February 7 Stats Update
Inventory for REBGV and FVREB attached and detached was 16,685, of which 5,005, or 30%, were over 90s. For the REBGV the numbers were 10,484, 3,010 and 28.71%. For the FVREB the numbers were 6,201, 1,995 and 32.17%.
REBGV detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,329 new listings, 338 price changes, and 546 sales for a sell/list of 41.08%.
10,484/(546*4.25) = 4.52 MOI.
FVREB detached and attached numbers for last week were 683 new listings, 216 price changes, and 275 sales for a sell/list of 40.26%.
6,201/(275 *4.25)= 5.31 MOI.
Combined detached and attached numbers for last week were 2,011 new listings, 554 price changes, and 821 sales. Sell/list was 40.83%.
16,685/(821*4.25) = 4.78 MOI.
First chart is REBGV, second if FVREB, third is combined. All stats courtesy of the REBGV, and while every effort has been made to ensure their accuracy, the REBGV assumes no responsibility for them.
Rob’s Report Generator
Data for File: SalesFebruary072010REBGV.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 546 | $661,354.58 | $651,586.30 | -$9,768.27 | -1.49% | 41 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 339 | $450,478.21 | $443,663.12 | -$6,815.09 | -1.60% | 32 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 199 | $1,024,897.91 | $1,010,979.01 | -$13,918.90 | -0.94% | 50 |
Data for File: SalesFebruary072010FVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 275 | $413,764.19 | $404,826.61 | -$8,937.57 | -2.12% | 54 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 130 | $282,465.18 | $276,283.59 | -$6,181.59 | -2.18% | 51 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 134 | $537,055.05 | $527,204.87 | -$9,850.19 | -1.77% | 50 |
Data for File: SalesFebruary072010REBGVFVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 821 | $578,422.35 | $568,932.33 | -$9,490.02 | -1.70% | 45 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 469 | $403,907.43 | $397,267.94 | -$6,639.49 | -1.76% | 37 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 333 | $828,588.77 | $816,307.13 | -$12,281.64 | -1.27% | 50 |
109 comments
Sell list and MOI creeping in the bears direction. Perfectly understandable due to the olympics, but I’m sure WoW will be thrilled.
Davers
Yes, interesting. Could MOI climb to 6 this month? Incredible – this is not a ’strong’ market from my vantage point – at best it is ‘balanced’.
Should the listings surge continue a few more weeks, it is my expectation that the ‘price reduced’ sign business makes a comeback.
Thx Rob – ps. What are your thoughts?
Mish on the US jobless numbers: Something going funny with the BLS adjustments.
Seasonal adjustments this year MUCH larger than ever before. Wild swings, which if pattern is followed should reverse out by April.
http://tinyurl.com/ycv7w5h
Also looking at income tax receipts, totally un-estimated, un-adjusted, un-modeled, almost real-time: IOW as real as data gets…
“Real-Time tax withholding data shows that wages and salaries declined an adjusted 1.0% y-o-y.”
The same effect is going on in sales figures. If we are to believe the surveyed, adjusted, estimated, modeled data christmas sales rose I think 1.8%? (from memory, definitely a rise). If we believe sales taxes collected by the state and federal government, again very firm numbers — no fudging there! — sales FELL about 7%. Both sets of figures can’t be true, I’ll go with the one directly reported with no changes from full real data. One is little short of a blatant lie, the people putting it out have got to know the problems with their models. Or they are just plain incompetent?
MOI
I think this is the key metric in the near-term.
If/as it ticks higher, there will likely be some sellers who want out fast and will price accordingly (ie. if they get spooked and either need to get out fast or just feel like if they don’t they will be chasing the bid downward).
Will be interesting to watch Larry’s stats this week – do we see a flood of listings going into the start of the big O, or have those sellers who wanted to list already done so?…..we live in interesting times.
Harbinger?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/07/weekinreview/07wines.html
Rob,
On Sarah Palin. She’s getting a bit of buzz (Henry Blodget and others) because she’s finally had a bit more media training and is now, apparently, able to field questions. Not answer them but sound like she has and change the subject to liberty, freedom and light. Didn’t you know that GW comes down to these 3 elements?
I can now actually see a real possibility for her to be packaged up like GW. They were defending her on CNN last night for reading crib notes she had scribbled on the palm of her hand. The issue wasn’t, the quality of the answer with crib notes but whether it’s OK to have crib notes. And apparently it is because Barry O has a teleprompter?!
The way Barry O is going, he’s be prime to be taken down if he doesn’t change his strategy. He needs a Dick Morris or Karl Rove to step in, hate to say it. He needs to appease the right, right now. Because the clock is ticking for honesty and intellectual prowess before demagoguery makes its move.
In the areas I’ve been following, there seems to have been a dichotomization in seller’s attitudes in the past few weeks. Whereas last fall almost every new listing seemed to ask for more than the preceding ones, now there are two distinct groups, one group is still pricing like before (and sitting unsold), but the other group (small still) is pricing for less than previous sales.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GI.20100208.escenic_1460083/GIStory/
ObsX
Very interesting. VD commented on how 2 or 3 listings in her area INCREASED prices, but I think the bulk of price changes are reductions….(in general).
Now, if what you are noticing is broad-based, is this a sign that sellers are looking to ‘hit the bid’, and may start to compete for buyers?
MOI is not low. Its not high. Prices are high.
It will be interesting to see how this week unfolds.
I’m on the east side, and I’m seeing a lot of houses sitting, and have seen some price reductions. That said, I’ve also seen some sales, but usually with sharp pricing, or very nice reno’s. Anecdotal at best, FWIW.
Joshua,
Thank you. That is a refreshing change from VD’s assertations of only sold signs, and other blind comments (just kidding VD!:)
Interesting Joshua, I’m hearing similar stories. Please keep us in the loop as things evolve going forward. It will be interesting to see if sellers start to rush the bid and hunt for buyers, despite no changes to chmc/interest rates.
Interesting times.
This from David Rosenberg’s market commentary this morning:
“Rest assured that when this topic [the Housing Bubble] makes it to front page of the WSJ, as was the case today (Housing Rebound in Canada Spurs Talk of New Bubble), the likelihood that the bubble started months ago is likely very, very high.”
CoB on 02.08.10 at 1:23 pm
Kitsilano listings are now at 166 units. My favourite one is:
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=8967336
652 sqft basement ‘townhouse’ for 530K.
Absolutely mental.
from garth’s site – this fellow notes that listings in kits are marching higher at a much faster rate than he’s seen before, fyi.
Anonymous 2:
Balanced is around 6 MOI and DOMs much closer to 75. This looks balanced to you because you’ve spent so much time in a skewed market. Our normal is usually not normal in anyone else’s terms (in that sense Vancouver is, historically, different from other places) but that doesn’t change the fact that 4 MOI is seller territory, not balanced territory.
BTW, when I say Vancouver is “different” I mean that traditionally we’ve been spoiled in our RE market. What we think is a tough market for sellers is one that people in other parts of NA would take in a heartbeat (and its really always been that way).
V-Dog:
“is now, apparently, able to field questions. “ Yeah, if she writes the crib notes on her hand!
Comparing her to George Bush, is, I think, a mistake. I know a lot of people hate GW, but the decider was, whether you like it or not, a capable politician and a difference making statesman (in terms of being a global player, not a suave, debonair, sophisticated escargot eater - he did, after all, actually cause Saddam Hussein to be killed. The man plays for keeps, and in that sense I can’t forget Arsenio Hall saying (must be 10-11 years ago now) that he didn’t like Bush because Bush liked to kill black men).
He did not want to be a foreign policy or war president. He would have preferred, I think, to be much more isolationist. He would have, I think, tried to stay well out of the traditional presidential playing field of the mid-East. I think he was happy wishing Prime Minister Poutine well (and remember, when Americans ignore Canada its not always because they’re ignorant. Sometimes its because we’re their smaller neighbour, 1/10th of their size, not a problem, and safely boring and trustworthy).
9/11 happened and he walked out of the US and broke stuff like a bull in the china shop. There was no question with him about where people stood – with him, or ag’in him. And when he said, in his dulcet cowboy tones, that he was gonna cut the terrorizers if they stood and shoot ‘em if they ran, he wasn’t kidding.
People didn’t like that, I understand. They also didn’t like that he was a westerner and a podunk Texan who refused to commute death sentences in Texas and liked to invent his own style of English. He remains, however, misundersestimated. He was more than many thought he was. He was a smart politician who, despite widespread opposition, won two terms and, like him or not, did it on his own terms.
Don’t confuse me with a Bush lover – I’m just saying that he was, love him or hate him, the genuine article.
Sarah Palin isn’t. Short term governer of a small state with a porn star for a son-in-law. She comes across as populist and dumb, and she’s a woman to boot. Lots of smart left wing women won’t like her, and lots of right wing men won’t vote for her. She’s great for media, but politically she’s a liability for the GOP. (JMHO).
Obama doesn’t have just a problem with the right. He’s a bad politician and better start learning fast. I’m not anti-Obama, and hope he is able to accomplish all the great things people wished for, but he was a) never as popular as the MSN said, and b) he’s not a proven winner.
As for intellectual prowess, remember that a Harvard lawyer who says things like “When times are tough you don’t gamble in Vegas” just proved that he’s not street smart. Nevada has a huge service union and is important to the Democrats. He ignored that in order to use a throw away line. Smart? Think “Good Will Hunting” Matt Damon isn’t the one playing the Obama role. What value intellectual prowess when you can’t score?
Actually, my last posting wasn’t about list prices increases. It was 3 properties that recently sold, 2 of which sold for huge sums over asking.
Wow. Don’t blow your wad on 5.31 MOI, aye? We’re still far from the Big O.
Rob,
You’re one of the few people that can sum up GW fairly and remember (correctly) that he was an isolationist. 9/11 got him riled and he stomped out of his office and broke everything in sight. Of course, before he became GWB, President of the US, he was GWB candidate. The people who massage, manage and spun him then, had very similar problems to those who hope to do the same with Sarah Palin. That’s all I’m talking about. I’m not sayin’ right now that she has a snowball’s hope in hell. I’m just sayin’ the temperature in hell may have fallen a few degrees for her.
She can’t speak properly. She dumb. Just like GWB. (No offence and I know that smarts is not the same thing as being a leader and the same may yet apply for her). She will have many problems associated with being a woman politician just like Hilary did. Many women and men on the left couldn’t vote for Hilary. Me, being one of them (if I were American). But for the first time ever, I think Palin is moving from being an ignition switch for the GOP to someone who maybe, maybe have a chance at something in 2012.
I’m totally being like WoW, here. Her chances are pretty close to thinking a house price crash is imminent when you’re looking at 5 MOI, but you never know. That’s all I’m saying… the last 2 years she’s probably been in a bunker with question after question being thrown at her and she seems to maybe, just maybe have picked up a style of answering that might carry her somewhere.
I’m taking it from the point-of-view of let’s see what the Spin Doctors can do. They definitely did it for GWB and they may be able to do it for her. You’ll have to wait and see.
VD #5
Obama ate the right for breakfast last week.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35147797#35147797
…..no teleprompter as everyone likes to falsely harp on about.
Yup. He’s the greatest debater in the world. Now all he has to do is reign in spending without collapsing the economy, either sell through health care or drop it without looking like a fool, do something about burgeoning entitlements, do something to get the US banks lending again despite the fact that he met with them and they basically said they wouldn’t, re-regulate Wall St. without all the financial wizards moving abroad, do something about huge foreign debt or do something about China’s currency. A victory in anyone of these areas right about now rather than just debating it is what will win or lose him the next election. Otherwise it’ll be Scott Brown and Tina Fey and/or Sarah Palin for President: either one will do.
Rob, now that the CREA is back in the news for controlling access to information — any movement on direct access to statistics data from the GVREB?
We are going to have the world’s slowest fizzling out:
Canada’s housing market is set to hit a new record in 2010, with low interest rates fuelling sales across the country, the Canadian Real Estate Association said.
Sales are likely to rise 13.3% this year to 527,300 units, topping the previous record set in 2007, the CREA said.
Prices are forecast to rise 5.4% to a national average of $337,500.
Historic low interest rates are stoking the housing market and raising concern households are taking on too much debt to fund property purchases. The Bank of Canada is expected to begin raising rates from the second half of this year, taking some of the steam out of the market.
The CREA forecasts that sales will decline 7.1% in 2011 to 490,100 units. Prices will dip 1.5%, it said.
“Although interest rates are expected to rise, they will still be low enough to keep affordability within reach for many homebuyers requiring mortgage financing, and support overall housing demand,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger.
The rebound of houses in the upper price bracket in some of Canada’s most expensive markets, such as British Colombia and Ontario, skewed the average price levels towards the end of 2009.
That segment of the market is likely to cool in the second half of 2010, meaning the average price will also ease, the CREA said.
VD/Multiple…. thank you! especially for the guerilla2010 clip link on prior thread… (I would have enjoyed a DES establishing shot or two/and concluded with a contrasting master shot of an armoured cavalcade/sirens WAILING blue lights FLASHING somewhere on the Ski To Die with an F-18A escort flying CAP – and cut it down to about 30 seconds…. but hey, for some boyz/girlz with a camcorder and FinalCut ‘lite’, it doesn’t get any better)… As for ‘Palintology’ – well, never underestimate the power of advertising!
….
SenorCaballero…. when you get your TurboGoose, I wanna fly right seat!…
As for GWB…. I still prefer the handle ‘Thief In Chief’… as regards electoral fraud… you may recall the supreme court handed him his first term. As for the second – well, there were shocking irregularities in Ohio… Sadly, I am afraid that we are now at the ‘farce’ stage (and I wasn’t surprised to see that word pop up in Krugman’s NYT OpEd today, either)…
As for America? I regret that all formerly great institutions/polities are ultimately doomed to become parodies of themselves…
And there it is.
20
Well, at least they tried to paint a realistic picture of prices easing and dipping….
It is not the usual prices always go up….
wonder if Larry’s dailies will show a 100%+ sell/list tonight.
Rob 13:
“As for intellectual prowess, remember that a Harvard lawyer who says things like “When times are tough you don’t gamble in Vegas” just proved that he’s not street smart.”
I think that you have been watching Bush and Harper too long if you think that honestly must always be equated with poor politics. Folks in Vegas might not like it, but not all voters live in Vegas. You might want to hold off on your judgment. You never know, this honesty thing might make a comeback.
Anon 16/17:
Yup. He mopped the floor with them alright. The fact remains he’s still in big trouble and he better start producing.
Turkey:
I’m on the list for the cross board focus group, date to be determined as far as I know (for those who don’t know, Turkey came by the office, looked at the data and listed some requirements prior to writing a script. Right now we can’t do the script without breaking some user rules and those rules are in place as a result of some agreements between several boards).
Maybe we should take another look and do something stop gap until the focus group comes together to change the agreements?
HP:
Was that the same Supreme Court that came up with Roe v. Wade or was it the Dred Scott one? Unless we’re going to say the Supreme Court of the US can’t be the final arbiter of American legalities we pretty much have to stop saying GW stole the first one.
Shocking irregularities in Ohio? That I like more, but I’d also say its par for the course in the US. I’m sure the GOP is guilty from time to time, but a look at LBJ (the Democrat architect of “the Great Society”, children, and the president who really enacted the bulk of 1960s civil rights laws) has a huge history of electoral corruption, and, as a friend of mine (a Democrat) remarked when I asked him about Bush’s tricks – “We’ve been electing Democrats with dead people in Chicago for years”. In short, I think that there is, and always has been, plenty of cheating in the US when it comes to elections. They didn’t try to impeach Bushy, but they did try to impeach Clinton (excellent politician, old Bill, imho).
”
As for America? I regret that all formerly great institutions/polities are ultimately doomed to become parodies of themselves…
And there it is.”
God, I hope not, but I fear you may be correct. Could it be worse than robber barons or U.S. Grant or Warren Harding? They better do something quick down there, that’s for sure.
I think he did more than knock gambling in Nevada. He also said something along the lines that you don’t have to go to Vegas for trade shows. Trade shows are a huge chunk of their economy and I don’t have to tell you that the tax and job losses from a collapsing housing sector are killing Nevada. He almost put a nail in the coffin for them and for what? Was that really honesty or just someone who is really bad at politics.
I like Obama but he needs to get over himself intellectually and cool-wise and smarten up fast. He’s making an overwhelming majority look like gridlock. And here comes Palin, the biggest idiot of them all and he’ll lose to her or to someone else like her as she drives her Hummer through his policy initiatives. He’s got a healthcare bill that half of the Dems can’t sell to their constituents. It’s like 411 time for Barry O. Not 911, 411. Dial the Operator and get some help before we’re faced with 8 years of Jeb Bush–nod to HP–who apparently will be seeked out and destroyed/maritally-speaking by Angelia Jolie, if he gets anywhere near the white house:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1248970/Brangelina–Now-Brand-gelina-says-Hollywoods-leading-insider.html
That for me would be the 4th horsemen and signal The End for Los Estados Unidas if the marriage of the insane to the incapable came to fruition in a carefully stage-managed affair. Hippos Leukos. At least they’d save money because they wouldn’t have to repaint!
Wall Street Journal is talking Canadian housing bubble.
http://tinyurl.com/yhrhazf
SenorCaballero…. Grant didn’t have nukes (and he died a pauper). Hardings’ TeapotDome shenanigans are as good as institutionalized these dayz and the RobberBarons are clearly back on the block big time (only now we call them Investment Bankers)…
Income inequality in America is now worse than at the height of the gilded age (and that’s saying something!)… and there’s only one other place in the world where that metric is even worse… Yes, China.
VD, I don’t think JebBush could survive even one night with Jolie… but I dare say the DailyMail’s guy is more or less ‘on the money’ with his analysis of her ultimate intent…
AC # 27
)
)
When The Economist or WS Journal talk about it , sure sign that the bubble is having its last moments and the crash is imminent
On other news, the flame is coming to White Rock tomorrow at 6.30am – too early for me to wake up but I attended some ceremony near the pear today and I dont understand why the beer was not flowing like a river…It is such a great event after all. Some boring speach from officials imploring people to participate in all kind of fundrasing schemes, some self-congratulations, and then good buy, so pathetic… Come on canadianas, have a party, the Olympics are here at last, enjoy them
Yikes! “China’s banks probably made more new loans in January than the previous three months combined as lenders sought to head off a credit clampdown by policy makers seeking to stem rising inflation pressures.”
http://tinyurl.com/yklppgt
“sure sign that the bubble is having its last moments and the crash is imminent”
Actually, I think that’s just a sign that there IS a bubble, for a trigger signal I’m waiting for FTB to buy!
Turkey:
How do you spell “crack up boom” again?
Dailies – List || Sold
Vancouver East & West*
Attached & Detached
as of: 02/08/2010
New Listings – 71
Sold Listings – 68
Back On Market Listings – 1
Price Changes – 25
Vancouver All Areas*
Attached & Detached
as of:02/08/2010
New Listings – 260
Sold Listings – 162
Back On Market Listings -5
Price Changes – 79
i hope the listings staff were on holiday today…strong sell/list day…oh well, there is always tomorrow!
GG… Only the Germans and the Russians truly know how to ‘partay’… it’s in their DNA. And it’s ‘pier’ not ‘pear’. But we love ya anyway….
SenorCaballero… afterthought, yes – of course – ‘irregularities’ have long been a feature of Yanqui politics…. as for Lyndon, well – how could you not like a President who used to intimidate visiting foreign heads of state (men only, of course) by inviting them for a skinny dip in his pool (by all contemporary accounts, Lyndon was ‘equipped’ like a donkey)… and never mind the Great Society – he also got them to the moon. You can’t put a price tag on that.
Keep the dream alive, Noz… we’re counting on you.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GI.20100208.escenic_1460610/GIStory/
canada’s housing bubble is getting plenty of top billing in msm right here in canada….wonder wonder wonder if F will change the rules in 4 weeks….(federal budget)
its crazy, just nutso
is it cooling – RJ?
just fricking crash already
Some bankers have privately urged the government to cool the market by tightening the rules for mortgages.
While most economists believe activity will ease by the end of the year, the question is whether the market will land softly – or with a thud.
Feverish demand has taken even those in the sector by surprise.
Bill Szeto has worked in the real estate industry for 16 years and never seen such a dizzying rebound in the property market. In Vancouver, demand is being driven by people wanting to purchase before rates go up, by overseas buyers looking for an investment property, and by those who want to purchase before the HST affects the cost of new homes.
Add to that a number of sellers who have been holding off on listing their properties until after the Olympics, and the result is a big shortage of available homes, driving up prices, says Mr. Szeto, vice-president of Macdonald Realty in Vancouver.
“Our inventory has dropped dramatically from last year to half of what it was,” Mr. Szeto said. “Then, there’s this urgency right now to buy, and a lot of it comes down to affordability.”
CREA forecasts a price increase of 4.2 per cent in British Columbia this year. But it doesn’t expect the torrid pace of price increases in the first half of the year to last. And prices may even drop slightly next year, the group said.
One reason is that supply should loosen. Housing starts have risen for three months in a row, jumping 5.8 per cent to 186,300 units in January on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said in a separate report Monday.
“We’re not in the bubble camp,” said Peter Norman, senior director of economic consulting at Altus Group, a real estate consulting firm. “It’s hard to get terribly excited about a strong sustained recovery in the housing market in a situation where the unemployment rate remains elevated nationally. It’s hard to imagine this strength is going to continue unabated.”
A double-dip in the housing market is possible and could lead to “some house-price declines,” Mr. Norman said.
Factors that typically drive home prices – such as population growth, income trends and economic activity – mean “we do think home prices at the moment are somewhat overvalued, and that raises the risk you’ll see some softening over the next several years,” said Bank of Nova Scotia senior economist Adrienne Warren.
CREA, for its part, warns that year-over-year comparisons right now are skewed because of such a sharp slump last year, and may make the numbers look hotter than they actually are.
HP #34
I dont know about germans, but regarding russians you are spot on. Not only they know how to party but also have some of the most beautiful, smart , plentiful and accessible woman on the planet. Ah good old Russia – na zdarove!
Between Post #30 & Post #33, I am reminded that there’s no point in watching this thing unfold. It’ll be a year yet until prices come down to where we are today.
A junkbox at the corner of 6th Ave & Hemlock now has a sold sticker on it. A property neatly located at the junction of the 2nd Ave/6th Ave highway & Hemlock St., just under an onramp for the Granville St. bridge does not sell within weeks in anything other than a seller’s market. Fer frick’s sake.
this is it…this is the big one…the tide is going out….
Why debate on the price, real estate is just like any other speculative instruments now thanks to all the advertisements and effective propaganda. The price will go up as long as it’s profitable. People, you have to give up you idea and see thing as it is.
VD
Oh please, Palin isn’t my idea of a president but she has run a state with some rather weighty problems and did a pretty good job with it according to most accounts.
To suggest she’s just a brainless demagogue betrays very poor reasoning on your part. She has a track record against which we can judge her, whereas Mr Teleprompter has 20 years and $50,000 of donations with that nutjob Jim Wright..
I’d take fumbling syntax and unpolished verbiage – albeit with the right principles toward balanced budgets and small government – over the empty suit and his $1.6 trillion deficits and doe-eyed foreign policy each and every day of the week.
“When The Economist or WS Journal talk about it , sure sign that the bubble is having its last moments and the crash is imminent”
The Economist in fact called the global RE bubble in June 2005 and was the only major business publication to get it right. Can’t get any plainer than this can you:
The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops
NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?
According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries’ combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America’s stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.
The operative word is clearly, ‘farce’…. Today’s Zen….
[CTV/Globe] Schwarzenegger, Buble to carry torch
http://tinyurl.com/yz2cf54
psst…. VD, check out Chip/42… see what I mean? And there’s plenty more where he came from…
Afterthought… Arnie with the torch got me thinking about Anschluss and that was but one synaptic leap to this (with apologies to GG)….
http://tinyurl.com/2qh5ra
‘Springtime for Harper and Canada’
Interesting public dialogue going on right now between Flaherty, Carney, the Big Banks, and the RE industry. Looks to the layperson like a big game of musical chairs, no one wants the blame for a bubble when the music stops. Wonder what is being discussed behind closed doors?
Purp, I agree, I’m amazed at how much banter is going on… Carney appears to be siding with the bubble arguement, and the banks too (believe it or not), so lots of pressure on F for March 4th…..
43, after 9/11 I remember reading articles about investors preferring the relative safety of “bricks and mortar” (along with commodities such as gold)
Wasn’t there also a flight to safety in bonds in 2008? A similar trend in an uncertain market and RE future could suppress upward pressure on interest rates…no?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/five-warning-signs-of-a-bubble/article1461256/
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GI.20100209.escenic_1461723/GIStory/
Anon 50 –
Seems like the “bubble” is the G&M’s pet project these days.
Funny how the banks didn’t complain when the mortgage standards were loosened which helped fuel the bubble.
Not Much
I am somewhat shocked at the level of MSM coverage this is now getting.
I wonder – what happens March 4th? Does the gov’t make some changes – I think they may make some modest adjustments…guess we’ll have to wait to find out…
But this is interesting – inflection point?
VD, what are your thoughts?
anon #50: Of course the knobs at the banks don’t want the rules changed — what’s better for a bank than to have rules that encourage their “clients” to be indentured to it for life.
The morgage lenders are fueling this market, they should be held responsible for all this irational lending. Hopefully, Jim Flaherty grows some nuts and does the right thing by tightening the morgage rules.
Chip,
I can always count on you to back those on the right. But must you really stand up for Sarah Palin’s intellect? I’m halfway over to your side. She’s got her finger on the button but that button is squarely placed on ignorance and fear. Death panels? They want to kill grandma? Her career is documented with that. It’s demagoguery. Again, it’s not me who says that, it’s the Old Oxford English Dictionary.
And I give her credit. She may yet do something. Her Holy Trinity of Strategic Discourse is demagoguery, obfuscation and rhetoric. Ya know, “energy”, “budget cuts”, “tax” and “lift American spirits” is no way to answer a question on energy. For my money anyway.
As for Obama, doe-eyed, suit, 1.5 T in debt, whatever else you said, all true.
WoW,
OMG! The crash is HERE!!!! I can’t believe it!
VD, April 16th, 2012.
Purp #46,
This is my guess.
“So Bob, when do you think we’re gonna have to take action. We’ve gotta cottage up North and a few properties off Queen St. I’m hoping we can let it ride for another year or so. Let my secretary know a few weeks before so we can give Margery a call and she can list ‘em.”
OMG! They’re making Jan Arden carry the torch. She better find a good bra.
Ok… Now I’m really in trouble… it’s your fault, VD….
http://tinyurl.com/omvvk
Click “Bounceometer” and then select – ‘ahem’ – your cup size and anticipated level of activity…
Boyz only. Or Jan Arden if she’s shopping for appropriate ’sportswear’.
Ooh, you old horse, now you’ve done it! The lynch mob will be making a special to your hillbilly paradise next. VD can get away with that stuff, who expects a chick to know better? Head too full of make-up and gossip to realize what she’s saying, but a man of your gravitas should be more sensitive. Just look at what happened to Rob “relax and enjoy it” Chipman. Hasn’t been the same since.
VD
i still think it has begun
slowly
but
surely
Gravitas….love. that. word.
But I do know better, I do, I do, I do.
Funny. I just showed that to my husband and he couldn’t seem to concentrate on the ergonomic and shock absorption elements of the bras in the middle or on the right. And by the way, HP, HOW THE FECK did you source that site? I’m not sure I want to know but I want to know.
Well, truth be told – an academic budddy linked to it in an email a couple of years ago… and for some reason it was just one of those sites you don’t forget. Until yesterday, I hadn’t thought of it/seen it since - honest!
larry’s numbers show the market is still pretty solid
argh
is what it is – for now
hp/vd
here is some BB cup info fo’ yo:
“Bernanke outlines plan for pulling in stimulus”
http://tinyurl.com/yznoq7m
“
WOW
My inventory numbers have fallen to 49. Looks like the market is firming up. Price increases, last minute sales, pulled listings, all things considered many are Olympic related so I figure that this month will be sort of like December. Don’t read too much into it and wait to see what March brings.
Saw a couple of notable sales today on my auto-update this morning. A 620sqft 1-bedroom apartment in Kits, ground floor, 35 year old building, sold for close to $380K. Another 1-bed Kits apartment, higher floor, 15 year old building, 800 sqft, went for close to $600K. Last spring there were smaller units (600-650sqft) in the same building selling for about $330-350K.
Oh. and anything with “Arbutus Walk” in its description seems to go for substantially above asking.
The majority of the sales on my list, however, went for at or below asking.
Thanks D (and ftb)
D, let us know when (if ever) it gets back over 60…thanks.
So in an effort to keep the bubble going, we are now allowing all those “responsible” homeowners with young families to defer paying their property taxes. They may not have money to pay a measly 4 or 5 thousand in property taxes, but they have money for a 500k condo or house. Nothing like entrenching that sense of entitlement. Whatever happened for taking responsibility for your actions….
When this bubble pops, I will be writing the government asking for a deferral on paying my income taxes for a five years. I sure don’t want to support these irresponsible gits or the province that allowed it. After all, I am just a lowly, irresponsible renter with tons of cash in the bank…
VD
“I can always count on you to back those on the right. But must you really stand up for Sarah Palin’s intellect? I’m halfway over to your side. She’s got her finger on the button but that button is squarely placed on ignorance and fear. Death panels? They want to kill grandma? Her career is documented with that. It’s demagoguery. Again, it’s not me who says that, it’s the Old Oxford English Dictionary.”
Oh c’mon. Palin ran against the GOP in Alaska on a platform of smaller government and term limits. She negotiated the US’s biggest infrastructure project in history and – shock, horror — introduced a windfall tax on oil companies that fattened state revenues.
Such demagoguery!
As for the death panel crack, have you ever lived in the UK? I have, and the government has an organization called NICE, which decides which life-saving treatments are cost effective and which are not. Rationing in a national system is a fact and through that rationing governments, not individuals, decide who will prolong their lives and who will not.
And to single out Palin for ‘rhetoric and obfuscation.’ Unlike all those other politicians, you mean?
Look, I wouldn’t want Palin anywhere near the White House. There are far better people around. But she gets the big things right while Obama gets them all wrong. And the way the media goes after her while praising that doddering old fool Biden is simply ridiculous.
NICE makes decisions at a national level, and does not make considerations on a patient-by-patient basis. Any healthcare system has finite funding, so there will always be somebody making economic decisions somewhere along the line.
Again Chip, you miss the point.
The issue was and is, should America make changes to their HealthCare system? And are the proposed changes by the Democrats the right ones? A demagogue’s response is scare tactics. That, by definition is demagoguery. Sarah Palin is a demagogue. I’m not saying go out and shoot all the demagogues. I’m just saying that’s what she is. Not a matter of opinion. She could round it out with other things like imagination, intellect, conviction, instinct. So far she may have shown conviction and instinct. She also has a good sense of how to get around the bias of the media against her. But intellectual, nah. Imaginative as in solution-oriented? Not so far.
You need to accept standard definitions for certain behaviours and limitations. Fear and smear = demagogue. It’s too bad. If she spent some time in school and had the ability to apply herself she might be able to come up with a more substantive rebuttal. It’s a wait and see situation right now to see what the spin doctors can do with her. She doesn’t take direction too well either from what I can see.
As for getting the big things right or wrong, she’s apply for a job where international experience or ability is a must. So far are you seeing any spark there? At first, I thought the media gave her a pass on the handwriting/crib notes episode. They’ve been harping on her a lot lately. Of course, someone who works for the BBC would run straight past the crap about her needing notes or not and go to the heart of the issue which was, why would you need crib notes when you’re answering questions about your core platform issues and beliefs? And even with those notes her answers demonstrated a lack of knowledge of the topic. I mean she’s been in the bunker for a year now. I am disappointed as she’s my favourite dark horse.
VD:
“A demagogue’s response is scare tactics. That, by definition is demagoguery. Sarah Palin is a demagogue. I’m not saying go out and shoot all the demagogues.”
Thank God you don’t want to shoot all demogogues. We’d run out of politicians.
Quoting Garth Turner:
“Fortunately, there are citizens left in this country who abhor the politics of fear. Some of them have spoken out here. And I add my voice. Conservatives are largely manufacturing a threat, so they can pose a solution. Despite the fact recent stats show a big drop in crime, we’re supposed to be hiding indoors for fear the hoodie people show up”.
He was criticising Stephen Turner. Of course, the delicious irony is that he used the phrase that the Liberals made famous:
“You know the kind. In the streets. With hoodies. In Canada. We’re not making this up”. So both federal Liberals and Tories are guilty of demagoguery here.
What about Toronto Liberals, or their mayor? According to them you need to get the guns out of the hands of Reform voting rednecks in order to reduce gang shootings in TO and Vancouver.
And what about Obama? Is he selling fear when he says that he might have to invade Iran without the UN’s ok? (Yes, Newcomer, that’s what he’s saying these days. Remember the talk of bringing the trops home, closing Gitmo, and re-engaging the world? Wuppen? Who honest now? What US party starts more and bigger wars? GOP or peace loving Ivy league Democrats?)
Point being, who cares if she’s a demogogue? The media loves to work her over, and she’s not a Ronald Reagan. She’s got zero chance of winning an election in a same world, but she is a political force to be reckoned with. The GOP must keep her in the tent peeing out, rather than outside the tent peeing in, and that’s the ong and short of it.
BTW, we can’t discount the media’s bias. Can you imagine the hullabaloo if GW was still in office and announced that he might have to bypass the UN to straighten out Iran? We’d hear about war for oil, Haliburton, Cheney, how the inner circle has wanted to do it for years, etc. With Obama its page 6 stuff. (Mind you, people have ignored his desire for war for years).
“She could round it out with other things like imagination, intellect, conviction, instinct.”
Fair point, but let’s rake the competition over the coals again.
Imagination? Grow government, attack Wall Street, go into more debt, spread pork, write more laws. Sound like anyone we know? Sound imaginative?
Intellect? Slams Nevada, a big service union state, for no good reason. Slams cops before possessing all facts and then has beer summit to patch it up. Two examples of doing somethign that hurt him for no reason. He didn’t need to do either. He could have simply kept his own counsel for a short time, but I suspect he thinks the’s smarter than he is. That’s a recurring theme with liberal elitists, as history tends to show.
Smart is what smart does – Robert MacNamara is regarded as super intelligent, both for being an Ivy League architect of the Vietnam War and for later recognizing how foolish he was at that time. No card player would call him smart, mind you, and people in the 60s questioned his intellect. Now, of course, the left thinks he is smart because he’s recanted. Go figure. ( BTW, Palin said, in her podunk accent, that Obama needs to declare war on Iran to get re-elected. If she turns out to be right on that will she still be wrong?
)
Conviction: Obama has no conviction to speak of, does he? I thought his schtick was to promise everything to everybody and then keep changing goalposts.
Instinct: I wouldn’t give him high marks for that either. The first year of a presidency is the time to make wise use of your political capital. So far he’s squandered his. He’s dug himself a hole that he now has to get out of by attempting to get health care through in a brutal economy and a country that believes fervently in free enterprise and private property. That display of instinct, I think, is equivelant to the instinct he demonstrated when trying to get the Olympics for Chicago – again, if Bush had tried that and failed so miserably (and been so blatantly snubbed by the cheese eating surrender monkeys) we’d still be hearing about it (remember “Mission Accomplished!”?).
And, for instinctual, why try terrorists as criminals? That’s just dumb.
Why am I going on about this? Well, its fun, to begin with. Its downright bizarre that Sarah Palin is a serious political force in the US, but she is, and we should try to understand it. But, the double standard is also interesting – look at Obama and what he gets away with.
I like the States. I wish they had a leader who could both inspire and deliver, not one who inspires and waffles. They need some healing. I’ve said in the past that we’d look back with fondness on the Bush years (that still needs some time, mind you) but right now I sure look back with some fondness to the Clinton years. Didn’t things seem simple then?
This is an article written by an American journalist that offers an inside look at the athletes village:
The Olympic Village in Vancouver houses an estimated 2,730 athletes, coaches, officials and other members of national delegations. It is a city unto itself, with food, entertainment, medical services and other amenities. But the majority of the village is dedicated to housing.
In general, the accommodations are a series of simple, no-frills rooms — small beds in small bedrooms, and a kitchen that doesn’t have an oven or stove, lest a competition-weary athlete leave the gas on after a late-night snack (that’s why there’s a 24-hour McDonald’s on site). The process of determining who lives where in the village is a meticulous and, at times, very political one.
I doubt Bob Rennie would use his quote when he markets these units after the games. Didn’t anyone tell him that’s what $500K-$2 mil gets you in Vancouver???
McLovin
Hmmmm…. you’re still not getting the simplicity of what I’m saying. Obama, lots of problems as leader. Lots of tough issues facing him. In his hand he has many cards he can call on. Demagoguery one of them, of course. The Iran comment I have yet to read about so I don’t know the circumstances under which he used that. Maybe just throwing a bone to the Right.
Look, the guy may be the worst politician in the world. We will soon find out. Sarah Palin. Not in power. Has only held power for a fairly short time. Her record is hard to discern clearly from here now that it’s over but let’s be kind and say 50% liked her and said she did a swell job/50% thought she sucked. I don’t know her as a Governor. I do know her, however, as a presidential-level candidate. Her speeches during the McCain/Palin rallies were stunners. Full of fear mongering, terrifying people with the idea that Obama wasn’t American, etc., that he was “Arab” (as if that in itself is suspect or a sin), etc., etc. Demagoguery.
If you saw anything else in her arsenal, please link it because I’d like to see it. That’s all she’s got. (plus that media work-around i discussed). And to me it looks as if it’s a strategy that tries hard to cover for her lack of mental prowess. The fact that demagoguery is a technique used by other politicians does nothing to modify my view that she is a demagogue.
The same cannot be said as a description, in totality, of Obama.
So Chip, Rob, educate me. What else has Sarah Palin got? My money is still firmly placed with the spin doctors and whether or not they can remake her into a leader. That’s what I’ll be doing with my late nite TV watching. Not Conan. Not Leno. Not Letterman. The rise (and fall)(or not) of Sarah Palin, Reaganesque GOP ignition switch, Presidential hopeful, C student, demagogue, right-wing media darling.
McLovin, I would love a link to that story. The place looks like a frat house.
Anyway, went to see a friend carry the torch today. 50% of the experience was the emotion of her carrying it, 50% was the complete overabundance of RCMP officers barking orders in your ears. VDog, annoyed, turned around to tell them to tone it down. But why should they listen. They’ve got nothing else to do but enact their stupidly rehearsed, over-baked roles and turn the whole thing into a Kindergarten class. It was pathetic. They bring new meaning to the term Nanny State.
Corruption was the story of the 76 Olympics. Over-budgeting for security will be the story of this one.
This could be a big one. Really big. Everyone has heard about the amount of mortgage fraud in the States during the bubble build, the amount of nudge nudge, wink wink by the mortgage brokers, the pressure on appraisers to “hit the target”, the the burying ones head in the sand and chanting “Real Estate never goes down” by the regulators.
Low doc, no doc, ninja loans, stated income, so on and so on.
Whoda thunk those chickens might come home?
“It is payback time for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on some mortgages sold to the finance companies by lenders.
Stuck with about $300 billion in loans to borrowers at least 90 days behind on payments, Fannie and Freddie have unleashed armies of auditors and other employees to sift through mortgage files for proof of underwriting flaws. The two mortgage-finance companies are flexing their muscles to force banks to repurchase loans found to contain improper documentation about a borrower’s income or outright lies.”
Again (where is bold Rob?!)
“flexing their muscles to force banks to repurchase loans found to contain improper documentation about a borrower’s income or outright lies.”
Think of the implications… Phony and Fraudie, together with the FHA IS the mortgage market in the States these days. Courtesy of the bailout ethos so prevalent they have taken literally trillions of dollars in stinky loans off the big banks hands and put them squarely onto the taxpayers shoulders, now they have full legal authority to thrust that crap back where it belongs.
http://tinyurl.com/yallqoz
This one could be big.
Same story, more details.
http://tinyurl.com/y942yeq
75, the condos in the athletes’ village do have all the regular kitchen appliances. But they’ve been “boarded over” while the Olympic representatives are staying there. I also read that they’ve laid cheap carpet over the top of all the fancy hardwood flooring in there. This was in the Vancouver Sun a few months ago, could probably still find it in their online archives.
Cheap carpet is the nicest way to welcome the world. Especially if they party too hard and puke on the rug. Makes for a simple wipe-up.
Off topic….
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/National+real+estate+association+members+widen+access/2547601/story.html
National real estate association to ask its members to widen access to MLS
Ouch! That’s quite the snag when you’re a foreign buyer cashing out and you’ve got very little equity in your property:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppV9l6zjQOA
If you’re operating at a loss, which many of you are:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wKhIR3r8jU
Watching “agent vs agent” right now (bored in a gibsons hotel room) and this guy has some high hopes. He wants to buy a 700K place in toronto and rent out the bottom 2 floors out and only spend $1000 a month of his own money. He figures he needs 2600 in rental income to pull this off. What renter would pay 1300 for a lower floor when the owner pays less for a higher floor? The renters may not know this, but if he finds anything close to pulling this off I will be shocked. Interested to see how it turns out. They keep saying the guy rented for 15 years as if is apauling or something. I can see where everyone gets the “buying is better” mentality.
Meanwhile Gibsons is a pretty nice little town (here for a few days for work). WoW would be going crazy because I see a lot of for sale signs. MLS says there are 145 places for sale and wikipedia says there is 4000 people here. If we say at least 2 people per place that is almost 10% of the houses in the city for sale.
WoW,
Larry is calling your name. He’s writing about the Great Depression and how slowly we slid into it with a mini-building boom carrying on for a little while after the stock crash. A delicious little hint for you to go back to asking him if it’s all over, perhaps? I think he misses you!
Well he ended up paying 710K but it gave no details on how much he could rent the other 3 floors for. Man the realtor made 18K for showing him a couple of houses and calling in offers, I think im in the wrong business.
The next show on is people trying to sell their place in the states which the bought 4 years ago for 121K for 151K. The realtor doesnt see it happening and is trying to show them they need to go lower.
How can someone see a guy pay 710K in toronto and these people praying to get 150K for their house (a smaller house, but still) and not see a huge problem?
V-Dog:
She is a demagogue. But she’s got good instinct, no lack of imagination, plenty of conviction. Intellect? Hard to measure in both of them. She looks dumb, but is doing ok given what most feel she was blessed with. He looks smart but acts dumb.
Presidential candidate for GOP? Not going to happen. Spin doctors don’t pull that much weight. They don’t need a candidate for another 2 years. Look how fast she popped up. Look how fast Obama popped up. She’s not going to make that cut (I’ll put $20 on it right now).
She could, however, remain a political force, which is why she’s a boon to the Democrats and a challenge to the GOP. The Dems need to get out of her way and the Republicans have to be careful not to be seen obstructing her.
All that said, should she be dismissed as a right wing media darling demagogue? I think not. What does she have? What you call demagoguery some would call the common touch – a touch that Obama hasn’t demonstrated having outside of speeches (he can’t get legislation passed by his own party and criticized a Republican candidate for driving a Chev P/U after the US govt. bought the company). She is the anti-Obama in many ways, and remember, the US is deeply divided politically, so being the anti-Obama (i.e., not an Ivy League lawyer elitist brainiac) isn’t as much of a liability as some may think. Woman, pro-life (and walks that walk), from a small state, not an insider, not pro-big government. So she doesn’t know a lot about the outside world. That’s not a liability in American politics. Never has been. In fact, being worldly, instead of provincial, can be a liability there.
“The Iran comment I have yet to read about so I don’t know the circumstances under which he used that. Maybe just throwing a bone to the Right.”
That’s no bone throw. He’s been a closet hawk for years, like many brainiac Democrats through history. There’s nothing wrong with bearing any burden so long as its for the right reason (and Republicans don’t come up with those, only Democrats).
Don’t get me wrong – I’m not pro-Palin or pro-right wing. I’m just saying they’re both politicians, and Palin gets a harder ride than Obama.
Jimmy:
Interesting. CREA is telling me something different. I’ll write more on it later. BTW, I’ll list property for anyone, flat fee, $2500. Any takers? Sort of puts paid to media and Competition Bureau reports that we can’t do that now, doesn’t it? BTW, if I act as a real estate agent (as defined by provincial law) but don’t actually provide agency services (as the Competition Bureau seems to want) and I still have E&O insurance (required by provincial law) will I still be liable for agency duties should someone suffer a loss selling real estate on their own after using me as a mere “lister”? Will my insurer cover me if I have an agreement with the seller saying I’m not providing agency? Will that mean the lawyer will have to go after me, rather than my insurance co? Careful what you wish for, eh?
A couple properties back on the market in Point Grey — can anyone pull up the sales history? (Q for Rob or others with access to MLS)
V808623
3919 W BROADWAY AV, Vancouver
I think this place sold about a year ago, as an estate sale. From the photos, it’s been cosmetically updated and looks lived-in. 1930s, solid, but not as nice as the mcmansions on the block. Anyone know what it sold for last time?
V799759
4183 W 11TH AV
Looks like it’s vacant and staged. Did this place get missed in the big “Bull Run” last spring? Or did it get bought and is now being flipped?
Thanks in advance,
Whybuywhenucanrent’til’13?
Predicting a 50% drop in Van area RE from April 2008 – April 2012, corrected for inflation and artificially low interest rates…
AC (79) wrote
>> The two mortgage-finance companies are flexing their muscles to force banks to repurchase loans found to contain improper documentation about a borrower’s income or outright lies.<<
2 years ago this would make the news. 18 months ago it would be big news.
Today? The US finance industry is immune from any wrongdoing past present or future.
How do see anyone actually being held accountable for this??? Who would possibly back up Fannie and Freddie, when all levels of US gov’t have been shown to be overly excited about bailing out banks and giving them every possible break they can dream up?
I’m curious,
WBWUCR’t'13?
Looked them up in BC Assessment, one of them shows up:
4183 11TH AVE W VANCOUVER V6R 2L5 $1,695,000 05/Feb/2009
Sold for $1.7M Feb 2009, listed at $2.1M Feb 2010
Let’s see how Mr. Flipper is doing
* Let’s say, closing costs = $25K (I’m kinda rusty on this, feel free to correct)
* Down payment + closing costs = $225K, opportunity cost @ 2%/yr = $4.5K (‘cept if they’d have bought Canadian bank stock it would be 75% ROI)
* Interest, 1 yr @ 4%/yr = $60K
* Tax, I dunno, $10K/yr?
* Insurance, $2K/yr?
* Lawn care and upkeep, $1K/yr
* Utilities $2K
* Staging, $5K
* RE fees at closing: $57K
Total costs, $167K
Capital gain, $430K
Net gain, $263K
Not half bad! Over 100% ROI. If it actually sells…
RobertsCreek, you going to buy it?
WBWUCR’t'13?
WhyBuy:
“How do see anyone actually being held accountable for this?”
There may, just possibly may be a realization dawning that bailing out the banks DIDN’T fix the economy and this (the GSE putbacks) is a legal and effective way to shift the risk back where it should have been all the time. I’ll have to see this ramp up hugely before I believe it, but it is an encouraging sign.
They need a healthy banking system, ’tis true. Nothing says they need the banks they have, especially sick in the culture as well as the books as they are. Cut them loose and let them explode, throw a few executives in to hard time for fraud, issue new banking charters under a modernized Glass-Steagal, repudiate all debts the taxpayer should never have been saddled with. Clean house but good! And get on with the important job of rebuilding the economy into something a little less Ponzi-ish.
Hey, I can dream, can’t I? And with Volcker being taken a bit more seriously, and evidence mounting that the bailouts aren’t working… I don’t think Obama is as dumb as Bush or Palin…
The flags at the top of the roller-coaster will look something like this: http://tinyurl.com/yhhdtjp
“It’s not clear what problem Canada’s chartered banks want the federal government to solve by toughening mortgage rules.”
Rob,
You are so smart! Mostly because I agree with everything you said above. Now, onto Obama’s Bone. Why is it that he can say virtually the same things Bush did, act in ways Bush did and none of my left-wing friends go into an anti-GWB-Style Frenzy? I find it incredibly frustrating to watch my left-wing friends behave like right-wing conspiracy nutjobs during a Republican presidential period only to see them snuggle up to the exact same policy when it comes out of the mouth of Obama?
Any experience with this? Any thoughts? (Not that I want to turn this blog into a plog but we are, like, gonna have to wait freakin’ 2 years now for another bear market…. may as well waste our time productively).
V-Dog:
No experience, only thoughts. I first started noticing some Republican friends going nuts over Clinton (actually, a weed growing California anti-tax musician landlord Republican is the best example- only in California!). They would continually go on and on about how Clinton should be held to a higher moral standard. The irony in their positions (and remember, Rush Limbaugh, Newt Gingrich and co. were just getting started then) led me to a diagnosis of insanity. They’d be incensed, and I, while I could sympathize with the degree of their emotion, couldn’t share it. Clinton seemed like a capable politician and a passable leader.
Next came Bush and roles reversed. I thought it couldn’t get worse, but it did, in a big way. Red/blue states, fly-over country, stereotypes out the proverbial ying-yang. Media really fed that. It worked for some people (the name Karl Rove may be bouncing around your head now) but it was clearly bad for the country’s long term political health. Politics of division? Good short term, bad long term. Its like chopping up the stairs to burn in the fireplace.
Canadians and our media is plenty guilty too – we go off about Southern born again Christians and rednecks and forget that Washington has the death penalty and plenty of handguns, or that Montana defeated gay marriage at the same time that it relaxed laws on marijuana or that California droped gay marriage but allows dope growing. Everybody, in short, is glossing over important data. A lot of foolish conclusions were reached and treated as fact:
- Gore smart, Bush stupid. (any parallels today?
)
-Bush stole the election, and the Supreme Court was his partner in crime .
-Bush stole the election, and Ralph Nader played no role in splitting the vote.
-Bush stole the election, despite winning more votes than any other presidential candidate previously.
-Ignorant states voted for Bush, and they are in “fly over” country, which typically means they are really right wing, Christian, gun loving and not like, well, not like Massachussets, New York or California.
-The country really wanted a Democrat, both times, but somehow destiny was subverted.
-George Bush was a hawk/war president/always wanted to get even for his Daddy’s failure to invade Iraq in Gulf War 1.
-Bush’s inner circle were a secret society of neo-Cons bent on a new world order.
Time has passed. Bush is gone. The new world order didn’t come. Rummy, Cheny and co. are history. Its forgotten that in a right wing middle age white guy secret society Condoleeza Wright and Colin Powell exercised a lot of power and influence. Its ignored that many states that voted for Bush elected Democratic governors and congressmen at the same time (the US system allows that, and it almost always happens). Liberal legislation of one variety would be voted down while other liberal legislation would pass. As the worst president in history Bush doesn’t rank in the top 5. He’s not even the most unpopular in my memory.
What are we left with? The most powerful and arguably most important (in terms of influence) country in the world is stumbling. They’re in debt. Their economy is screwed. They are bitching at each other. They are less and less the light unto nations that they should be (after all, the idea that all of us are created equal and imbued with the rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness aren’t bad ideals).
I had hoped that after Bush we’d close the door on the mindless divisiveness. A happy, healthy, well adjusted US is in everyone’s interests. After all, they’ve been described as a big teenager with a Hummer. They’ll always be a danger, but its better for all of us if they’re a well adjusted teenager as opposed to a juvenile delinquent teenager.
I’m frustrated that Obama isn’t the guy to effect that healing. He’s left too much to the old warhorses of the Democratic party, and there is too mush score settling and too little leadership. They need an FDR. They didn’t get one.
“They need an FDR. They didn’t get one”
Senor Caballero, you can say that again… :) …
As regards Palintologist’s future prospects, just ask any Yanqui prime-time network show-runner if they’ve ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the American television audience…. and there you have it.
VD – I do believe you’re gonna your bear RE market sooner vs. later… much sooner.
Sorry, no Zen today… just these… offered without comment.
[TruthDig] The Origins of Tea Party Radicalism
http://tinyurl.com/y9v5fxs
[Economist] Scenes from a counter-revolution
http://tinyurl.com/ydjhbxs
[AlterNet] Mall Riots: Why Are Some Americans Becoming Violent Shoppers?
http://tinyurl.com/y8r7qos
[Atlantic] How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America
http://tinyurl.com/y8us8rj
HP
Why do you think VD will get her bear sooner (much sooner)?
friend of mine listed townhome a few weeks ago. 4 offers on first night, all over list. He accepted offer of 25k over. He made 200k profit. Market is still very hot as there seems to be an abundance of eager buyers.
Rob,
You realize you’ve opened a can of worms by posting all that accurate reflections of the last 9 years and how it really played out. I will do my best to defend the onslaught of aggression you are about to receive from arrogant, self-righteous, left-only leaning Canadians(British Columbians) who read this blog. But you do pretty well on your own.
That is exactly how the Bush years played out. So much drama, so much damaging partisanship. Crap, I was so hopeful that Obama could lead both sides. My first wake-up call was when I went to an interview for a freelance gig in Bellevue, WA. It all went swimmingly and I, in my infinite ignorance, asked the interviewer who was originally from Wisconsin if she ever came up to visit Canada. She hemmed and hawed and said not really because Canadians are so condescending and superior. It took me about 5 years after that to really understand what she meant. And I find it a painful characteristic in Canadians, especially when we drink from the same bloodied oil well that Americans have negotiated the price for.
As for your one smiley face. Your one wink at my opinion that GBW and SP are dumb. They are conventionally dumb. They can’t speak. They don’t debate very well. But that doesn’t have a hoot to do with either politics or leadership, I realize that. I just felt a lot better being able to see Obama’s ability to understand many of the issues he presides over. However, now that he understands it so well, he is unable to effect much change. But I think it’s only fair to say he’s been handed an unbelievable deck of cards–most of which are stacked against anyone in that hot seat. Their government has gotten so far out of hand and their political system, I don’t know how they’re going to get out of their mess.
One more thing…
Worst of which was to give their manufacturing base away in order to ensure profits for corporations. I don’t know how they’re going to reverse that. And I can’t see any other way out of this mess long-term for them (and us) if we don’t start producing something. Trading real estate only takes the economy so far, aye?
HP,
Fingers crossed but I’m factoring a 12-month period of chicken, where the sellers won’t sell and the buyers are STILL frustrated.
VD
It starts in a month. Tops.
March 4th, Federal Budget release.
Condoleeza Wright?
Will Carney move before Bernake?
FT:
Yeah, Condoleeza Wright. Great great grandaughter, on the black side of the family, of Orville and Wilbur! (Sorry, Condi!)
V-Dog:
Debating and speaking are learned skills. They may require intelligence to learn, but they aren’t good measure of relative intelligence.
Bush’s SAT score was 1206 (566 Verbal, 640 Math). See the upper-left
corner of his Yale transcript:
http://www.iuptown.com/YaleProtest/bushs_yale_transcript.htm
This web page offers a theoretical conversion of pre-1974 SAT scores to IQ:
http://members.shaw.ca/delajara/Pre1974SAT.html
Based on that conversion chart, Bush’s IQ would be about 129.
“Although his SAT score is not public knowledge, it is estimated that President Barack Obama has an IQ in the 121 – 137 range.”
Of course, some estimate it to be in the 170 range, but he did say the US had 57 States, so that’s doubtful.
Point being, both of them are smart, neither is dumb. You don’t get to the White House by being stupid, and you dont win it twice as a moron, even if you don’t talk good.
I’m not as convinced as you that Obama understands what he’s presiding over better than anyone else. I’m not even sure he’s presiding as much as the decider did. Again, he doesn’t lead his party and it doesn’t do what he wants it to. Perhaps he does understand, but who cares? He’s not using the understanding to accomplish anything.
“Worst of which was to give their manufacturing base away in order to ensure profits for corporations.Worst of which was to give their manufacturing base away in order to ensure profits for corporations.”
Who, exactly, is the “they”? When Gildan, a Canadian company making socks and T-Shirts, buys a US southeast textile company to acquire access to Wal-Mart, and then outsources the jobs to the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Honduras, its not like George Bush was consulted. When Cessna manufactures a new plane in China, test flies it there, takes it apart and reassembles it in the US, its not like the Congressmen in Kansas agreed to the move so that corporate profits were ensured. We live in the same world as everyone else and we trade to make profits. The T-shirts have to be cheap or I won’t buy them for my hockey team. The plane has to be cheap or I won’t rent it to learn how to fly.
If you can’t make the product at a profit in the US you make it somewhere else or you close your doors. A manufacturing base that wants high wages and a good lifestyle can’t do that unless it adds sufficient value. That value can’t be added through legislation. Want the US to compete in manufacturing again quickly? Break unions, forget healthcare, open the borders to illegal workers and force China to de-link the RMB. Sound attractive?
For us, let’s face it, we’re hewers of wood and drawers of water. Our manufacturing runs counter to that, and contributes to regional disaffection (dating back to the NP). The current global economy bodes well for us. We just need to learn how to market tar sands as green and come to grips with the idea that Ontario is going to become less important economically in the next 100 years (with concurrent fallout on Quebec – without Ontario does Quebec matter anywhere near as much?)
92 Whybuywhenucanrent? Thu, Feb 11, 2010 | 1:12 am
Funny you still think of me-I notice you list all the expenses down to the lawn care but not the benefit of owners equivalent to rent savings-shows a tendency towards seeing the negative I would guess
Hey RobertsCreek –
Yeah, you’re the only person around here that is ever serious about actually buying anything.
The house looks like it has sat empty for a year — it was bought to flip, so no intrinsic value unless the owner stops by once in a while to put a lawnchair on that patio or bring a boyfriend over for a nice evening of R&R.
How about it? Pack up the family and move to Point Grey, change your moniker to “PtGreyRulz!” ???
RG
>> a tendency towards seeing the negative I would guess
Hey, I gave them a pretax profit of $263K on their $225K investment — that’s not particularly negative, is it?
WBWUCR’t'13?