January 10 Stats Update
Inventory for REBGV and FVREB attached and detached was 13,659 (12,594 last week), of which 4,545 (4,275 last week), or 33.27%, were over 90s. For the REBGV the numbers were 8,461 (7,714 last week), 2,817 (2,620 last week) and 33.29%. For the FVREB the numbers were 5,198 (4,880 last week), 1,728 (1,655 last week) and 33.24%. Inventory has risen between 7% and 10% in the first week of the year.
You can find last year’s first week numbers for here.
REBGV detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,201 new listings (197 last week), 224 price changes, and 370 sales (289 last week) for a sell/list of 30.80% (146.7% last week).
8,461/(370*4.25) = 5.38 MOI (6.28 last week)
FVREB detached and attached numbers for last week were 613 new listings (107 last week), 133 price changes, and 202 sales (174 last week)for a sell/list of 32.95% (162.62% last week).
5,198/(202 *4.25)= 6.05 MOI (6.60 last week)
Combined detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,864 new listings (304 last week), 357 price changes, and 572 sales (463 last week). Sell/list was 3068% (152.3% last week).
13,659/(572*4.25) = 5.62 MOI (6.40 last week).
First chart is REBGV, second if FVREB, third is combined. All stats courtesy of the REBGV, and while every effort has been made to ensure their accuracy, the REBGV assumes no responsibility for them.
Rob’s Report Generator
Data for File: SalesJanuary102010REBGV.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 370 | $642,042.43 | $622,456.29 | -$19,586.14 | -2.57% | 63 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 236 | $446,216.99 | $435,645.33 | -$10,571.66 | -2.38% | 56 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 124 | $1,027,241.84 | $991,939.76 | -$35,302.08 | -2.59% | 68 |
Data for File: SalesJanuary102010FVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 202 | $433,050.50 | $422,300.26 | -$10,750.24 | -2.43% | 69 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 79 | $307,627.82 | $300,019.61 | -$7,608.22 | -2.39% | 66 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 105 | $561,867.85 | $548,161.05 | -$13,706.80 | -2.32% | 71 |
Data for File: SalesJanuary102010REBGVFVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 572 | $568,237.59 | $551,771.82 | -$16,465.77 | -2.52% | 65 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 315 | $411,459.71 | $401,631.26 | -$9,828.45 | -2.38% | 58 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 229 | $813,860.75 | $788,460.44 | -$25,400.31 | -2.47% | 69 |
95 comments
Just a “groggy” first week back – thats all. You cannot expect buyers to be jumping out there this early – give them a couple of weeks and things will be just as strong as before the holidays.
Sell/list 30% vs 34% last year. Wasn’t it snowing heavily a year ago? or was that later?
This morning’s best… both may amuse…
[ZeroHedge] China Is No Dubai Or Enron [?!]
….According to Knight Frank, average prices for new homes year-to-date in November 2009 rose by 68% in Shanghai, 66% in Beijing and 51% in Shenzhen. Beijing’s Chaoyang district, which represents a third of all residential property deals in the capital, a typical 1,000-sq.-ft. apartment costs about 80 times the average annual income of the city’s residents….
http://tinyurl.com/yhzs6o8
[HuffPo] NBC Will Lose Money On Winter Olympics [!]
http://tinyurl.com/yejcp5q
Everybody listing early due to the Olympics….This was expected 100%. Dont expect to see demand fall until interest rates tick up.
MOI falls early in the month due to year/month-end expiries…still high.
Ho Hum…valid consideration…but…as we are in uncharted waters, all bears watching.
Ho Hum
If listings surge before the Olympics could this put a damper on the ‘panicked’ buyers who have no inventory (as of late) to choose from? Or do you think the surge in buying will be even greater?
What do you make of the near tripling in MOI?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/10/AR2010011002767.html?hpid=topnews
MOI starting to fall. That’s what I see above.
Yup, nothing to see here – our normal market is now a “hot market.” Still plenty of people being told to buy – and plenty of people buying.
Every subway sandwich artist, every supply teacher, every fresh university graduate are buying, despite the absence of job security, down payments, proven credit, and they will continue to buy here…there are more bulls than bears running now, and the party can continue for a long time as we have since over the past 8 years….
Bank of Canada See No Housing Bubble
http://www.canada.com/business/fp/Housing+market+bubble+says/2429324/story.html
Party Hearty Dudes….
[ROB] Bank of Canada won’t raise rates to cool housing
http://tinyurl.com/y8u728e
sweet – the party continues – lets make this a solid decade of continuous price increases
hey, if they start to go down, it will take another decade
sweet – a decade for all those prudent people sitting on the sidelines
always remember and don’t ever forget:
debt = wealth :-)
BS,
Are most current buyers using 100% cash? Perhaps CMHC and interest rates are not an issue?
Why is MOI so high and sell list at 31%?
This was pretty obvious. Rates will not rise to to stem asset appreciation in housing. Such a move is NOT consistent with role of monetary policy, and the role of the central bank to maintain economy wide inflation at target levels. Rather, expect to see a fiscal response by the Department of Finance through the CMHC conduit. Lower amortization periods and higher down payments.Interest rates will rise, but not to combat housing appreciation.
In th absence of CMHC/Genworth/etc insurance, default risk increases considerably for the lender since they CANNOT buy the insurance themselves in this instance. the mortgage loan does not meet the requirements for insurance.
V-Dog is unhappy to be right. No interest rate hikes in March either. Run to continue on Vancouver housing. AnonyWow, 5 point whatever is not high MOI. It’s low. It’s a seller’s market. 8 MOI would be interesting but how do we get there with rates so low?
Why don’t you just buy a crapped out place, repaint, call Ikea for the kitchen and remarket in the Spring? It might be fun. If you time it wrong, you can give it to your wife because if you don’t buy a place soon, you’re gonna be in the dog house, big time !!
V-Dog; waiting for the market to temper, but looks like I will need to capitulate soon. Wife wants a place- and I can’t hold her off for much longer.
Beans,
Howz your queer eye for the straight guy? Can you buy a dump with pink carpets and plaid drapes? Will your wife stomach it? That’s your best bet. Just rip everything out and finish simply but elegantly.
And all along, Beans, I thought you were bullish.
Tip for you:
http://www.diffrey.se/
Cabinets from Ikea, a little somethin’ different from diffrey. (Hope your Norwegian is OK).
Oh, and these people too:
http://www.bemz.com
neither bull nor bear- just an empiricist that looks for quantitative evidence. Why doesn’t pure forward looking metrics analysis work that well in the housing market or anything else except for pure sciences? Because we don’t have a good handle of “system shocks” which change historical relationships. We don’t have a clue when rates will rise, whether we will see a double dip in US markets, whether the government will change mortgage insurance rules etc.
Beans/21… that’s why the social sciences are so much more fun!
… Speaking of fun… time for today’s ZenMoments… [the following stories only appear to be related]….
[Guardian] Research finds Neanderthals enjoyed makeup
http://tinyurl.com/ykg43bf
[NYT] Sarah Palin to Contribute to Fox News
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ych6dlx
RC 146 from the last thread
I have noticed that when things are slow in the market, like in the second half of 2008, RC likes to post long diatribes and response to comments – often on tangential issues. But when the market is hot, comments come at the end of the day, or the next day, and tend to be a lot more brief.
Given recent commentary, maybe the market is slowing : ) lol
Anonymous/WOW – you should be analyzing RC’s textual responses as opposed to MOI or sell/list ratios from this point forward
Trend 23:
You were probably trained in 1970’s Kremlinology – analyzing the Politburo based on where figures turned up in official photos!
HP:
Glad to see we’re aren’t (and yet clearly are) losing Sarah Palin. Works great both ways. She stays to entertain, yet moves further and further away from poltical office. As someone recently wrote, why be Evita when you can be Madonna?
Beans:
“Why doesn’t pure forward looking metrics analysis work that well in the housing market or anything else except for pure sciences?”
Science has limits, no? Its an intellectual construct, not an absolute. If you draw strict enough boundaries around the question it can explain it, but no human can draw strict enough boundaries about the actions of humans. Can’t be done.
23
Too funny.
That said, are you noticing any changes?
Rob – the key difference is testable theories in a controlled laboratory environment (eliminating noise and external variables). The closest social sciences have are are focus groups, surveys. Increasingly, they are moving more towards computer testbeds compared to in-room experiments but even this work is not as testable as pure sciences.
I am focusing about relative not absolute results.
For those expecting to make huge $$$ from renting to homes out during the Olympics, some of them may now be saying “Oh F###!”
Olympic property rentals: Great expectations take a hit
‘It’s an oversupplied market’
By Bruce Constantineau, Vancouver Sun
http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/Olympic+property+rentals+Great+expectations+take/2430230/story.html
I was shopping for groceries tonight, and had to pause for thought at the cheese section. $10 for a tiny little lump of nondescript local yellow mush. Some of the fancier imports were over $15. When can we expect a return to fundamentals, to bring cheese prices back in line with the average Vancouver household income?
Yours sincerely,
Concerned of Downtown
#39
gas would be $.35 per little…in line with local income earners! that is fundamental.
Figures Bruce Constantineau writes something I’ve been posting about for 5 months, now. Did he actually type up this quote and not pursue a more interesting line of questioning:
“Szekely feels the slow economy played a major role in producing a Games-property-rental oversupply — with fewer people likely to visit Vancouver and Whistler than previously expected…”
Wazzat? Fewer people are likely to come to the Games? Izat what yer sayin? But no… Bruce keeps on keepin’ on.
Hey Vancouver Sun journalists, why not pick up the phone and call up one of the allegedly 100% booked hotels for the Olympics and see if you can casually book a room? That could give you something to do for at least 10 minutes this week.
Or maybe report on the people who want to give away their apartment for FREE during the Olympics just to swap with someone else somewhere else:
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/search/swp?query=olympics&catAbbreviation=swp&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max&bedrooms=
Hi Rob
Would you mind providing some mid-week snippets on how the sell/list is proceeding this month? I’m ultra eager to see which way the wind is blowing and if we are indeed sniffing at the early fumes of a change in sentiment.
Hugs & Kisses
RJ and I were out last night. We both agreed.
listings hiyer so they say so how cum i see so many houses?
prices hiyer not low bull marcet
34-36:
6 minutes to have a double shot of whiskey, write one sentence and hit submit? And you can do it three times in a row? I’m impressed. That’s world-class, to suit our city.
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GI.20100112.escenic_1428014/GIStory/
more tightening expected in the months ahead
any thoughts on how this could influence buying by asian investors?
New-housing prices rise
Between October and November, prices increased the most in St. Catharines – Niagara (up 1.4 per cent), Quebec City (0.9) and St. John’s and Windsor (both up 0.7 per cent)……..
New housing prices continued to fall in Western Canada, although at a slower pace than in previous months.
http://tinyurl.com/ydogjdg
Anon/38…
Asian RE investment patterns are more likely to be influenced by the following developments than by interest rate movements – either there 0r here…
[NYT] China Urges US to Halt Arms Sales to Taiwan
http://tinyurl.com/yb2rb4e
[AFP] China did not notify US before anti-missile test: Pentagon
http://tinyurl.com/ya3w798
[AlterNet] Controlling Yemen Is Just Part of Obama’s Power Game with China
http://tinyurl.com/y9qfo2p
Hey AnonyWow,
Garth is singing your tune:
The mugging
January 11th, 2010
As the man history will remember taking the country’s finances down a rabbit hole, Jim Flaherty should expect certain things. Not being finance minister after the last election’s a high probability. Being mugged earlier, a certainty.
In fact, already happened. In a Goldman Sachsy sorta way. You know, with class and subterfuge.
The Governor of the Bank of Canada even got other people to hold the little guy down and beat the crap out of him, while he kept his cuffs clean in that glass and stone tower. In case you missed it (and most did), Mark Carney just took all the blame he’s been shouldering for a housing bubble, for middle class people being priced out of their own homes, for a burgeoning subprime-like negative equity crisis, and dumped it on the guy lying in the alley.
It came Monday in a carefully-worded speech spelling out that the central bank would not be immediately raising the cost of money to address the gassed-up real estate market because of collateral damage. “If the Bank were to raise interest rates to cool the housing market now…we would, in essence, be dousing the entire Canadian economy with cold water just as it emerges from a recession.”
And that, damn sure, is true enough. Teaser Carney interest rates caused the housing market to tank up like a swollen gland, but jacking up loan costs now would also hurt small business, big business and jobs. So, back to Plan A: rate hikes this summer.
Of course, that was not the news. We knew that. Nobody here was expecting a rate hike in the winter. But nor were we expecting Carney would leave a body behind, either.
But he did. “Ultimately,” Carney’s spokesguy said, “it is the minister of finance who is responsible for the sound stewardship of the financial system.” That means, “the government could increase capital requirements for lending institutions, adjust the loan-to-value ratios and change the terms and conditions required to obtain mandatory mortgage insurance.”
So, there you have it. Mr. Carney’s respectfully telling you he’s had enough of your lip and plebeian wailing. Go dump on Jim.
And with that, everyone should be expecting the next big move to come in the March 4th budget, when the expendable Mr. Flaherty could announce that in order to get CMHC insurance, a buyer will need 10% down and be able to swing a 30-year amortized mortgage. That will have a major impact on the housing market, perhaps much more dramatic and swift than any mortgage rate hike.
(Not to say loan rates couldn’t still rise, since long-term mortgages are set in the bond market – where Mark Carney, Jim Flaherty or even that Avatar dude have no influence.)
So will this happen?
Maybe. But I’m thinking now, maybe not. The reason is a market condition which in itself could turn a seller’s market into a rapidly-cooling, more balanced situation – setting it up for a softer plunge once BoC rates do start climbing, post-July. And that, of course, is listings.
I’ve hinted here a couple of times that the number of houses for sale will probably explode, starting about now. Human nature makes people reluctant to put their homes on the market when prices are shooting higher, a reality which has helped demand overwhelm supply and increase prices. Why would folks act that way? Simply because homeowners in a housing boom feel wealthy and like to wallow in it, plus they don’t look forward to selling, then buying again from a greedy person such as themselves.
By the same token, listings always swell when markets start to level off, or decline. That’s when owners realize they just missed the bus. It’s a Canadian thing.
In any case, I have no doubt an avalanche of new properties will be the big real estate story in the weeks ahead. Hell, maybe it’s already happening. I see listings in Vancouver have shot ahead dramatically – doubling pre-Christmas levels – with the sales-to-listing ratio plunging to 31% from over 90%.
Hmm. Already started? But maybe Mark knows that, too.
Maybe he knows everything.
Garth is an ex politician, and his “predictions” and “solid arguments” as to why the market will collapse change daily with the political winds. Zero respect for the guy. In the last two months, he went from calling for a collapse in the next year or two to the next decade. Gee, a correction after two decades of gains in this city? Say it ain’t so…
RC - You have admit it was a good one:) I hope anon/WOW do start analyzing your responses though
V-Dog:
You just like the fact that Garth recognizes what you’ve already pointed out:
“It came Monday in a carefully-worded speech spelling out that the central bank would not be immediately raising the cost of money to address the gassed-up real estate market because of collateral damage.”
Didn’t you essentially say the same thing earlier?
HP:
Great link to the Great Game. It makes me want to dig out the Risk game and re-paint the board. I forget which Tom Clancy novel postulated India and China joining forces to thwart the US in the Indian Ocean, but a US-India alliance to counter China is delicious and makes sense. Google shows roads through Burma to China – how hard to make a solid land route to a naval base there?
Rob:
Never start a land war in Asia. Advice that has worked well for me so far.
@ 31
If you’re comparing hotel bookings with private residential rentals: FAIL
Rob,
For the record, I actually don’t like Garth. I find his writing overly biased and sarcastic and full of homilies that are anything but edifying.
But you’re right: I’m right because he’s right but I’m definitely not liking it.
Anon #46,
I’m not sure what you mean but here’s something interesting for you. I did what I suggested and I called the Delta and I think it was the Fairmont. They are 100% booked during the Olympics. The rep on the phone told me that it was fully booked by VANOC months ago. HUH? Is that what’s supposed to happen? Who is VANOC booking into scores of hotel rooms? Are we paying like $599/night for friends of VANOC? Does VANOC have friends? Who are they? Athletes? Politicians? Foreigners with businesses who have convinced Canadian Gov’t Officials that they’re big shots? I am quite surprised. I thought Mom & Pop Olympic Fan were in those rooms?
WTF?
SenorCaballero/44…
I used to love that game! Hence, Burma? No. Not if you lack sea-power and your ultimate objective is oil/hemispheric domination. If this were a Risk scenario, the preferred option would be linking up with your buddy Iran by first dealing with all of your neighbours ending in “stan”; e.g. you cede the Kazaks to UncleVladimir in exchange for a mutually assured good behaviour pact; then you deliver Kashmir to Pakistan in exchange for similar good conduct promises/neutrality following which you execute a blitzkrieg ‘pincer’ movement on Afghanistan (with help from UncleAhmadinejad’s RevolutionaryGuard)… and bingo, India doesn’t matter and your hegemonic rival’s army is either captive or on the run.
However, this is the 21st Century; so, before you do ‘that’ – you begin with things like this…
[NYT] Google, Citing Cyber Attack, Threatens to Exit China
http://tinyurl.com/ycdzx5l
Which brings us – happily - to CNote’s citation… (SenorCaballero will attest to HP’s startling resemblance to the ManInBlack)…
http://tinyurl.com/yh9negm
How are listings trending this far this week
And sales
?
47 VD
VANOC can simply have a block of rooms that they have made available for people to book. This is not out of the ordinary, as anyone who has ever put a large scale conference on can attest to. That being said, the organization that books a block of rooms is technically on the hook if they do not get used, so there is the potential for VANOC to have some sunk costs.
Some stories from the Olympic trenches…
Had some dealings at Vancouver City Hall today. Believe it or not the city hall will have a skeleton crew as all staff will be “volunteering” at the games. The entire planning department will be on toliet, transit, and crosswalk duty – yes, you will have highly paid city planners standing in front of the port a potties and washrooms telling visitors that they “can go next.” Incredible.
My contacts at several provincial ministries in Victoria have also informed me that they are still asking staff to come man certain pavillions and booths. The catch is that they will get the day off, but will have to pay their own way – travel restrictions are in effect for most civil servants.
A colleague’s wife is a senior official with VANOC is the HR side. She told us that all catering is being outsourced as opposed to using local caterers. Most likely IOC caterers, who follow it around to each Olympic event. So much for stimulating local businesses.
V-Dog:
I guess I’m like you in regard to GT. The funny thing about the internet, I think, is that it gives us access to all kinds of people, or more importantly, their intellects. It makes it challenging to be a know it all. Usually someone else has come up with your analysis before you. I’m grateful to you for providing a concrete exampleof that (and I liked your analysis of it the first time anyway).
HP:
Actually, there is a resemblance. Re: China and Myanmar, curiously, Google shows roads through Burma all the way to China, but they end at the border. No roads in China, apparently!
I think Google is making the right move. I like the idea of a private company rebuking China.
I think China’s got a hard row to hoe based on the link you provided. We haven’t (well, at least I haven’t) been thinking geopolitics for quite a while. Its a refreshing change. I read George Jonas on the weeked and he remarked that 9/11 was no Pearl Harbour. Similar casualties, but 9/11 didn’t materially hamper anyone’s military capabilities (his argument, not mine). From there he argues that terrorists have limited capabilities, and that asymmetric warfare isn’t effective if you trump it (in this case by putting it in its proper place – dont let a faulty bomb be more effective than an effective bomb). Interesting concept (if we forget about combining the audacity of 9/11’s plug and play simplicity with dirty bombs).
http://fishyre.blogspot.com/2010/01/im-back.html#comments
Great post by fish
He also comments that we’ve had a strong start to the week (listings high, sales low)
Are listings and moi continuing to surge higher?
SenorCaballero/51… China, a ‘hard row to hoe’ indeed… Especially when so many senior bureaucrats/managers of state-owned enterprises are apparently absconding – and taking the fortune cookie jar with them. YVR RE ebullience conspiracy theorists will doubtless enjoy the following piece which nicely conflates the ‘AsianHordes’/MoneyLaundering themes… [cheers to Anon/52 for initial link]…
[MalayInsider] China To Stem Exodus of Corrupt Officials
…Noting that the authorities may downplay the statistics to avoid stoking public anger, anti-corruption experts have estimated that at least 10,000 officials have fled China, taking at least US$100 billion in public funds…
http://tinyurl.com/ycmullr
Hi
How R listings vs. sales faring this week?
Calgary among ‘most attractive’ cities
Conference Board lists top cities that are attractive to both Canadian and foreign migrants
These cities have “what migrants are looking for when choosing where to locate,” according to the Conference Board’s second report on the topic.
http://tinyurl.com/yatjp5d
“Four of Vancouver’s suburbs – Richmond, Burnaby, Coquitlam, and Surrey – earned “C” grades, as does nearby Abbotsford”
#50, don’t most international teams bring their own dieticians with them?
58 – Do you think that only athletes are coming? Seriously?
There will be more reps from national governments and corporations and media outlets than athletes, and there will be many many social events that need to be catered…
The next 3 months are going to be so boring……. zzzzzz…….where’s:
Jeff
Ex-Banker
Patriotz
WhyBuy
RJ
VHB
RRR (She probably thinks we’re all losers)
Am I missing anyone?
There are many hotel rooms still available for booking during the Olympic games, you just need to know where to look. Jetset Sports is a private company that specializes in Olympic travel packages. They have an exclusive deal with vanoc to be the only accommodation supplier for the games. Every hotel room in the city is booked, but it is booked by jestset sports.
#58, no I don’t think that only athletes are coming.
OH MY GOD! Kenche. If that’s true. Then WTF?
What has gotten into everyone with this exclusive this, exclusive that BS for the Olympics? Soundz like kickbackz to me. So much of that money is going to be “unaccounted for” after the games. Believe me, I’ve seen this play before.
Maybe VANOC can go on Larry King and talk about how several millions went missing out of a billion dollar budget. Didn’t a minister for Egypt do that just before the Iraq war broke out. I can’t remember the country but I remember laughing my ass off at how happy he was to report that 50 million went missing and how normal that was. No biggie. It’s just gone. Next topic. LOVE IT. Can’t wait to see it from our own officials.
These kind of exclusive deals are often touted as a positive thing. Jetset sports is assuming risk as they have prepaid for all of the rooms and a large number of tickets. They hope to profit by reselling the rooms and tickets at a higher price. VANOC benefits by receiving a guaranteed payment.
From what I have heard, there is much shadiness within the Olympic partners.
Of courses – there’s too much money involved in the Olympics for it to be purely about the sporting events anymore.
VD/63… Actually, billions and billions…. and you can chalk those missing greenbacks up to the cronies of that rootin’, tootin’, snortin’, shootin’, born-again cowboy GeorgeW…. but, Hey! What’s a few billion between palz?
[BBC] BBC uncovers lost Iraq billions
http://tinyurl.com/5zpma4
PS – my spies in the MinistryOfFinance tell me they positively loathe dealing with VANOC…
https://www.cosport.net/v2010/AT_PackagesOverview.asp
if you need a room there are several available.
xoxo
RJ
I demand that you provide us with your most current views on the RE market here in Vancouver – do it now.
THis is what CAD 750k gets you in beautiful Hawaii:
http://honolulu.craigslist.org/oah/reb/1517573330.html
This is what you get for CAD 1.3 million in Hongcouver….this is how much you pay for the privilidge to have Hwy 1 noise and fumes 24hrs/day right in your backyard….
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=8917894
If this is not a bubble, then what is the bubble.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Many thanks to Van Bear for this post!
Here’s what $350K gets you in San Francisco :
http://www.trulia.com/property/photos/1093968645-603-Natoma-St-206-San-Francisco-CA-94103
On par with downtown Vancouver?
OOO!
so far.
Much better weather and taxes!
bid for a condo- lost on the bid today.. . looks like it will sell for at least list price
Hi Rails
Time will tell if you “lost” or not….I lost on a bid on RIM at $120 a year or so ago…today I’m buying it for around 1/2 that price – only time will tell if I “win” or not.
Can ANYONE tell me if listings (net) are growing or shrinking this week? How are the market internals looking?
#72 rails:
what were you thinking?!
buy now and be priced in forever!
Sometimes we need to look past the “financial argument”, recognizing that others do in fact value homeownership. For peace in the household,. sometimes you need to break
Rails #75,
Sometimes we need to look past the “value homeownership” and actually think about the “financial argument” — why would one want to overpay to be a slave to the bank?
Re #69
1.35 M for 21840 ft2 lot (120×182) is $61/ft2 for land 20 min to downtown. Is this unreasonable. Dig a little deeper.
anon 68-
1. i don’t have access to data
2. still think prices are unrealistic
3. curious to see how the town behaves post olympics
4. shocked at all the “For Lease” signs I see everywhere.
5. when i have time I’ll run the multiples comparison between residential and commercial real estate – we might get a situation where buying commercial and renting residential makes more sense.
xoxo
romeo
Kenche,
Can’t wait. If any of you anonymous bloggers want to post unfounded rumours of shadiness, you’ll find a reader right here. I love this stuff.
Rob,
If someone were to post something say un tout petit slanderous about say VANOC, or a person could VANOC or that person sue the poster? How would they find out who they were? Or do they sue you? How does it work online?
Like if I said the head of VANOC had two heads instead of one? Would they have a leg to stand on? Slander-wise? (I guess that depends if I said they were born with one or three legs or the body of a reptile… but you catch the drift of the question).
vomit –
I’m here, just busy with other stuff these days.
Here’s a few notes –
At the peak in winter 2007, properties in Point Grey were going for about $1.2M for a 33′ lot, 1.5M for a 50′ lot. I just took a look at Stuart Bonner’s web page, in the “blog” section he lists the sales prices for previous months. No 33′ lots sold, but a 50′ lot went for $1.4M.
So we’re still $100K below peak, plus throw in 2% annual inflation and we’re $160K below peak, or 10%.
Also, a place over on Drummond that was listed for $18M went for $15.2M. I doubt properties like that move very often, (118 days on the market, but it’s been listed for a couple years, maybe it’s sold in there, maybe just relistings). So the Uberhigh end has another data point.
What is anyone else seeing on the ground?
And is the rest of BC going to pause for the next two months with Vancouver, or are the Kamloopses/Kelownas/Kooteneys/Caribous going to do something — heat up, tank, putz along?
WBWUCR’t'13?
Hey $from@$ia –
Congrats on your 2009 RE prediction — I think you were closer than anyone else.
WBWUCR’t'13?
are they laying the groundwork to be able to claim…’we told you so’?
CIBC warns on housing prices
CIBC World Markets warned this morning that real estate prices could flatline this year and even fall in some markets. Should that happen, there’s a ripple effect through the economy, beyond the obvious hit to the construction sector. “According to the Bank of Canada’s estimates, consumers spend 5.7 cents yearly out of every dollar increase in the value of their homes,” economists Benjamin Tal and Krishen Rangasamy said in a report. “Note that this housing wealth effect is significantly more powerful than the wealth effect associated with rising stock prices. Housing wealth is much more broadly distributed across income levels than stock wealth and its impact on consumer spending is much more immediate.”
Some observers have speculated that Canada’s hot housing market is headed for bubble territory as prices rise and buyers rush for mortgages at low rates. And the Bank of Canada has warned borrowers should not take on more debt than they can handle when interest rates inevitably rise.
#79, slander is slander whether it’s online or not. Being online affords you no protection.
Re: VD 79
I am not going to publish any of the the things that I have heard, but I will say that I wasn’t surprised by any of it, however I am sure that some people would be shocked.
Congrats on your 2009 RE prediction — I think you were closer than anyone else.
WBWUCR’t’13?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Just what are you talking about? Care to fully explain WBWUCR?
WhyBuy/80… In the Okanagan (absent a highly unlikely and startling improvement in the personal finances of Albertans) the market is essentially tanking… You would be astonished at the number of vacant/languishing residential new-builds with signage promoting asking prices “well below BC assessment”… This is, I believe, an accelerating trend – connected to the real vs. ’shadow’ and/or speculative economy – in all BC provincial RE markets that are dependent upon/driven by autochtonous earned income… (which is just a fancy way of saying locals who rely upon earnings from ‘conventional’ employment).
Indeed, in the topsy-turvy world of the ‘new normal’ – I would even go so far as to say that capital markets and unemployment have switched places as leading/lagging economic indicators/predictors… Here’s an interesting OpEd piece from small-town America/California in that vein… (PS – Lompoc is a cool Cali community near Vandenberg AFB – and for the best Mexican cuisine, HP highly recommends the CostaBrava on Ocean Avenue)…
[LompocRecord] Longer, deeper recession looms
http://tinyurl.com/y8uzbtl
RE: Okanagan
My parents have been looking up in the area for over a year now, in every community, and there apparently have been minimal price adjustments while listings have not exactly exploded.
People are apparently being “stubborn” with their listing prices, despite high DOM, and if price adjustments are taking place they might be 50k off 150-200k overvalued places.
Admittedly, my parents are looking for 5-10 acres of horse land with a 2500-3000 sq ft home (built within the last 10 years), so their search parameters are quite narrow.
Just for fun I plotted the income/price ratio for Vancouver RE between 1977 and 2006 (cause that’s my kind of fun). Interesting that prior to about 1988, the ratio was steady around 4 (with a spike in ‘81-82) but has been generally increasing ever since with highs around 10 in 1995 and 2006 and dips in 1991 and 2001 around 6.
So what’s driving this increasing trend? I found a chart showing 5 year mortgage rates over that period and there is a decreasing trend over that time (pushing prices higher). I plotted the correlation and it’s pretty good. Is it this straightforward? I’m sure there must be more factors at play here. Now that rates have bottomed, is this the end of ratio increases? I wonder what the new ‘accepted’ price/income ratio is in this new world, clearly it’s not 3 or 4 as sometimes claimed. Based on the chart, I’m thinking somewhere between 6 and 8, which would still be a significant drop from today’s prices (~40%). Unless of course we run out of land, then all bets are off
Post 157 from RC on the last thread…
Based on the length of this post, now I KNOW that the market is cooling : )
Yes, because Rob is the type to hide in the basement and cry because the market is slowing. Maybe he’s busy sellin’ houses and hasn’t a moment to post.
RE 69… That lot in Burnaby is purely land value so you can’t compare it to Hawaii. You could probably put 15,000 to 20,000 ft2 of real estate on the lot. At a conservative $400 /ft2 for Burnaby, that could be $6 to $8 million of revenue. Maybe the Hawaii property could be purchased with the profits.
RJ
Do you think the surge in listings/moi is indicative of a shift in the market?
anon 92
i don’t know….. no access to data and too busy right now.
based on my limited exposure the market feels weaker. . . like i said, i’m really interested to see how this market behaves post olympics.
xoxo
romeo
@50 – I can confirm BTS Catering (http://tinyurl.com/y94em9j) is in town for the Olympics. Forget the local guys.
I was in Torino. Their food is shite. Arggh.