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Inventory

  • Total inventory for both boards is 23,755;
  • REBGV inventory is 15,762;
  • FVREB inventory stands at 7,993.

Last night’s sales were 223.

Think about that: If we stopped listing new product we currently have enough inventory to last 107 days.

Broken down by board its 156 sales and 15,762 inventory for the REBGV, meaning 101 days of inventory, and 67 sales and 7,993 inventory for the FVREB, meaning 119 days of inventory.

There’s more to talk about with inventory. I maintain a graph of comparative inventory by month over the last ten or so years. Looking at it allows you to see the years with big inventory – 2008 leads the way. Market and blog watchers will remember that 2008 was the year of the great financial crisis, and also the year that the web bears thought their predictions had finally come true (they didn’t, but we saw declines approaching 20%). 2012 was another big year, and very similar to 2008, except with less fear. In third and fourth place are 2010 and 2013.

Can we reach any conclusions? It’s important to remember that inventory can’t tell the whole story without knowing sales levels as well, but it is pretty safe to say that lots of inventory tends to dampen price growth. Our market history tends to support classic supply/demand theory.

We can also see a correlation between the the two highest inventory levels (2008 and 2012) with marked downward price pressure. We can also see that the days of really hot price growth (almost ten years ago now) were characterized by much less inventory – roughly two thirds of current inventory.

And we also see that inventory is trending higher each year, and in a marked fashion.

Right now we’re climbing at a slower rate than 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2013. That could indicate that inventory will not climb as high as in past years (assuming the first three months become a trend). Even so, we could be on track for a repeat of 2011, but at a higher level.

One thing is for certain: we have a lot of inventory for sale and our sell/lists are residing in the middle to low ranges. Don’t expect sustained price growth unless that changes.


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