December Stats Release
The December Stats Package and News Release is out:
VANCOUVER, B.C. – January 5, 2010
Slow start, strong finish for housing market in 2009
After beginning the year at near record low sales levels, buyers’ confidence in the Greater Vancouver housing market quickly returned, allowing for significant and sustained increases in the number of residential property sales for much of 2009.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total unit sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2009 reached 35,669, a 44.8 per cent increase from the 24,626 unit sales recorded in 2008, but a 6.3 per cent decline from the 38,050 residential sales in 2007.
The number of homes listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver declined 15.5 per cent in 2009 to 52,869 compared to the 62,561 properties listed in 2008.
“Low interest rates, an economy emerging from recession and continuing to improve, and consumer confidence led to the resurgence experienced in the Greater Vancouver housing market in 2009,” Scott Russell, REBGV president said. “Home sales neared or passed monthly records in Greater Vancouver throughout the latter half of 2009. In fact, last month’s home sales rank as the third highest selling December in the 90-year history of our organization.”
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,515 in December 2009, an increase of 172.2 per cent from the 924 sales recorded in December 2008, and an 18.4 per cent decline compared to November 2009 when 3,083 home sales occurred.
The residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 16.2 per cent to $562,463 between Decembers 2008 and 2009.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,153 in December 2009. This represents a 38.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,550 new units listed in December 2008 and a 41.1 per cent decline compared to November 2009 when 3,653 properties were listed.
“The number of homes listed for sale on our MLS® has been in decline in Greater Vancouver for eight of the last nine months, which results in upward pressure on home prices and less selection for buyers to choose from,” Russell said.
Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 8,939, a decrease of 41 per cent from December 2008, and a decrease of 19 per cent from November 2009 (see graph on page two for more detail).
Sales of detached properties in December 2009 increased 159.2 per cent to 902, compared to 348 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 18.3 per cent to $766,816 compared to December 2008.
Sales of apartment properties in December 2009 increased 176.7 per cent to 1,154, compared to 417 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 14.8 per cent since December 2008 to $382,573.
Attached property sales in December 2009 increased 188.7 per cent to 459, compared with the 159 sales in December 2008. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 12.9 per cent between Decembers 2008 and 2009 to $478,093.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,500 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.rebgv.org.
160 comments
Yes, but is MOI rising?
Vancouver real estate is currently so expensive that discussion of prices or price changes in terms of percentages has become almost meaningless.
As such, the absolute value of housing is so high that a 10 to 20% drop in prices could be truly devastating to recent purchasers— not to mention tax payers via CMHC.
People in the States were wiped out owning $200, 000 properties which depreciated 40% (an $80 000 loss). I shutter to think of what might happen if a $900 000 house depreciates 20% (even the most ardent Bulls could not argue that this is not a plausible scenario)— that would be a $180 000 loss.
With roughly a $500 increase in payments for every percentage increase in interest rates, that almost million dollar mortgage could become exceptionally onerous— really quick. Particularly, for the average earner of a modest Vancouver salary.
Although if some of these purchasers did not really understand the concept of leverage when they bought, they might be unfortunate enough to be provided with a good but expensive lesson with the inevitable future increases in financing charges.
“Smart people don’t need leverage, and stupid people shouldn’t have it”
—- Warren Buffett
#1 FTB:
more importantly yet is the question:
what about “pent up demand”?
#1 FTBuyer: According to Agent Will it is and it’s getting really high. But he says that it’s no big deal at this time of year. http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
Will also had the stats up yesterday and he had some pretty bearish things to say going forward. He sets us up with the details of a perfect storm. Got to say, I like his reasoning on his prediction for what the Feds might do (only decrease the amortization period) to halt or at least deflate a real estate bubble while leaving the rest of a struggling economy alone. http://agentwill.com/statistics/december-2009-vancouver-real-estate-stats-released/
Seeking Alpha asks:
Two questions remain, though: Are there millions of unsold homes waiting to come on the market this spring? Also, did the tax credit simply bring forward demand, leaving the market in a state of hangover when it ends? The answer to the first question is unclear but the answer to the second one is likely yes.
BDC,
Which people in the States were almost wiped out owning 200K properties? The ones who had no income, no collateral & no ability to pay? The ones on liar loans? They were as good as wiped out when they signed the mortgage docs.
Here in LotusLand a lot of people built up a lot of equity over the past few years. They can sit on a 20% decline. Many people do. Quebecers sat on 50% declines many a times from 1976 onwards. Where were they going to go? Ontario? It was full. Where are Vancouverites gonna go should their RE decline 20%? Halifax? Why bother?
A percentage point or two in interest won’t wipe the majority of people out. We’d require a ‘perfect storm’ to see a 20% decline in prices in 2010. No chance if BOC isn’t planning on budging rates until 2011. And they won’t if Bernake doesn’t. And Bernake won’t if he fears a double dip, 1930s type scenario, which he seems to. I think it’s ‘Rock On’ for 2010 and us bears have to grin and bear if for at least another 12 months.
I am praying for pent-up-demand on the sell side to come in the Spring but the nutty Vancouverites will probably snap everything up. I can’t BELIEVE what’s been sold in my neighbourhood (and for solid prices) over the holidays. Yes! That’s over the holidays. Un-f-ing-believable. Sorry, WoW.
Yes VD – but is MOI rising!:)
WoW
VD – let’s see how the next few weeks look…
You know what irritates me, WoW? Aside from the fact that the 2-bed condo down the street just sold for 790K (it was 320K 9 years ago) and you need to walk up 4 flights of stairs to get to the crapper, it’s the fact that the government wouldn’t even be thinking of tightening up CMHC insurable mortgages if Toronto wasn’t in a bubble. And that’s with a Western PM. If it were only Vancouver that inflated and inflated and inflated away with low interest rates and stupid low down payments, they wouldn’t give a sh*t! Don’t you agree?
Hey German Guy,
Daily Mail backs up your comments about quality buildings in Germany. Maybe you should write a book about Vancouver (in German) with pics called: New and Improved: My Year in Vancouver.
Mail: Britain falls to 25th best place to live in the world…
“Even former Communist countries where unemployment is still rife are considered better places to live. The Czech Republic and Lithuania were not even accepted into the European Union until 2004″. “The U.S.A dropped from third to seventh place this because of last year’s economic collapse. ‘Sustaining the American Dream has escalated out of the reach of many,’ said a magazine spokesman”. Germany, which comes fourth in the overall survey, is widely praised for its efficiency and leisure facilities. The survey notes: “In Germany, everything works and works well. Its houses are built to last, and their legendary autobahns are still mostly without speed limits”.
“Here in LotusLand a lot of people built up a lot of equity over the past few years.”
…..they also used (liberated) said equity to
buy other toys and yet more real estate
this will truly be a “swimming naked” moment
If rates rise and things get tight, do you think people might start cashing in their $3000 dogs?
VD
I am increasingly LESS frustrated by the insanity. I feel that the end-game is beginning – if not, heck renting is cheap! I don’t have an issue with it. Mrs. WoW cannot convince me otherwise – I am at a strange sense of peace – I think its because the show is almost ending for most and will begin for us bears.
Toronto-centric – u probably have a point…Calgary is 13% off peak pricing though….
Local market – anyone else ’sense’ that things have changed? Kinda a ‘its here’ (olympics) stunned sense of…uncertianty?
Got rising MOI?
BDC:
I’ll give you a few examples of real life losses (acquaintances 0f mine).
One of them purchased a home in Simi Valley for $900,000…a pretty boring suburb of Ventura County that is heavily white populated. The guy put 30% down and now the house is worth about $650K at best. Typical McMansion.
The other acquaintance purchased a home in the Glendale area for about $885K…it’s worth about $700K now.
These properties are still overpriced if you ask me. We have another 10-20% to go before things make sense.
By the way, both these people have very good pay…they are not wiped out but they are stuck for years to come.
They are stuck, Noz. Because Simi is like a desert. You can build, build, build in every direction. Not exactly the same thing in the heart of Vancouver. You can only really go up or go into that mud suction pile east of Main St.
Wow, Really and truly, I’m not sensing anything yet that favours your point of view. I will post when and if I see it. All I know is that if this market can last as long as Tiger Woods can avoid the media and his mother-in-law, we are f*ked!
Wow,
Would a person who bought 5 years ago be able to withstand a 20% depreciation? Probably, if they keep their job and haven’t lived off their line of credit for the last few years. Additionally, many of these people would have doubled downed, and purchased a second property, so many of them will be more leveraged than would first appear.
On the other hand, I’m not so sure about those who bought during the great sub- prime bubble of 09′. How many of these 5/35 buyers are truly in a position to withstand even the slightest bump in carrying costs? At the prices they payed over the last few months, they could be underwater in heart beat. The reason for all this cheap and easy money is that there were not enough legitimate buyers around to prop up the market— why else do it? Hell, I could walk into the Royal Bank today purchase a $500,000 property and have more cash in my bank at the end of the day than I did at the start.
And no, people who lose their homes in Vancouver wont move to Ontario. They will just do what they did in Phoenix—- rent the house next door.
Who was wiped out in the States? People with $50,000 salaries and $200,000 mortgages. Who will be wiped out in Vancouver? People with $50,000 salaries and $500,000 mortgages.
You mention other cities that had precipitous drops in real estate prices without much economic fallout, but at the end of the day a 50% drop in Montreal at that time would have been what in actual dollars? $20,000?
The point is: people need to discuss Vancouver real estate in terms of dollars— and not percentages— to get a true understanding of the potential risks associated with it. For example, that person in Montreal during 76′ might have been risking three times his salary on his $40, 000 home, whereas the recent purchaser of Vancouver housing is risking up to 10 times their annual salary.
Go check out the U.S. treasury yield curve that the NY Times publishes: I’m not sure governments are in that much control over the long end. Nevertheless, don’t forget we are re talking 35 year amortizations— who cares if interest rates don’t rise for a year.
Will Vancouver real estate appreciate in 2010? Well, from my experience, virtually every citizen in Vancouver believes that we have bottomed both economically and in real estate. So there will be no shortage of willing buyers, and as long as the Government is willing and able to underwrite virtually all new home buyers, prices wont collapse.
However, I’m even starting to hear some of the more notorious bulls suggest that prices might be stagnant for a few years. Want to bet that this become the ubiquitous sentiment over the next few months? As this point of view will surely be pumped in the media tomorrow, if it is being pumped on blogs today.
However, the bear argument has nothing to do with upside potential, and has everything to do with down side risk.
Will Vancouver real estate go up or down in 2010? Don’t know, and don’t care.
Would I invest in it during this time, at these prices, with these economic conditions? Not in a million years. The risk is just too great, relative to any potential upside.
Note to SenorCaballero… There’s a big one stuck in the blog machinery….
FTB/11, I’ve been thinking up trade names for — forgive me — pug sausage for a little while now. “Pugsciutto” and “Yaletown Pork” are the frontrunners.
BOC
Great post. Keep ‘em coming.
BDC, I think you are looking at a home too much as an investment. Risk is an individual thing. Do you have a stable job and can you afford the product you want? Do you want to live there for a number of years? If so, who cares about the market? I think the last 12 months have shown the folly of trying to time the market.
# 9 VD
you are right, things work in germany , probably better than in many countries, I just wish we had more Provence lifestyle, but then it wont be germany anymore I guess. The autobahn I miss it a bit, not only for the thrill of the speed but mainly for the orderly drive, people drive on the right side. I still cant figure that out here, why everydody drives on the left lane when the right lane is free? But i guess I will have to get used to it.
As for other efficencies, I am still waiting my appointment with an ORL doctor for march 17 to check my sinus problem, this since nov/dec 09. Will keep you posted how that goes, hope to get it diagnosed by middle of next year…
Here is some personal experience regarding house quality here. First, I rented a house on marine drive white rock because my wife liked the area and we were thinking we will get less rain than the rest of vancouver. Well, there is a railway track along the marine drive with a train every 1 to 2 hours that blows the horn all night. it was a nightmare! For me all those houses on white rock hills and along marine drive are worth nothing for as long as the train is there. It was simply horrible. Our neighbours said they were used and did not here it but it was impossible for us to get used to it.
I see that the rail track goes along marine drive to horse shoe bay in west vancouver as well, and I guess that if it blows the horn at night like in white rock, those multimillion dollar houses there aren’t worth much either in my opinion. It is a pity because those aeras are well located, I just don’t know how the residens can put up with such noise at night. Is there a quiet residential place out there in this city?
Now I rent a new house deeper in white rock / south surrey that was built 2 years ago. I rent it for 2500 a month and according the bc assessment site it is assessed at 1.2m. I don’t here the stupid train anymore but since last month there is a new house construction going on not too far… I guess I am not being lucky. When temperature dropped below zero in December, I could not get the inside temperature more than 19 degrees with all the heaters on. I had to go and buy extra heaters to heat the place. Then I look at the heaters power, house volume and walls and according my calculations the heating system is designed for 20 to 22 degree inside temperature when outside temperature is 8 to 10. If temperature is below then good luck. I guess this problem is fairly common. Also I am horrified by the amount of energy you need to heat the place. Good thing energy is not so expensive here!
The main problem with houses I see here is that as soon as you start getting closer to them and look into detail, you realize that most of them have very poor finishing, and generally are lousy construction jobs, you just have to start looking into details. There is nothing to be said about design and architecture here because really there is not much, I have seen some nice houses south of Grandville but they are a minority and on some of them the renovation done spoils the charm more than anything else. Designers in this city are obsessed with kitsch. It is my overall impression. Kitsch is everywhere, that is why it goes unnoticed to the locals I guess. There are real eyesores along Kingsway, Burnaby till Vancouver with all Chinese, Indian and other shops crowded by ads and banners, if you ever been to India or China, you know what I am talking about. Let alone surrey and Richmond! In Germany if you want to change the façade or put smth on your façade or build / renovate you have to go through a city counsel of architects to get approval. I don’t know how it works here, but if such counsel of architects exists and allow such architectural monstrosities to be build, then surely they are not doing their job.
I also have seen some brand new multimillion dollar houses with huge chandeliers just 1,5meters above the bathtub! I don’t know if there is some safety inspection of the houses but many of them would not pass basic electrical safety tests from what I have seen. Oh well, better stop…seems that we will get some sunshine today, so I will go prepare my ski gear.
VD, I agree with you regarding your points on developing new land. It’s easy in some areas like Phoenix, LA suburbs or say Alberta. Firstly, those places have lots of land available to develop. Secondly, the land in those areas can be really easy to develop. The same is not true for the Lower Mainland. There is hardly any vacant land north of the Port Mann. Development is complicated in BC for all sorts of reasons. It’s not easy to add product to the market. It takes a lot of time and money. With a growing population, difficult development and high land and construction costs, I have trouble picturing any substantial correction in prices. If prices were to drop 20%, new construction would drop massively and it wouldn’t take long for there to be a supply shortage.
will this encourage more china buying here?
Breaking News
China surprises with yield hike
Markets worry about imminent interest rate rise to cool growth and inflation after first increase in three-month bill yields since August
Lu Jianxin and Jacqueline Wong
Thursday, January 07, 2010
SHANGHAI — China’s central bank surprised markets on Thursday by raising the interest rate on its three-month bills for the first time since August, intensifying its grip on liquidity a day after it promised to keep credit growth in check.
While analysts said the move was just a withdrawal of surplus cash in the system, markets feared the worst, taking it as a sign the central bank could be getting ready to use more forceful measures to cool growth and fight inflation, such as raising benchmark lending rates.
The move was accompanied by the biggest weekly net drain from money markets in 11 weeks.
The prospect of a tougher policy stance from Beijing sent Chinese shares tumbling and hit a range of commodities, as investors feared that putting the brakes on growth could weaken the appetite of the world’s third-largest economy for steel, copper and other resources needed to fuel it.
But analysts said the move should be seen more as an effort by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to even out the flow of liquidity into the system, in particular to press banks not to repeat the start-of-the-year rush to lend that marked 2009.
“We don’t read much into this as this is a one-off case,” said Chris Leung, economist with DBS in Hong Kong.
“Monetary accommodation will remain in place and though overall bank lending will be lesser this year than the last, it is still too early to talk about a withdrawal.”
The PBOC on Thursday sold three-month bills at a yield of 1.3684 per cent, up 4.04 basis points from 1.3280 per cent last week, the level it has kept over the past four months.
China’s key stock index fell 1.9 per cent as the move sparked worries about a possible imminent interest rate hike.
Meanwhile, the yuan hit a one-month high against the dollar in benchmark offshore one-year non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) on expectations of higher rates.
Offshore non-deliverable interest rate swaps rose across the board. One-year NDIRS rose to a 16-month intraday high of 2.19 per cent, up 14 basis points from 2.05 per cent at Wednesday’s close and the 10-year NDIRS gained as much as 14 bps to 4.39 per cent.
Dave,
I’m not sure you can think of a six figure purchase as anything else but an investment.
Risk is quantifiable— risk tolerance is individual.
Yes to all the above; however, having the ability to purchase an asset and the will to do it are two different things. You can live anywhere in this city without incurring the risks or costs associated with ownership.
If you don’t want to sell then you don’t need to worry about the market, but what if you have to sell?
Timing any market is a mug’s game, particularly, one that is subject to political manipulation, which is exactly the reason why it is so important to fully understand the risk associated with your decisions.
V-Dog#6:
Buy a house in Phoenix like <a href=”http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/11453_West_Virginia_Avenue,_Avondale,_AZ_85392/”>this one </a> for the low $200s at the peak. Put 25% down (approx. $50,000) at a teaser rate. Don’t lie on your application. Have a kid. Come renewal time find prices falling, and your teaser rate much higher. Can it wipe you out? Sure. Remember, that house was valued in the low $200s at the peak and sold for $65k recently.
Still, you’re right. Given our mortgage rules a point or two increase won’t result in the foreclosure wave we’ve seen (and will see) in the US.
Great term for you that I ran across at Greg Swann’s blog yesterday talking about Phoenix values – “unstimulated demand”. End of the tax credit sort of thing and the result on supply (good for investors patient for cashflow). I’m sure bears will be able to make use of the term in regard to interest rates here in Canada. I agree, though, that your reasoning on rates is rock solid. A bubble far away from Canada, in a little place called Vancouver, won’t influence the Feds too much. Until the economy has conclusively moved west the mysterious east will dictate economic policy (and a western PM from the NCC coalition with a hidden agenda, despite being undefeated and still champ, has to take political realities into account. There’s no votes for him to win here. He needs more n Ontario and Quebec. It was ever thus).
“…that mud suction pile east of Main St…” How far east of Main does that run?
BDC:
“They will just do what they did in Phoenix—- rent the house next door”. Anecdotally I know of this happening in Phoenix. Numbers make sense, right? Buy for the pmt on a $150k mortgage or rent for $750.
“I’m even starting to hear some of the more notorious bulls suggest that prices might be stagnant for a few years. ”
I’m not a bull, but my sentiment tends that way. Prices are sticky on the way down, but they can’t go up forever. A real crash needs a NEE, and we’ve seen that it needs to be major, because this market has taken a few curveballs so far. Stagnation seems like a fair bet.
HP:
Can’t find it. Post or comment?
German Guy:
Awesome post!
rob:
Phoenix and/or Las Vegas has substantial
longterm downside risk due to lack of water
That $65K place will be worth less than the cost of
an airline ticket to get there….. caveat emptor
Blueskies:
A lot of people believe that. On the other hand, the ingenuity displayed by our southern cousins in getting water they need has been impressive in the past. My jury is therefore still out on the water question. I kind of believe if we face the choice of good, prudent environmentalism or more water for putting greens we’ll figure out a way to choose the later. (You know that sometimes the Colorado River never makes it all the way to the sea? Too much water gets taken out.)
“Do you have a stable job and can you afford the product you want?”
What one can afford today at absolute rock bottom interest rates and peak valuations is not what someone can afford tomorrow And few Joe “how much a months” think beyond tomorrow or do prudent calculations of what they can afford IF interest rates rise, wages are frozen or rolled back, or one income earner is out of a job. If “prudence” reigned supreme in people’s calculations, we would not be in the current situation…
Re: “stagnation” because people can hang on — are we talking stagnation of prices (what buyers & sellers care about) or stagnation of sales (what Realtors care about)? Prices are set at the margins — it doesn’t matter if 95% people can hang on, it’s the 5% who can’t, combined with the rapidly diminishing pool of qualified buyers as interest rates go up who set current prices.
German Guy,
I really enjoyed reading your post. Thanks for the info on White Rock area LOL, I had no clue.
Rob “A real crash needs a NEE, and we’ve seen that it needs to be major, because this market has taken a few curveballs so far” — Dumb question, what’s NEE stand for? I’m guessing Negative External Event? In that case don’t you think that prices weren’t all that sticky when interest rates briefly rose in 2008 by a couple of points?
Rob — “..On the other hand, the ingenuity displayed by our southern cousins in getting water they need has been impressive in the past…” — That’s what the Romans said.
BDE — Great post, totally agree about framing the debate in terms of $$ instead of %%. I don’t think the average buyer today assesses the downside risk adequately.
German Guy,
You are a racist pig. This is not the first time you make racist comments against the immigrants here, I will find you and denounce and hope you go to jail. Here it is Canada and if you hope that you can do to the Indians and Chinese what you did to the jews, better go to your stupid country. We dont need you here.
Uhhhhh Proud Indian… you’re offside. I’m not seeing racist anything in GG’s synopsis of the difference in commercial signage in Europe vs. Canada. It’s true we have many streets that allow loud awnings and signs with no respect for the architecture. Although I’ve never been to Germany, I’ve been to Holland (I know, I know… one has nothing to do with the other) and I can tell you that commercial signs there are forced by council to respect the architecture.
Personally, I think City Counsel must think of Kingsway as a throwaway street. That’s why they allow throw away signage. It is an eyesore but it also matches the architecture perfectly. They whole thing just yells throughfare. How you can jump on GG like that is disgusting, quite frankly. Go back to lurking and not posting please.
German Guy,
Just curious–when you say kitsch, what exactly are your referring to? Like the cutsieness of certain shops or the way interior designers design trendy interiors… the kind that you see in staged open houses? I’m curious about the difference you see here? Also, aren’t you a bit tired of all the seriousness of European design? Having to respect each and every detail in a building, all the history, heavy wood furniture inherited from grandma and grandpa. Isn’t it a little bit fun to stick bubble gum coloured furniture in your new build apartment if that’s what turns you on?
A little unsolicited advice for you…so don’t take offence… as I live 5,000 miles away from my home too even though my home is in Canada–don’t look for Germany here as I don’t look for Montreal here. You’ve got to forget everything you love from home if you want to make a successful transition. The bread, the brick, the buildings and embrace what’s here otherwise you’re doomed to spend your time here longing for home. I remember when I first moved here I refused to meet with any other Montrealers because all they did was whine and complain: the coffees not right, who serves something in a paper cup that’s comes out of a thermos… the bread tastes funny, so does the water… the locals are self-righteous (OK that one I still can’t get over)… and they don’t know how to mind their own business… they’re too law-abiding and behave like hall monitors… there’s no decent french food… I could go on an on but I suggest you get out in the mountains and enjoy the rain.
German Guy,
I see you a real eyesore with your post # 21.
To all,
I think I’m right too. This year I’ve decided to be less delusional (although I still harbour my bear fantasies and it wouldn’t take much for them to come out again) because this year I either want to be right (I predicted a 10% rise in house prices for 2010) or I want to ENJOY being wrong.
Turkey/18, you should go on Dragon’s Den with an idea like that
VD, I am glad to see that you are coming around. You are now more officially bullish than yours truly. I think we are in for a relatively flat year with a minor amount of price appreciation early in the year. However, unlike you, I plan to enjoy being right.
Wait. Up to 10% rise in house prices. Not necessarily 10%. But unfortunately, I don’t see prices going down with continued slutty money sloshing about.
FTB/Turk… this one’s for you guyz…
[HuffPo] Pugs Who Ate Owner Get New Home
http://tinyurl.com/yersasu
(However, I think I would have gone with the leader, ‘When Harry Met Sally’… and how certain can the cops really be that their owner’s demise was self-inflicted? I say the Pugs did it!)…
More to follow, when I resurrect the lost comment…
PS – VD, I believe you may soon enjoy being ‘wrong’ (while – in the holistic scheme of things – HP will hate being ‘right’)….
HP – you think VD will be ‘wrong’ and enjoy it – please elaborate – and on the ’soon’ as well – what are you thinking?
41
Take your ADD meds – its the same 6 people posting on here – you know everyones position. Dave is bullish; VD is now more bullish; HP/Turkey/WBWYCR/BS are bears.
Shorting China
“Mr. Chanos is warning that China’s hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like “Dubai times 1,000 — or worse,” he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.”
interesting read…….
http://tinyurl.com/y9u9ydr
Blueskies 10: (Or anyone who knows)
Have you seen any real stats on HELOCS or cash-out refi’s for Canada, better yet BC?
We really have a data deficit, not sure whether it is deliberate or apathy. I can’t see any possible profit motive in compiling the data, just good personal decision-making input, so it would have to come from government or academia.
I would really like to know just how much Canadians have been taking out equity. Sure is enough home equity loan advertising, there must be a market.
Anon 42 – you are a moron.
Interest rates going up around the world.
HP thinks VD will be happy because its coming. The ground is rumbling beneath your feet.
Breaking News
China’s rate increase a turning point in Asian economy
China’s surprise move to cool down its economy by tightening the supply of money causes ripples through financial markets
Tavia Grant
Thursday, January 07, 2010
It was just a shade over four basis points – that’s 4/100ths of a percentage point – but the People’s Bank of China’s decision to boost a key interest rate signals what economists see as a turning point in the hot Asian economy.
China’s central bank surprised markets Thursday by raising the rate on three-month bills for the first time in almost five months, following recent warnings from government officials that they must keep an eye on inflation and potential asset bubbles.
The move sent ripples through financial and commodity markets as investors speculated that monetary authorities could be preparing to act more aggressively by making moves such as raising benchmark rates.
“That’s the latest sign that China is shifting course, and follows on comments from policy officials and Premier [Wen] Jiabao regarding the dangers of overly rapid loan growth and easy credit insofar as the property market and inflation are concerned,” Scotia Capital said in a research note.
Unlike many other countries pummelled by recession, China is again on the road to rapid economic growth.
Thursday’s move to raise borrowing costs should take some of the heat out of the economy. The central bank offered 60 billion yuan ($9-billion) of bills at a yield of 1.3684 per cent, about four basis points higher than last week’s sale. It’s the first time since August that the yields have changed. Economists expect China’s economy to grow 9.4 per cent this year.
“You’ve still got the Chinese growth story,” said HSBC Securities (Canada) economist Stewart Hall, who pegs the country’s economic expansion at 9.5 per cent. “But it’s a story that’s being managed, and, indeed, that’s what we want to see.”
A far more dangerous path would be to allow its economy to advance unfettered, which would be “potentially destabilizing” down the road, he said. Banks poured $1.35-trillion (U.S.) in loans into the system last year, an unprecedented amount, and inflation is picking up while property and equity prices are veering into bubbling territory.
Others concur, saying investors may be misguided in pushing a panic button.
“People are afraid that the tightening would potentially derail the recovery, but they’re not going to be tightening unless they’re certain things are going well and will continue to improve,” said Benjamin Reitzes, an economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns.
“Their target is to have 8-per-cent-plus growth and they’re not going to sabotage their own target by tightening too much.”
China’s consumer prices increased by an annualized 0.6 per cent in November, the first rise in 10 months, driven by hotter food prices. Garlic is one example of food inflation, where rising demand and speculative cash have caused prices to surge as much as 40-fold, according to news reports. Consumers are hoarding garlic as a result.
Property values, too, have been soaring. China’s property prices climbed in November at the fastest pace since July, 2008, and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has expressed concern about the rapid increase.
China’s monetary policy this year aims to maintain growth while managing inflation, the country’s central bank said Wednesday. Its priorities have tilted toward inflation after economic growth accelerated to an annualized 8.9 per cent in the third quarter of last year, the fastest in a year.
The goal is “a stable and relatively fast rate of economic growth” and to “effectively manage inflation expectations,” the central bank said.
Other countries in the region, too, are shifting gears. Australia’s central bank raised borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point last month following similar moves in November and October. The South Korean central bank, which meets Friday, will probably raise its benchmark rate, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, by contrast, are expected to leave interest rates on hold in the coming months. Excess capacity and still sluggish demand mean the inflation outlook remains tame.
This from HP:
Hello All… and fond best wishes for a Very Happy New Year! (or for those of you on Orthodox time, Merry Christmas!).
Well, better ‘late to the party’ than a 2010 predictions no-show… Accordingly, without further ado – here are HP’s GlobalMacro and YVR RE prognostications for the Year of the White [Metal] Tiger…
First up, Scarcity – starting with the ‘little’ things, like these…
[UK Independent] Concern as China clamps down on rare earth exports
http://tinyurl.com/ye59w7m
However, this will soon escalate into less esoteric commodities… (look for volatility trending upward in energy/agriculturals/precious & strategic metals markets; principal drivers are looming geopolitical developments in the MidEast and South Asia combined with sovereign strategic hoarding/GlobalMacro speculation and – of course – climate change)… e.g.
[NYT] Oil Surges Above $81, Driven by Several Factors
http://tinyurl.com/yz2399g
Followed by Protectionism… Bilateral bickering has already begun – and is typified by squabbles like this….
[NYT] U.S. slaps levy on Chinese pipes
With this one:
http://tinyurl.com/yacg7jp
more ominously, now that the ASEAN FTZ is a fait accompli will hemispheric trade/resource ‘competition’ supplant current multi-lateral/polar global regimes? (A very big/noteworthy PS here – in a surprisingly pragmatic/realpolitik frame of mind, Australia and New Zealand have signed on to ASEAN’s FTZ as well)…
[NYT] Asia Free-Trade Zone Raises Hopes, and Some Fears About China
http://tinyurl.com/ybzoaqx
[TomDespatch] Tomgram: Michael Klare, The Blowback Effect, 2020
http://tinyurl.com/yg9qbj8
….Well, as the Brits are wont to say, “Funny old world, eh what?” – and, evidently, these things are now just ‘funny’ enough to spoil the DCIA’s lunch in ‘TylerDurden’s’ most excellent piece (not quite as tongue in cheek as it might appear at first glance – footnote: HP never did lunch with the DCIA, but did manage cocktails with the DDI)…
[ZeroHedge] My Lunch With the CIA
http://tinyurl.com/ydfggo5
So, just what is – now – the ‘new normal’… (at least for us poor NorteAmericanos)?… and what are the implications for 2010?
Hmm… Sometimes, a quick glance in the rear view mirror can be as or more instructive about where you’re heading than the view ‘forward’, so try this….
[WaPo] Aughts were a lost decade for U.S. economy, workers
http://tinyurl.com/ydk3dcs
…and unfortunately, those jobs (well, at any rate, most of them) aren’t coming back…
[Vox] Farewell to the natural rate: Why unemployment persists
http://tinyurl.com/yzu4sqf
Which is also why you’re going to start seeing a lot more of this (and much, much closer to home than you might imagine)….
[UK Guardian] Iceland president vetoes collapsed Icesave Bank’s bill to UK
http://tinyurl.com/yjzbzda
…which means, as the WSJ says – that it’s time to start thinking about….
What a Sovereign-Debt Crisis Could Mean for You
http://tinyurl.com/ylpwekp
And if you made it to the end of that last piece you’re gonna Love the next one… Although HP should first mention that over the course of the holidays, he had occasion to enjoy refreshments with a China ‘watcher’ with extensive, recent ‘boots on the ground’ exposure. What he told me qualifies China as the real ‘wild card’ in this analysis – “It’s [Chinese prosperity] all held together with chicken wire and duct tape”. Yikes.
Bottom line? Barring a melt-down in China RE it will be business as usual for YVR RE (however, we won’t likely know which way the YVR RE winds are blowing until June at the earliest)….
[BloomBerg] China Property Bubble May Lead to U.S.-Style Real Estate Slump
http://tinyurl.com/yhlo9lt
Regardless, in the coming Year of The Tiger the ‘new normal’ will be characterized by expanding zones of conflict – see below…
[NYT] U.S. Widens Terror War to Yemen, a Qaeda Bastion
http://tinyurl.com/yjmhvq6
Which is a terrible pity, because – among other reasons -LosEstadosUnidas’ capability to prosecute these adventures is rapidly eroding…
[TomGram] An American World of War – What to Watch For in 2010
http://tinyurl.com/yc7tnku
and consequently, why the American polity is in accelerating terminal decline – as evinced by these… (PS – HP predicts the Democrats will lose control of both Houses of Congress in the 2010 November mid-terms and BarryO will not be returned to Pennsylvania Avenue in 2012)…
[OpenLeft] Why Democrats Are Trying To Commit Electoral Suicide
http://tinyurl.com/yf4fns4
[CreditWriteDown] The Democratic Party Meltdown of 2010
http://tinyurl.com/ye5vfox
[NYT] Democrats Wary as Two Senators Decide to Retire
http://tinyurl.com/ye57gkr
Meanwhile, back in the MapleSyrupRepublic, we have a few problems of our own… (and at the risk of disagreeing with our eminent host SenorCaballero, HP predicts that ElHarpo will contrive a federal election no later than July of this year and by May if he can manage it – and which he will win, with a majority)…
[G&M] Polarization, ad hoc alliances, fear of election
http://tinyurl.com/yeesoy8
All of which leaves HP in decidedly the same frame of mind as BobHerbert, with…
[NYT] An Uneasy Feeling
http://tinyurl.com/y993vu7
Discuss.
Rob
Let’s discuss the three new listings that have shown up in my search area.
Why are listings now outpacing sales?
knock knock
who’s there?
no one
no one who?
no one is going to buy your house that is who
this market will tank, might as well start now, I see NO reason for the crash not to begin today.
grab yer popcorn boys and girls
#32 Proud Indian
)
Be careful calling me names, I know some of those guys in the video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM&feature=player_embedded
Can’t happen here
Reis, a New York real estate research firm, says apartment vacancies hit a 30-year high in the fourth quarter of 2009. Vacancy rates hit 8%, the highest level since Reis started tracking 79 U.S. real estate markets in 1980. To keep tenants, landlords will do anything: lower the rent, shampoo your carpet, paint the walls… or give you a Starbucks gift card.
McLovin
That is why:
US real estate prices still have a lot of downside left
Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate prices are going to get crushed. Process should begin any month now. The prior ‘correction’ will look like a walk in the park compared to what is about to unfold.
But wait…you know that already!:)
http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Hotels+race+finish+before+Olympics/2413840/story.html
wonder how busy they will be in March?
wonder why the China stock market continues down…..hmmm….interesting….
i sold last night assuming subjects are removed
lost money but don’t want to lose more
i am nervous as economy is bad
why prices go up crazy
Phil Soper’s been out harvesting headlines again with his company’s prediction prices will continue to rise. ‘Appreciate significantly during the early months of the new year,’ he says. In fact, LePage claims Vancouver prices, for example, will be 7.2% higher in 2010, which would add another $66,000 to the value of the typical $920,000 standard two-storey boring house.
Now, I actually happen to agree with my buddy Phil. Prices will go up some. How could they not? Everyone knows mortgage rates will be higher in September than in February, that minimum down payments may rocket ahead to 10% in March and the HST is coming in July. What normal, house-lusting hormonal young couple still able to fog a lender’s mirror would not go out and buy before this stuff hits?
And what sane homeowner every remotely thinking of selling wouldn’t list in the next six weeks? I mean, this is the top of the mountain. The only direction for the Sherpas now is down.
flubs
Where did you sell that you lost mulla? Market is hot, only a few percent below its peak of a couple of years back – market is almost back to where it was. Almost. And Royal LePage thinks its going higher. And higher.
Did you grow up in a garbage dump – don’t you know what time it is out there? Out here on the street and you don’t even know what time it is?
Wake up. Snort some coffee.
agentWill indicates a possible record for first week Jan listings pace – volume of new listings at unheard of levels. MOI will explode. FTB I bugged you, but I know you are a bear, just WAIT donkeymonkey, give it time my man!
Will quote:
Listings are naturally outpacing sales but the rate that they are doing so is going to set the MOI watchers and bears on fire. We’re on pace for over 1100 new listings in the first week of the year, a new record, I believe.
Interesting (AgentWill comments on listings surge).
If this is true, and if it continues for another week or two, I’d say the market is crashing now. This will be a process, but in the end most folks will look back and utter….
WoW…just WoW
And who can blame them!:)
Party on Dudes – bears, put on your dancing shoes. Its time.
RJ, if your around, keep your eyes and ears open and let us know what you see.
AC, its coming.
WhyBuy – its upon us. 2013 looms large.
BS, VD,
Whatcha think of the listings boom? Should we invest in For Sale sign manufacturing companies? Do you expect a run on “Price Reduced” and “New Price” stickers?
What say you?
ROB
CAN YOU CONFIRM IF LISTINGS ARE SURGING HIGHER? PERHAPS SALES ARE SLOW TO REPORT DUE TO THE HOLIDAYS AND PRIORITIZATION BY THE REAL ESTATE BOARD?
SORRY FOR THE CAPS MY KEYBOARD IS WONKY
THANKS
SAM
WoW:
got MOI?
Wow, I hope you are right
with 35 days to go and you haven’t rented out
your home to some Olympic fans
maybe listing it now would be a desirable option…….
of course if ”everybody” tried this…..
BS
Watch.
Wait.
Its coming.
Ps. Don’t blink, you’ll miss the first round of fireworks.
RJ
[...] from German Guy at robchipman.net 7 Jan 2010 8:51 am [...]
Bull Hubris?… Or Appropriate Owner Confidence? – “My property got assessed 20% higher than last year! Wooooohooo! I’m going to refinance for another house while you cry-babies live in the dumpsters.”
http://tinyurl.com/ydqfx2y
German Guy is a Nazi???
54, Why does everybody assume that anyone who’s bought recently must have somehow committed fraud on their mortgage application, or borrowed outside of their means? Any evidence to support that?
gloomy housing news from the US
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/10/magazine/10FOB-wwln-t.html?em
Walk Away From Your Mortgage!
But the housing collapse left 10.7 million families owing more than their homes are worth. So some of them are making a calculated decision to hang onto their money and let their homes go. Is this irresponsible?
Businesses — in particular Wall Street banks — make such calculations routinely. Morgan Stanley recently decided to stop making payments on five San Francisco office buildings. A Morgan Stanley fund purchased the buildings at the height of the boom, and their value has plunged. Nobody has said Morgan Stanley is immoral — perhaps because no one assumed it was moral to begin with.
Time will tell how things wash out in Vancouver. Two big arguments against a crash are
1) whenever there’s an asset bubble anywhere, $ goes to Vancouver
2) if an anticipated housing crunch is big enough to tank the whole economy, the gov’t will change the rules of the game and keep it from happening.
My $0.02.
Pretty soon the 8-year pre-Olympic hype will be over, and the aftermath will begin…
WBWUCR’t'13?
p.s. hey– my landlord gave me a Starbucks gift card for Christmas! And he installed a bunch of outlets in the basement just because I asked him to…
Ding ding ding! CanWest has put its papers under bankruptcy protection.
We now move on to speculation phase 2: Do they shutter the National Post? (Alas and adieu, Terence Corcoran…) Do they consolidate the execrable Province with the merely disappointing Vancouver Sun? Discuss.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/unemployment+rate+creeps+December/2420123/story.html
Higher unemployment in BC – good for the RE market? What happens to employment post O?
Also, what do you make of the surge in listings – are we looking for a record month of new listings?
#69 turkey:
apparently both the Sun and Province are
profitable on their own but can’t generate
the amount of cash required to repay Canwests’
massive debt load……
analogy:
the tenants in the basement are paying their rent
but not enough to cover a huge mortgage for
the homedebtor….. life goes on!
Good Morning, All… an eclectic goody-bag from the past 24hr’s of the ‘cycle’… And yes, things are decidely ‘heating’ up! (and Kudos to BS/43 for Chanos link – much the same has been on HP’s mind since conversing with my ‘own’ China guy)….
Let’s start with GlobalMacro….
[Guardian] 1970s-style rationing as National Grid cuts off gas to factories
http://tinyurl.com/ybxd9k4
[G&M] World currency tensions grow
http://tinyurl.com/ycrnets
[FinSense] Yemen: Behind Al-Qaeda Scenarios, A Geopolitical Oil Chokepoint to Eurasia
http://tinyurl.com/ycsu3ry
[G&M] Court blocks Argentina debt plan
http://tinyurl.com/y8c4ta6
[ZeroHedge] HFT Market Making May Lead to a Crash
http://tinyurl.com/y9ouw7j
Re: that last link - ‘old-timers’ here will recall that ‘robotic’ high frequency program trading brought down the NYX in ‘87… just sayin’….
And now for some more entertaining fare (the last of which will doubtless prove particularly amusing to GG –
)…
[RollingStone/Taibbi] Fannie, Freddie, and the New Red and Blue
http://tinyurl.com/yep7y7f
[HuffPo] Who Can You Trust?
http://tinyurl.com/yjacben
[TomDispatch] Tomgram: Orville Schell, What Doesn’t Work in America
http://tinyurl.com/y9vwvuw
Turkey:
They better not shut down the NP/FP. I love the editorials. Always food for thought.
BTW, what are your thoughts on Levitt/Dubner? Smart, careful researchers or muckraking media whores? (Not to present only extremes!
)
RE: the market. It doesn’t feel like crash time to me. Sorry, all. 2008 seemed way different. I think we’re in breath hold mode for the Olympics, frankly.
ADD guy….why do you keep posting under other names….your style is pretty easy to determine here an on other sites such as Turner’s (aka Taco, Not Garth)…and where is this crack about 1100 new listings….looking at agent will’s site, looks like listings have fallen off the map….I guess just more wishing eh
WoW,
Where are you getting your surge of listings from. Rob states, “Total active listings in Greater Vancouver currently sit at 8,939, a decrease of 41 per cent from December 2008, and a decrease of 19 per cent from November 2009.”
Agent Will’s listings are more or less at the same level? Come on now…
check http://www.agentwill.com, go to weekly stats, bottom of the page you will see agent will’s comments from last night – amazing.
see for yourself and let me know your thoughts.
http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
fair enough – he does say on pace for 1100 new listings – not 1100 new listings – sounds like some projecting going on
78
You are a good man.
What do you think – any predictions/projections?
caught me by surprise – but think it will be dead for a couple of months until the Olympics are over and the much anticipated flood of foreign visitors either buy or just go back home
Will Wertheim says:
January 7, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Funny you should ask. Listings are naturally outpacing sales but the rate that they are doing so is going to set the MOI watchers and bears on fire. We’re on pace for over 1100 new listings in the first week of the year, a new record, I believe.
Why should we expect prices to go down now? An average potential buyer is looking at the cheapest rental money ever ($400K for < $1400/month), with the fear of reducecd amortizations and higher rates ahead (better get in now). The Olympics haven’t occurred yet, the economy is recovering from ’scorched earth’ last year, and mainstream pundits are calling for further price increases. Party On, we’re not at ‘last call’ yet.
Re: Levitt/Dubner – had me at Freakonomics and Sumo wrestlers fixing matches, lost me at Freakonomics 2 and geo-engineering to solve climate change.
Purp:
See, you’re onto me already. Did you see the excerpts from Super Freakonomics in the NP? What I found interesting was that they addressed what I see as a big stumbling block. I often hear pro AGW people say “Do your own research and read the science. No intelligent person who understands anything could disagree with the obvious facts” There are variations, of course, with the liberal use of moron and idiot (Noz? You listening?) but the effect is to define the question on the basis of which side is smarter or better educated as opposed to the facts of the matter.
Dubner and Levitt talk to some guys who are undoubtedly smart (Bill Gates referred to one of them as the smartest guy he’d ever met) and they throw a ton of tomatoes at the run of the mill AGW position. Noz may be able to say that I’m an uneducated moron when I disagree with him, but Levitt, Dubner and the smartest guy Bill Gates ever met? They’re morons too? Again, I’m not saying that AGW isn’t real. I’m just saying the import of it has been communicated terribly, and I think Super Freakonomics supports my position on that.
yup Purp, that must explain the flood of listings too, eh!
stop jinxing yourself – just adopt the bull reasoning for once and then maybe you will be pleasantly surprised for once instead of constantly disappointed
repeat: vancouver RE prices will go up; the Olympics will be fantastic and bring many many investors; taxes and interest rates will stay down; etc – repeat
@Anon : No, it doesn’t explain the flood of listings. What do you think is causing the ‘flood’ of listings?
My point is that from the point of view of the average buyer it’s not a bad time to buy, bear arguments and fundamentals aside. Certainly nothing much has changed over the past year, so why should we expect a change.
So, I have prodded 2 mortgage brokers, and both have deals that will get me into a $550K house with a suite, and use the income of the 2BR unit as attached income. My household income is $75K, and with the suite is $85k
I am looking at a 5/35 @3.9 % on 500,000 that puts my payments somewhere near 2400/month – rental income = basic rent of 1400, and I am in a nice house. In 5 years, refinance at whatever rate there is at the time, without requalifying, if I stay with the same Lender. My broker thinks rates will stay low for a long time… I am skepitcal…
So what is wrong with this picture? (I am hoping someone will talk me out of this…)
Rob, I read Freakonomics and found the authors Terribly Clever (and all too ready to put on their Terribly Clever hats.) There was some good material in there, to be sure, but putting an “enfant terrible” label on yourself is generally a sign that you’re expecting serious criticism and are prepared to deflect it with more Cleverness.
Also, for guys that are explicitly addressing the unexpected social repercussions of arbitrary decisions, I found their book cover to be among the worst I’ve ever seen.
(For the Globe and Mail’s equivalent, see Margaret Wente, of whom I’m also not terribly fond.)
Purp
Good point, fair enough. But, here are some things that might seep through and change greed to something else:
- Vancouver Sun and Vancouver Province papers declared bankruptcy this morning
- BC Unemployment rate went up in December
- RBC report published this week indicates BC (more so than any province) population has lowest confidence in economy and highest fear for jobs
- China is raising rates/policies to cool down RE speculation (and the topic of China bubble is making it to the headlines of major papers around the world)
- the anticipation of the big O is almost done…and folks may be looking past to the other side of the rainbow
- fundamentals changing – well, supply appears to be growing – this is perhaps a signal as to how folks are thinking – I dunno, maybe not.
What say you? and appreciate your comments/counterpoints.
http://www.vancouversun.com/Canada+real+estate+market+analysts/2421518/story.html
Look Purp, hot off the presses – could this spook the masses? What say you?
Looks like MSM and some of the BANKS are now talking caution – is this a prelude to 10/30? and higher rates? A, I warned you, type build up?
Love this quote from the article…
“In the meantime, there are still many good reasons to buy a house, Strange said, “but don’t buy it because you think the price is going to go up.”
Ummmm…so why would you buy at the peak, and engage in bidding wars, if you did not think that prices were going to go up….they better cut that dose of common sense out of the article before the masses start thinking…
91
I like you. I like your handle too. Wish there were more like you.
Bet you are good looking, rich and a Mensa member too….
Are you RJ?
#44 AC
It is not possible to have detailed seperate statitisics regarding HELOC, morgages and defaults by type, unless you have insider information. The most information you can get is from CHMC annual report.
below is an article that discusses HELOC and some figures are given, but unless you want to spend your time going through CHMC and banks reports (especially with accounting rules relaxed – banks are not marking to market anymore ) all you can do is have a good guess. My guess is that when “le chateau de cartes” comes down, we will know more details as they might need a bail out.
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/609754
Rob, I read Frekonomics and really liked it. I didn’t read SuperFreakonomics but I saw a short piece on TV where they discuss their theory of global cooling and it really turned me off because I thought the analysis was far too superficial for such a complex topic. They’re smart guys, but the whole thing seemed like contrarianism to sell books and I felt like they stepped way out of their area of expertise.
No RJ…sorry…but then I would not want to be a young buck who so confidently repeats the mantra “the trend is your friend” despite heading into a mini-boom. I suppose that accounts for his absence.
As for your other questions, I will not answer. My “background” would paint too positive of a portrait to the point that my details would be deemed to be “hot air” despite being the truth. So sorry…
91, I think what they’re trying to say is that if you’re buying a place which you will make your primary residence for a long time (i.e. you won’t sell it into a fallen market), then it’s a good time to take advantage of the low interest rates/downpayments and long amortizations?
FTB
Ya, uh ha.
Let’s see what happens. Can someone ask Rob for a short-term snapshot on listings/sales trend this week – he won’t reply to me due to my halitosis.
96
I am sure that is what they are saying – but I am saying that after an 8 year stretch of price appreciation, price appreciation is on the minds of everyone even if they want to settle down for twenty years in the same spot, hence the willingness to engage in bidding wars (of course I believe that most people in the lower mainland now move on average every 5 – 7 years – read that stat somewhere).
I think the bidding wars, at least the ones I experienced, were more likely to be due to a shortage of decent supply. There was very little out there this summer, and a huge number of buyers competing for the places which represented good value for money. Not necessarily speculation.
FTB
Yes, I agree (to a point).
Looks like inventory may increase and sales may abate – what does this do to your outlook?
Any thoughts on the listings and MOI surge? Just temporary?
Yes, just temporary. I’ve not seen a “surge”, only a number of listings equivalent to the ones which would’ve have come up anyway had Christmas not been in the way.
FTB
Will says its a record surge….you don’t seem impressed.
FTB
You are diffucult to impress. Record listing surges are just blown off as ‘meaningless’.
You are quite impressive in your impassivity.
Maybe there has been a surge overall, I’m just going by the VOW email updates I get in my chosen market (currently under 100 listings, down from over 170 in summer)
WILL SAYS:
Ah, anticipation… let me look into my crystal ball and know that my crystal is no better nor worse than yours. Fact is that the market has been defying traditions for so many years as to question tradition altogether. As I stated in the monthly stats release post, NO ONE KNOWS what is going to happen. Looking over the past 15 years of data we are above average right now for listings coming on. We are at or near the top for sales. Demand is still outstripping supply as we are well below average for the number of active listings at this time of year. Traditionally we do experience a slowdown but that has not been the case this far.
I’m hearing him say the market it still hot. Am I crazy? Maybe. The only thing exciting for bears that he is saying is that the pace of new listings right this minute is high. But high in a low listings environment. A surge is a surge. Wasn’t there a surge in Iraq? What about the planned surge in Afghanistan. A surge, a victory does not make. Methinks it’s just all the people who planned to sell before the Olympics, now listing before the Olympics.
“Wasn’t there a surge in Iraq? What about the planned surge in Afghanistan. A surge, a victory does not make. ”
good war analogy !
maybe people are thinking this is the
end for further appreciation.
this could spook the speculator that
is holding for appreciation only
from weak hands to the strong
A surge in listings AND MOI….interesting…connect the dots…did u see what bmo said in that article? Read it.
Size of surge is not relative to size of inventory. Its a wave of listings that is unparalleled in modern history – albiet it only represents 4 days of data!:)
FTB – Christmas happens every year so that is not a relevant factor – it occurs the week before January every year (check your calendar).
FTB
Read Garth tonight – its good.
Wonder if the incessant rain will drive down moi….its surging, as you know…
got MOI?
surge (very descriptive word)
and the word “tank”
work well together
Rob, regarding AGW, I get where you’re coming from regarding how poorly the message has been sold about the science, the extent of the problem and required solutions. And I wonder, why the heck has it been so hard to sell, considering the strength of the science behind it? I think the biggest barrier might be that, if it’s as bad as advertised, there’s just no solution that’s palatable to the average person. Recycling ain’t gonna cut it nor is riding the bus. Even if we cut our emissions dramatically by forgoing all the luxuries we’ve become accustomed to, what about the developing world, which probably doesn’t want to forgo ‘progress’? Even if they do, what if the world population keeps growing exponentially, this will wipe out any reductions we make. The point is, it doesn’t take long before despair sets in at the enormity of the problem, and the human mind needs a way to cope, either by ignoring the problem or trying to rationalize away the evidence. This is why Dubner/Levitt geo-engineering ’solutions’ gain so much traction, I don’t have to do anything because technology will solve the problem for me.
So I think that’s it’s a lot more than just poor marketing, AGW is so complex and daunting and runs up against so many human traits (poor ability to assess long term risk, tragedy of the commons, etc.) that it may be impossible to get consensus on the required sacrifices.
Your smart Purp.
Which is why I’m surprised your not super bearish about local RE.
I am bearish on RE, just not short term (6-12 months), despite the largest wave of listings in recorded history
Some of these Olympic Hopefuls … and I mean landlords, not athletes… are totally delusional:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1544099247.html
and it’s going to take them quite a while to adjust to post-Olympic pricing. I bet you don’t start seeing these apartment showing up at market rates for months after the Olympics. But once they do, look out, it’ll be the surge to end all other surges!!!!
Word getting out?
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Canada+real+estate+market+analysts/2421518/story.htmlM
Rob, what Purp/111 said.
We’re already *doing* geoengineering — it’s important to situate AGW in that context. And, we’re just as able to modify our existing (disastrous) geoengineering campaign as we are to embark on new ones.
Purp’s right, there are some unpalatable changes required of us as soon as we accept that AGW is happening. However, there are a lot of changes that are not unpalatable at all, and have positive and even pleasant side effects. But, as Purp points out, we aren’t ready to consider them yet for psychological reasons. Marketing is just a convenient dartboard.
McLovin
U noticing a shift in sentiment? Could the listings wave be hit by an even larger buying volume?
Note, sales are about 2 weeks delayed….I think given holidays and weather, the sales volume for January will be somewhat sluggish…but much better than Jan 09….now, as we get into the heart of Spring, I think sales volumes YoY start to look weak, and that inventory, as we go into summer/fall even more so.
what say you?
Teacher layoffs considered as Richmond faces possible $9-million deficit
By Alan Campbell, Richmond NewsJanuary 8, 2010
METRO VANCOUVER — Laying off teaching staff is one of several options being considered as the Richmond School District faces a possible $9 million deficit in 2010/11.
But the actual number of layoffs — reported in some sections of the media as much as 250 positions
2 new For Sale signs on my run. Its a start. Still pretty sparse out there, addmittedly.
Unless we go to 12,000+ in a hurry, supply is pretty tight, imho.
That said, I’m bearish on:
- fundamental metrics
- weakening local economy
- pre(?)/post Owelympic impact
- China cooling of its market
- rising C$ impacting exports/jobs and desire of Asian’s to buy here (to a degree)
- mucky weather at the moment
- and HOPE and PRAYER (never hurts)
Hopefully January sees a continuation of declining sales we saw from early/mid December activity, and a continued surge of listings.
Rob, look forward to your stats update.
Be Well, and Prosper.
also, craigslist search parameters (rental) is much fuller than ever before…I think vacancy/rental rate suppression is also a bearish factor.
Bears, our time is here (perhaps), man thy battle stations.
RomeoJordantotherescue.
http://www.yattermatters.com/
great post today.
Wow,
No way, amigo. Last year you could punch in ‘reduced’ on craigslist and over 1,000 listings came up. Now, much less. Not yet on the rentals… but soon. Maybe summer.
Plus, those people (you know who you are) that bought that 10-yr old townhouse a year ago for 975K just sold for 1,038,000. Tidy little sum for not even bothering to repaint and or remove the cat flap contraption on the upstairs balcony. You should’ve done it. I should’ve done it.
WoW/119, mucky weather? I just went for a run around the seawall. In shorts. In January.
I’m about to fly to Montreal for a couple of weeks, and I’ll be sure to mail you a ball of ice, gravel, salt, and human misery.
Turkey,
Great weather for the winter games – rain/clouds and WARMTH.
Gotta love it baby!
Enjoy Montreal. Love that town
VD
I am in the Valley right now – unbelievable how much new construction is for sale. And commercial real estate out here is hurting.
Ouch.
Remember – unemployment in bc went up in December…
Rob:
No Rob I’m not listening. Where I use those terminologies is appropriate IMO. We can agree to disagree.
I am still extremely bearish on YVR Real estate but…
I am seeing no real signs of a slow down. Its still a very hot market by historical standards. Good properties are going multiple bid and bad ones are sitting. I think the bears here who are micro analyzing every stat looking for a slow down should just relax and wait.
Regression to the mean is an unavoidable reality but sometimes it can take much longer than one thinks. In the meantime, is it so bad renting a place for 30-50% of the cost of owning it?
McLovin
128 -I think you mean reversion to the mean. I suspect you are focusing on traditional price-income ratios. One of the factors seldom mentioned is that this reallly only works if long term interest rates were stable. There is no rule of thumb here when rates have, over the last 20 years, continued to trend lower. We should expect this metric to rise (possibly not to where it currently is though).
Hi Beans!
I just saw an increase in For Sale signs in my daily walk. Two more.
Surge is intact.
As for sales – I look forward to Rob’s weekly update.
Be well.
you gotta know the top is in when all the bulls on RET
are going around licking each other and admiring
their own RE investing genius……
Beans – I think we are splitting hairs but I did mean regression to the mean:
In statistics, regression toward the mean refers to the phenomenon that a variable that is extreme on its first measurement will tend to be closer to the centre of the distribution on a later measurement.[1][2] To avoid making wrong inferences, the possibility of regression toward the mean must be considered when designing experiments and interpreting experimental, survey, and other empirical data in the physical, life, behavioral and social sciences.
In the end I think we are speaking about the same thing. My point was I am not just referring to price/income ratios as the mean, I am referring to price/rent, price/income and long term growth rates. These are all so far out of whack or (mean) that is laughable to debate whether they will revert. It is just a matter of time. And to use your point about stable interest rates, these means have been established over an 80 year period in Canada without static interest rates. The general rules of thumb have been established over an extended period of time (in Amsterdam they go back to the 1500’s) Simply put, prices need to go way lower to get back to long term multigeneration averages. (Unless its different this time? – And you and I both know its not)
McLovin
McLOvin
PS – Thanks to Wikipedia for definition
Went to an open house today. The most God-awful townhouse in a great neighbourhood. Lots of square footage for the price but whew! needed to hold my nose. It would take 200K to bring it up to modern standards and out of the hippy dippy 70s and that’s beside the strata’s plan next year to replace the roof and the obvious rotting signs on the exterior window sills and balcony.
Anywho, tons of shoes, tons of prospective family-oriented buyers crawling all over the place. Is this January or June? It felt like June out there.
132/PimpPadRenterMcLovin’It… Agreed. However, the tricky part in YVR’s case are the exogenous factors – e.g. to what do we attribute the long running disconnect from fundamentals?… or to be more specific, is autochtonous ‘earned income’ really a significant factor in YVR RE anymore (especially in the most desirable/central micro-markets)? I would posit that it ain’t… but lacking access to a comprehensive longitudinal data-set, I can’t offer more than heuristics and anecdotals…
Query for Noz – have been watching SOCAL closely lately, how’s the ‘mood-music’ down there?…
We went to an open house today as well. It’s a little old centenarian house like lots of others in my neighbourhood, which is exactly what I’m looking for (quirky, small, good bones). Unfortunately, the fact sheet proudly claims $80k in renos, at least $30k of which are — objectively, not subjectively — tragic. Quelle coincidence: $80k seems to be about the adjustment in asking price over my expectations for the street and neighbourhood.
The realtor was watching football in the living room, and the boarder was having a shower upstairs. Definitely seemed like a January market to me.
VD
Sales have slowed (see stats bro), so your situation is now the anomoly…..and did it sell? Over list? Keep us informed.
Turkey – watch, this is a theme/trend that will gather force.
Clouds are gathering on the horizon.
Turk… Quick afterthought re: Montreal… BonVoyage!… and while you’re out there – a few dispatches re: Quebecois mood music would be sorely appreciated!… Merci.
Actually it is very odd that anyone can purport to see a “slowdown” during the current time. We all know that the recent pace of sales was unsustainable, in fact, the pace of sales in recent quarters were higher than in the “boom years” of 2005/06 despite the ongoing recession. A drop from this type of activity was inevitable but hardly speaks to a true market decline comparable to late 2007 and through 2008.
Yes, we are dropping from recent highs, and moi are rising, but there is nothing here that is alarming. THere is too much noise in the market to make any real comparisons, coming of olympics, record low rates etc that are shifting consumption and timing behaviours.
Beans,
God/valid points.
I wonder if this is a real ‘rush to the exits’ building given a lot of folk bouht thinking to flip into the O fever – is the listings surge for real?
http://www.agentwill.com
Sell/List at 31%. MOI surging.
But, I bet there are still lots of eager buyers, who look at the new supply with relief…listings will have to continue to aggressively climb and sales slow for buyers to start to feel a sense of….de ja vu.
Realtor acquaintance said sales completing this first week of January (first 9 days) were shockingly low. He gave numbers for the areas that he covers. Can’t wait for Rob’s numbers.
Relax about the rising MOI and low list/sell ratio – it is the first week back. People are “groggy” – give them a couple of weeks. Sales will remain strong and listings will be low prior to the Olympics. Some will view this time as the last chance to jump in below prices go to the moon following the Olympics, while sellers hold all the cards and will wait several months after the Olympics (and maybe then we will see the same 20k floated inventory like 2008 – but probably not).
142:
The majority of sales reported this week were written 1-14 days ago. Wonder why they’re low, eh? Your realtor friend probably doesn’t know the number of sales completing this week. Completed isn’t the same as reported.
Rob,
I cant remember if he said complete or reported, but his point was that for the area he covers, the sales completing or reporting for the first 9 days of January 2010 were a third of what they were last year, which was not a good January (YOY comparison) so I think his point is valid.
Anyways, his sampling may be limited and I have yet to puruse your more comprehensive numbers.
SD:
Completions can only be tracked through land titles (they can be tracked, but I don’t know who does any such tracking). Completion is when the title actually changes names.
Reported is a different story. Every MLS listing, when it sells, gets reported to the Board, and its status gets changed from “active” to “sold”. That’s tracked everyday and is a simple number for Realtors to get. The lag time for “reported” is the time between when agreement is reached and subjects are removed (0 days to 10 days, average). The lag time for completions is much longer – a minimum of a week (and that’s pressing it) with 1 month or 2 months not being uncommon.
Anyway, sales look about the same this year as last year (if not stronger – if I was doing REBGV in last year’s post we had 370 sales on the 11th. 380 in REBGV this year. If last year was REBGV +FVREB then we’re way stronger this year).
Noz:
“No Rob I’m not listening. Where I use those terminologies is appropriate IMO. We can agree to disagree.”
Again, I think you’re underlining my point. I told you in the pat that I think you have a choice to make: you can be “right” or you can enlist others to help you acheive your cause, but you can’t have both. You’re choosing to be right, and satisfied that we can agree to disagree. (Not to confuse you too much, but I’m pretty sure you’re not clear on what you’re disagreeing about anyway, but here’s a hint – its not AGW).
It begs the question: if AGW is such a threat, and if you’re right about it, and if the consequences are so dire, why are you happy to agree to disagree with anyone who disagrees with you? How serious can the treat be if you’re not willing to sacrifice the smallest part of your ego in order to enlist support for something you can’t do on your own? (Your behaviour is emblematic of the problem we all face).
Purp:
” I read Frekonomics and really liked it [and] I saw a short piece on TV where they discuss their theory of global cooling and it really turned me off because I thought the analysis was far too superficial for such a complex topic. They’re smart guys, but the whole thing seemed like contrarianism to sell books and I felt like they stepped way out of their area of expertise.”
I get Twitter updates from them (essentially links to interesting things, to and from their opinion blog on NYT) and I read Dubner address that allegation when it was made by Elizabeth Kolbert. She said:
““Neither Levitt, an economist, nor Dubner, a journalist, has any training in climate science — or, for that matter, in science of any kind.”
And he wrote:
“The time has probably come to admit that neither of us were Ku Klux Klan members either, or sumo wrestlers or Realtors or abortion providers or schoolteachers or even pimps. And yet somehow we managed to write about all that without any horse dung (well, not much at least) flying our way”.
Fair comment, I think. I might be missing something, but it seems to me that Levitt and Dubner are reporting on smart guys who don’t toe the party line more than they are recommending a particular line of their own (my reading isn’t exhaustive and I could be wrong). (Elizabeth Kolbert isn’t a climate scientist either, but I think you only have to be properly trained if you want to disagree. If you agree its ok to be…untrained!
)
“I get where you’re coming from regarding how poorly the message has been sold about the science, the extent of the problem and required solutions. And I wonder, why the heck has it been so hard to sell, considering the strength of the science behind it?”
That’s what I find so fascinating. I don’t wonder why its been hard to sell. I don’t wonder at all. I don’t even think the “hard to sell” part has even entered the equation so far. This will sound a little mean spirited, but I think that the problem is that the “salesmen” involved are so completely inept that they couldn’t sell ice in the Sahara.
You’ve pointed to the strength of the science behind the global warming hypothesis (and I’m not using hypotesis to enrage anyone – I’m just trying to remain neutral). Here’s the first problem: the science is too complex for me, and for most people.
This isn’t because we aren’t smart. Its because the subject matter is very complex and allows for apparently valid alternate interpretations. The analogy I’d use is me being diagnosed with cancer and getting conflicting opinons on treatment – one from a surgeon who says “cut it out”, one from another doctor who says “No, chemo is the way to go” and another who says “Nope, my clinic in TJ is the answer. A coffee enema will cure anything. Plus, Suzanne Somers will visit”. Who do I believe? If I can’t do all the research myself (and I can’t) I need to decide based on who’s most trustworthy.
That leads to the second problem. Are AGW supporters trustworthy? Some are, for sure, but clearly, some aren’t. Some are hypocrites. Some are probably liars. Some appear to be willing to break the law to promote their agenda. Out of 100 AGW proponents how many hahve to be bad apples to make everyday people suspicious? I don’t know, but I do know that there have been enough. (Remember, if the information is too complex to understand, trust takes on a heightened importance).
Then comes a related problem: when someone questions your trustworthyness you can’t win them over by arguing with them or attacking otehr people. It simply doesn’t work. It never has and it never will. When people who question AGW are labelled, and personally attacked, the labellers adn attackers lose. Same numbers as an example: if there are 100 AGW deniers, and the majority are in the pay of Dr. Evil, how many have to be honest truth tellers to pop the conspiracy ballon of pro-AGW people? Not too many. Goes to the trust question of the AGW proponents.
I’ll combine the two: Al Gore says the world is coming to an end, but he deals with carbon by buying offsets, not reducing his footprint, and he attacks others as being shills while he makes billions. (And if you answer, as Noz did, that Al Gore is a hypocrite, but that doesn’t disprove AGW, you’ve missed the trust issue completely).
Another problem is the mixed message one from AGW proponents. One the one hand we’re told “Do the research yourself” and on the other we’re told “the science is overwhelming and settled”.
You don’t have to be too bright to ask “Why should I do the research, then?” Again, its a trust thing. I say “I don’t trust you yet”, so you say “Do your own research” but then you throw in “Mind you, we’re right, and if your research indicates otherwise, it simply proves you don;t have a scientific mind” An example is the mining engineer who started the FOI thing on Micheal Mann and co. They fought and attacked him like crazy. Meanwhile, when he found a problem with some NASA numbers they just said “Hey, you’re right, thanks for the catch” fixed the error and moved on. Guess who I trust more? Mann or NASA? REmember, I don’t know the science. I only know people, so I tend to trust NASA. But here’s the important point – I haven’t said I trust the mining engineer; I’m not an anti-AGW guy because of Mann. I’m just anti-Mann. He and Gore hurt the AGW cause.
When it comes to smart guys, Levitt and Dubner seem to quote some smart guys (you’ve probably read the Intellectual Ventures stuff, so I won’t bore you); I’m not vouching for them. They could be fakes, but the one guy, Caldeira, contributed to the IPCC report and the other, Myrvold or something, is a microsoft genius. Noz may be smarter than me, but these guys are smarter than Noz.
How should it have been sold? By salespeople, not by scientists. A salesperson wouldn’t call the prospect a moron. A salesperson wouldn’t criticise the competition. A salesperson would say “Do your own research and then call me”.
Who’s selling it now? Largely politicians. What’s the dif between a scientist, a salesperson, and a politician? The scientist is passionate about his cause, and will sacrifice a lot to make his point (even truth and scientific method – see Kuhn). A salesperson is passionate about making a sale, and will do his best to get a product that’s easy to sell with a wide margin (if the product sucks the saelsperson will get a new one – see Richard Dreyfuss talking about VW bugs in Tinmen). A politician doesn’t care what he’s selling, only in who buys it (see Stephen Harper go to Copenhagen).
I hope that makes sense. I’m not anti-AGW. I’m confused on that score, although it seems to me that recycling and flexfuel cars won’t solve the challenge. If Tibetan Plateau glaciers are melting and Asia is looking at drought we’ve got big geo-political problems coming.
Turkey:
“I read Freakonomics and found the authors Terribly Clever” Can’t disagree, which leads back to my question: media whores trying to sell books or careful researchers? Remember when they pointed out that realtors got more for their own homes? Most called them careful researchers then, although others, (and you may have been among them) pointed out lots of problems with the argument.
Anyway, very interesting stuff for an uniformed guy like me. Love talking about it, which I knew which cards were turing over next.
Rob:
Whether people communicate clearly or not regarding climate change doesn’t change the fact that it’s happening….regardless of whether you believe it or not. This point is not debatable regardless of your point being made or not. The sun rises everyday and is at the center of this solar system….even if the Catholic Church thinks otherwise.
It comes down to your own sensibilities in regards to if you believe. As one example, sitting in a 5000lb vehicle in traffic all day getting 10 MPG contributes to the brown crap you have to breath into your lungs should logically be seen as dumb and moronic. Some people apparently don’t think so because they are so self-indulgent and self-righteous.
If I mis-spell the word bleu….does it make it any less blue? That’s your argument. It doesn’t fly.
By the way Rob, you’re making this into an ego thing…not me. I’m stating the facts from what I have learned from my work and the scientists I work with.
The ego trip comes in the form of people who begin to question the facts based merely on their own defensive reactions to the facts….perhaps due to the lifestyle cramp they’ll have imposed on t hem due to the self-sacrifice required.
Noz:
You keep making my point, which is great, but I still don’t think you’re clear on what we’re talking about. Like I said last time:
“(Not to confuse you too much, but I’m pretty sure you’re not clear on what you’re disagreeing about anyway, but here’s a hint – its not AGW). ”
In short, we’re not talking about whether AGW is real.
We’re talking about whether anyone who matters cares.
So far I’d argue that the answer to that is a deafening no. That’s why nothing is being done. The interesting phenomenon is that many AGW proponents can’t seem to understand why nothing is being done.
Now I care about AGW, I just don’t know a lot about it. I don’t know what to believe because the question is too complex. I’m not qualified to make a judgement on the data (regardless of how many times people from each camp recommend I do my own research). There is too much data that is apparently contradictory.
But, I care because if the AGW proponents are right the downside is huge. From a purely risk management position we should do somethign about it if its real.
Let’s back up for a second. Note that I said “apparently” in regard to conficting data- that’s because I can’t tell who’s bullshitting based on the data. But, I can tell who’s full of crap based on how they make their claims. You’re an example. You say you believe in AGW, but your actions demonstrate that you don’t care about it. You may tell yourself that you care about it, but you won’t modify your behaviour in any meaningful way.
As I wrote before: “you have a choice to make: you can be “right” or you can enlist others to help you acheive your cause, but you can’t have both. You’re choosing to be right, and satisfied that we can agree to disagree”.
If you say that AGW is such a huge issue, and you claim to understand it, but you can’t a) get clear on what we’re discussing (its not whether AGW is happening or not) b) won’t modify your message one iota when its clearly not being received and c) prefer seeign yourself as right instead of accomplishing change, why would you think anyone would find you convincing or trust your opinion? You need a little intellectual honesty (and I’m telling you that with the best of intentions).
Your challenge isn’t just to be right. Its to get the message out, and make sure its received and accepted. Otherwise what you know becomes irrelevant.
Wow, hundreds of posts later, you guys still can’t even get on the same wavelength …
Rob, I don’t get it — I mean I get that you’re not arguing about whether AGW is fact or fiction but about the how the proponents are mishandling delivering the message but I don’t get how you can possibly expect Noz to provide an argument to convince you — you’ve already admitted that because others who you deem to have more ‘cred’ than Noz are unconvinced, you’ll take their position over Noz’s so clearly nothing Noz can say will sway you so what’s left for Noz to do but “agree to disagree”???
ObserverX:
I’m not expecting Noz to convince me with an argument. I’m (perhaps perversely) trying to get Noz (and anyone else who wants to) to recognize the weaknesses in the method that’s been used so far. Noz is a great example because he’s so black and white about it, but the same criticism could be levied at David Suzuki. It doesn’t make either of them bad people, btw.
IF AGW is a problem, and IF we’re going to do something about it, we can’t do it as individuals, and we can’t do it through half measures. Its really not a scientific question once it hits the table. It quickly becomes a policy question, and that, I think is an important charactieristic that many don’t recognize. They’re fighting a policy battle with science. How is that supposed to ever work?
Sure, but your discussion *is with Noz*, not with the larger AGW proponent group, and original issue *was* whether or not AGW is real. You’ve as much dismissed Noz’s cred so what’s left for him to say? Suppose Noz comes back and says “I concede your point Rob — yes, we AGW proponents have fumbled the ball — now back to the question of whether AGW is real, who has the better argument, me or the naysayers?” Will you respond to that question or continue with I-only-want-to-discuss-what-people-think-and-do,-not-what-is-real?
Rob – “…Its really not a scientific question once it hits the table. It quickly becomes a policy question…They’re fighting a policy battle with science…” — But the discussion here (and generally) is not yet entirely a policy question, because we haven’t even moved past agreeing on the science part. The policy question is “OK, we agree on the science behind AGW, so which is more effective, a cap-and-trade or fee-and-dividend solution?” But the discussion over the past few threads has been around the credibility of the science and how it’s ’sold’.
With respect to selling the science and the policy, this is a pretty interesting article which I think corresponds with your view….
http://scienceblogs.com/islandofdoubt/2010/01/obstacle_no_64_to_dealing_with.php
About the whole Dubner/Levitt thing…
“The time has probably come to admit that neither of us were Ku Klux Klan members either, or sumo wrestlers or Realtors or abortion providers or schoolteachers or even pimps. And yet somehow we managed to write about all that without any horse dung (well, not much at least) flying our way”. — But there’s a difference between making clever arguments on issues for entertainment puposes where there isn’t really much at stake and wading into one of the biggest issues of our time. They should know better, unless of course they’ve turned into ‘media whores’.
ROB:
As usual you are now arguing for the sake of argument. You’re proving the scientific community’s point for not really wasting time communicating with a broader audience such as yourself. You sit on the fence but don’t want to believe anything.
Why don’t you use the same approach when you buy a product…such as a car? You don’t seem to drill the auto manufacturers as to why they use a certain tire size, or why the car uses a V6 instead of a straight 4, or why the car only gets 20 MPG instead of 30 MPG. Or how about a LCD TV? Do you call up Samsung and drill them about why you don’t understand why their engineers use the backlighting they do?
Yet you demand to know the in’s and out’s of global climate change even though you freely admit it’s completely and totally beyond your scope of understanding, knowledge and brainpower. If so, why are you arguing about it so much? Instead, why don’t you listen and trust the people who are working hard to get a handle on the severity and magnitude of the problem? You? No…you’d rather dismiss what’s being said because A) you don’t understand it and B) it’s not said in a way you like it to be said.
Unfortunately that still doesn’t change the facts that we’re in deep trouble environmentally.
You epitomize the typical non-believer (or someone who’s sitting on the fence) for no other reason than the simple fact that were you to believe in it, it’d cramp your lifestyle. That is why people get defensive about being told that GW exists and is happening. They don’t want to give up their lifestyle, their knick-knacks, their toys.
Your statements don’t even make sense anymore….you’re just going on and on about stuff that doesn’t matter at all and you’re muddying the subject in the typical way that you do…taking pot shots at me on the way. As I’ve said before in other threads, your arrogance and high-brow opinion of yourself doesn’t become you.
Silly statements about who’s smarter than me and who knows more than me doesn’t change the fact that I’m directly involved in the research you care to dismiss and not believe…even though “I don’t know what to believe because the question is too complex. I’m not qualified to make a judgement on the data”….your words, not mine.
If you are not qualified and have no clue, then you have no business running around like a stubborn old fool shouting “I don’t believe you”. And yes….that is precisely what you are saying so don’t bother coming back with the statement that you never claim that stance.
Here is a link I put up a while back that you should go and visit….it’s got very simple explanations that will que you into what’s being done, what’s being uncovered, and why the global climate is changing and what mechanisms are in place…I promise…it’s even simple enough for someone such as yourself who claims you don’t have the intelligence to understand.
http://climate.nasa.gov/
Here’s a novel idea….listen and learn for a change.
Good luck.
ObserverX:
Part of Rob’s problem is that he has a beef with me. I’m not surprised at all with the hostility he’s shows towards me…with his stupid pot shots and things like that.
ObserverX:
My conversation is with anyone who wants to participate, not exclusively Noz. The original issue wasn’t whether AGW is real or not, either.
This began with the post ”A Deal in Copenhagen” which I ended y saying “Fixing global warming is going to run aground on the reef of cold hard cash”.
That morphed into some different veins, true, but I’ve never been debating whether AGW is real or not.
I don’t think I have dismissed Noz’s credibility. I think he’s done that himself (and I hurry to add, once again, that I’m using Noz as an example because he’s emblematic of the position adopted by a lot of the pro-AGW crowd) – he’s dismissed his own credibility by saying that the issue is of paramount importance, but he won’t modify his own position one iota in order to solve the problem. Why should anyone give any credence to someone who says “AGW is real, its a huge threat, anyone who disagrees with me is a moron, and I’m doing my part by recycling!” And to be fair, he still isn’t clear what we’re talking about (hint, once again, its not AGW itself).
“now back to the question of whether AGW is real, who has the better argument, me or the naysayers?” Will you respond to that question or continue with I-only-want-to-discuss-what-people-think-and-do,-not-what-is-real?”
No. Think that question through and you’ll see why I think its wrong headed (and I’m not trying to be intentionally difficult with you). First point: if he (and a whole raft of other pro-AGW proponents) admit to fumbing the ball as I’ve charged, then there’s no way they can get points for having a better argument. My complaint is that they’ve made a scientifically arrived at conclusion a debating point. That was a mistake, and their argument has not carried the day, wwhich is why we’re where we’re at. The naysayers have a better argument by virtue of the fact that the pro-AGW guys were forced to admit that they dropped the ball and failed to convince anyone who matters.
Second, why does it matter if Noz (and a whole raft of other pro-AGW guys) is pronounced correct by a guy like me, who has confessed, repeatedly, to not being qualified to judge the validity of the answer? If we don’t solve the problem (whatever we eventually decide it to be) collectively, and the pro-AGW guys are right, will Noz feel better that I admited he was correct? Who cares? And that’s the real point – who cares if AGW is real? (Sounds facetious, I know, but treat it like a serious question, and Rio, Kyoto, and Copehagen start to make sense).
All that said, I see where you’re going, at least to some degree. You want to know my feelings on AGW itself. Fair enough. I think my position is pretty solid, given who I am and what I know, and I think its got a lot of consistency with everything I’ve said so far.
1) I believe in climate change. I’m certain that I’ve witnessed it myself, and even if I were to eliminate my own observations and only depend on what I’ve seen and read it seems like a reasonable thesis. I’m pretty confident about this, and have been as long as I can remember. You really start to imagine the possibility of climate change on a relatively short timeline as soon as you start reading about Leif Erricson as a kid, right? Greenland, Vinland, blah blah blah. Bring it closer to home and you learn that 100 years ago there were very few moose in the Cariboo, but there were lots of (you guessed it) cariboo. Why did that change, and why are woodland cariboo endangered in BC today? Its not because we shot cariboo and let moose escape. Climate change (warmer or colder) seems to fit, at least as a strong possibility.
2) I tend to believe in GW. Again, I’m pretty certain that I’ve witnessed it myself. We’ve got glaciers here, and we’ve got lots of beetle kill that anyone can see, and I’ve heard friends talk about driving logging trucks across Ootsa Lake in the past, and that seems to be changing. If I hadn’t seen what seems to me to be evidence of it with my own eyes I’d be less confident. Winters like we had here last winter, and winters like they’re having back east and in England make me wonder, naturally, but I’ve already said I’m not an expert, so when a smart guy says “That’s extreme weather and not in conflict with long term warming” I say “OK, sounds reasonable”.
) It seems foolish to dismiss, out of hand, that AGW is a real possibility.
3) AGW – I don’t know if its manmade or not. On the one hand it seems pretty arrogant to think that we can control the world’s climate, and yet, on the other, you see pictures from space of the impact we’re having on the Earth and you have to admit the possibility. Factor in how quickly population is growing, and how consumption is rising, and you’re just looking at the magic of numbers, and that never lies. Remember, I came onto this spaceship when the population was 3 billion. Now we’re well past double that, and I’m not that old. If I live another 40 years I’ll probably see 9 billion people (who says we’re not running out of land?!?!
In short, if you draw a line between those who believe in AGW and those who don’t, I’m clearly on the believe side of the ledger. I’ve never said anything contrary to that, and my interest in solving what I see as the problem (getting the message out, understood and accepted) would be irrational if I wasn’t at least partially convinced that AGW may well be real (an easily inferred conclusion lost on the Noz’s of the world, if I do say so). I say “may well be” because I recognize what I don’t know – I’m no scientist. I need to trust scientists, and that means I have to choose who to believe.
Purp:
” But the discussion here (and generally) is not yet entirely a policy question, because we haven’t even moved past agreeing on the science part.”
I don’t agree, but I’m not 180 degrees opposed to you. We don’t need to agree on the science before we agree on policy. We’ve had this discussion before. We know that a sub-set of the population will always be better informed about something than the average Joe – the example of trusting your mechanic or cancer doctor suffices to prove that point. Risk management emerges as a sensible way to proceed on a policy front while we buy time to settle the science.
Is it “entirely” a policy discussion? No, clearly you’re right on that, but I think the policy discussion is the more important, because without wise policy the value of the science is moot. Again, if we’re not doing anything anyway, who cares if AGW is real? We may as well fiddle while Rome burns.
Thanks for the link. I’m sort of onside with the guy, although (surprise) I can find some things I feel are important to take issue with. I like the site. I don’t know if you noticed it or just thought it was my speed, but in the inspiration section it has a quote from H.L. Mencken (love the guy) and Walt Kelly (I recommended Noz look him up!) Like HP, you are perceptive.
“But there’s a difference between making clever arguments on issues for entertainment puposes where there isn’t really much at stake and wading into one of the biggest issues of our time.”
Fair comment. I think its important to note that this is one of the biggest issues of our time (whether you believe AGW or not) – that’s what I liked about Corcoran’s peice on the Hadley/CRU missives. He was the first guy I saw identify them as the important historical documents that they will come to be.
Noz:
I’m not arguing for the sake of argument (not that that is a bad thing). I am baiting you, true, but that’s fun for both of us. What’s more, you could put an end to it quickly by thinking about what you’re writing before you write it. My friend HP was very impressed by your workplace, and he’s a knowledgeable guy. His reaction makes me back away from dismissing you as thick-skulled, but I have to tell you, either I can’t write or you can’t read.
After ObserverX said we’d started by discussing whether AGW was real I went back to the original post.
From the very beginning I said that you were making my point for me (the pro-AGW crowd does a very poor job of convincing anyone who matters -comment 108) and I asked if you were willing to change your approach from something that wasn’t working to something that might (same comment).
I then asked if you could effect change alone, or if you needed help (comment 111).
I told you I was using you as an example of the larger debate (comment 118) and stated that I’m open to the idea that climate change is mand-made (same comment).
I told you I wsn’t debating whether climate change is real or not (comment 120) but that many pro-AGW guys, like you, talk the talk but dont walk the walk (same comment). That costs you credibility, btw.
I told you in comment 127 that I was talking about making a change, not about whether AGW is real or not.
In this thread, comment 146 and 149, I again told you that you were making my point about the pro-AGW community not using effective means to promote the cause, and talking the talk but not walking the walk, and that I wasn’t debating AGW itself.
You can call me a typical non-believer who epitomizes everything you despise, but again, you didn’t know my position on AGW until just now. You were making assumptions to counter an argument I wasn’t making, and ignoring the one I am. That’s great, because, as I’ve said, you’re a great example of why we’re in this mess.
You can keep pretending that I’m sitting on a fence, or that I’m an AGW denier, and that you’re really doing something, but you don’t have any evidence to support your position. By all means, feel free to quote me, but keep it in context. I’ll clarify:
“If you are not qualified and have no clue, then you have no business running around like a stubborn old fool shouting “I don’t believe you”. And yes….that is precisely what you are saying so don’t bother coming back with the statement that you never claim that stance”.
I’m not saying I don’t believe you. I’m saying you aren’t convincing and I’m asking if you’ll address that flaw. Its your delivery that’s in question, and the effects taht’s had, not AGW. As for never claiming the stance that I’ve never denied AGW, I’ve actually said the opposite, explicitly and repeatedly. It would be pointless for me to argue that the pro-AGW approach is flawed if I didn’t believe in AGW.
“Silly statements about who’s smarter than me and who knows more than me doesn’t change the fact that I’m directly involved in the research you care to dismiss and not believe…even though “I don’t know what to believe because the question is too complex. I’m not qualified to make a judgement on the data”….your words, not mine”.
I don’t dismiss the research. I dismiss the tactic of saying “I’m right because I’m smarter and more passionate than anyone who disagrees with me”. That’s a losing proposition from the word go, yet you’ve picked that hill to die on. So be it, but don’t purposely confuse what I’m saying. I don’t deny AGW. I do say that pro-AGW people (and you’re a prime example) ahve done a terrible job of making the point, and walking the walk, and the fallout to all of us may be terrible.
(I don’t have a beef with you personally, either. Let’s face it, Noz. You’re an anonymous voice coming in over the ether. You’re a great foil, that’s all).
If it makes you feel better about yourself and boost your self-esteem by belittling people you don’t know, knock yourself….whatever floats your boat.
It still doesn’t make up for the endless drivel and chatter you go on and on with for no other reason than to probably listen to yourself talk in the Internet. Backpedaling your extremely biased point of view won’t exonerate you either.
People have done a terrible job of making a point to you because you’re deaf when it comes to what’s being said…you only hear what you want to hear.
Demanding that people spoon-feed you isn’t going to get you anywhere. You’re not important enough. The information you seek is out there….in very plain English. It’s very plain, very simple, very cleanly outlined.
Anyway, arguing with you is pointless. It’s not worth bickering back and forth with someone who asks for an explanation and then when given one, starts whining about how that explanation is wrong.
Cheers!
By the Rob, just to clarify, when you say things like
“I don’t dismiss the research. I dismiss the tactic of saying “I’m right because I’m smarter and more passionate than anyone who disagrees with me”. That’s a losing proposition from the word go, yet you’ve picked that hill to die on. So be it, but don’t purposely confuse what I’m saying. ”
- you’re being completely disingenuous. I never stated “I’m right…blah blah blah…” I said I work in the business and see the data. The data clearly indicates that this phenomenon is real.
You have clearly demonstrated that you don’t believe the data…you question the facts. Yet you play the conversation as if you never said that. You say one thing, act completely differently. I tell you the sky is blue, you question it even though we have scientifically concluded it to be the case.
Your questions and way you write clearly demonstrates you are simply arguing for the sake of arguing and nothing else. When presented with the facts (even laid out in a way you can understand), you still come up with silly statements that don’t add any quality to the conversation.
Statements like “I don’t dismiss the research. I dismiss the tactic” don’t even make sense….do you realize that or not? There is no tactic…I’m talking about facts…you’re talking about tactics? Honestly…what’s running through your mind?
Anyway, for me that’s the last of it. When you choose to review, at the very least, the link I provided, you can get back to me. Until then, running around in circles won’t do either of us any good.
Noz:
You and I both know you’re going nowhere. You’re too much of a fighter and you’re not a quitter. You’re just frustrated because you can see the writing on the wall – soon you’ll have to admit that you agree with me!
“When you choose to review, at the very least, the link I provided, you can get back to me.” What do we do then? You think I’m an AGW denier, but I’m clearly not. You keep trying to engage me on that issue, but its not what I’m talking about, and we really don’t disagree on it. I’m not qualified to make the AGW case, I admit, but I’m equally incapable of making the anti-AGW case, and based on what I know AGW seems very possible to me (as I’ve said now several times). So, again, once I’ve looked at your link (which I have, btw) what do we do?
“Statements like “I don’t dismiss the research. I dismiss the tactic” don’t even make sense….”
If we’re talking about whether AGW exists or not I suppose you’re right. You’re talking about that, I realize, but “we’re” not. I’m not denying AGW. I’m saying that pro-AGW people don’t communicae the message well. That’s why I don’t dismiss the research, but I do dismiss the tactic of saying “I’m passionate and I do the research, therefore you must agree with me”. Its an ineffective tactic. Its unconvincing. The research certainly deserves better treatment.
You may be talking facts, in other words, (and I’m not disagreeing with them, am I?) but you’re not convincing enough people to make any difference (are we actually taking meaningful action? Yes or no?)
“You have clearly demonstrated that you don’t believe the data…”
Not true. I’ve said I’m not qualified to make a judgement one way or another, but that if forced take a position I come down on the side of AGW. That’s not inconsistent with saying that the message has been poorly and ineffectively conveyed.
“…you question the facts.” Wait, we wouldn’t want anyone questioning the “facts” would we? Not in this day and age. God forbid. Of course, questioning the facts isn’t the same as saying they aren’t true, is it? Its just asking a question.
So, here’s the long and short of it. I am not an AGW denier. I don’t need to be spoonfed the data because I’m already onside. I hope AGW is a hoax, as some claim, but I’m clearly afraid that its not. I think that guys like you have done harm to our chances of remedying the problem and I think you have to change your approach.
You see?
We don’t disagree over AGW.
I think we disagree over how the message has been conveyed. I think its been poorly conveyed and I think that the people who say things like “Check the data yourself, you”ll see I’m right, you can’t debate the moronic idiots who question us, you’re just trying to maintain your stupid little lifestyle” are acting irresponsibly (and I think you’re a good example of that group) and that they have to change.
Do you agree with that last statement or do you think the message has been effectively conveyed?