200. A stronger provincial economy is taking shape, including increased production of B.C. lumber due to a rebound in the U.S. housing market. Exports generally are in line to benefit next year from improved economies globally, especially in the United States and Japan”.

The US is in a world of hurt economically and politically. The President is having an unbelievably bad month. His signature achievement, Obamacare, hasn’t been achieved, and he’s being called on the carpet by his allies for spying on them. He’s doing nothing for the US economy. And Japan? They’re going to save us? Don’t believe it.

Low rates are putting off the day of reckoning. That’s all that’s happening. You may not have heard it here first, but mark Halloween 2014 in your calendar. We’ll have seen three more revised forecasts by then.

(Thanks, Geoff, for the links. If anyone needs a mortgage consider calling Geoff. Best 5 year rate is currently 3.39%. Get it while you can).


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