January 31 Stats Update
I was away this weekend for a pond hockey tournament, and while some may say that AGW is a hoax, I can attest to the fact that it was barely warm enough to freeze the outdoor rink this year. Last year it was at least -20 when we played. Draw your own conclusions.
Inventory for REBGV and FVREB attached and detached was 16,129, of which 5,059, or 31.37%, were over 90s. For the REBGV the numbers were 10,090, 3,030 and 30.03%. For the FVREB the numbers were 6,039, 2,029 and 33.6%.
REBGV detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,284 new listings, 299 price changes, and 687 sales for a sell/list of 53.5%.
10,090/(687*4.25) = 3.46 MOI.
FVREB detached and attached numbers for last week were 712 new listings, 170 price changes, and 310 sales for a sell/list of 43.54%.
6,039/(310 *4.25)= 4.58 MOI.
Combined detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,996 new listings, 469 price changes, and 997 sales. Sell/list was 49.95%.
16,129/(997*4.25) = 3.8 MOI.
First chart is REBGV, second if FVREB, third is combined. All stats courtesy of the REBGV, and while every effort has been made to ensure their accuracy, the REBGV assumes no responsibility for them.
Rob’s Report Generator
Data for File: SalesJanuary312010REBGV.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 687 | $647,070.50 | $635,735.60 | -$11,334.90 | -1.47% | 41 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 439 | $481,727.21 | $473,324.33 | -$8,402.88 | -1.58% | 38 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 244 | $940,968.39 | $924,381.05 | -$16,587.34 | -1.27% | 46 |
Data for File: SalesJanuary312010FVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 310 | $450,451.79 | $438,005.43 | -$12,446.36 | -2.55% | 57 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 143 | $268,344.09 | $262,496.85 | -$5,847.24 | -2.41% | 51 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 153 | $630,934.32 | $611,978.97 | -$18,955.35 | -2.67% | 59 |
Data for File: SalesJanuary312010REBGVFVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 997 | $585,935.29 | $574,254.80 | -$11,680.49 | -1.81% | 46 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 582 | $429,298.02 | $421,523.08 | -$7,774.95 | -1.79% | 41 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 397 | $821,484.23 | $803,984.28 | -$17,499.95 | -1.81% | 51 |
155 comments
MOI down…
In Vancouver more listings mean more sales,weekly sales and sell list is showing constant improvement.Listings must hit the market first then hungry buyers follow the listings at two weeks of distance that increase the heat in market begining January till September.
Expect more listings to hit the market to increase the sales level and yeah, some early birds bears disappeared.
Hello?
i 10
Went to a couple open houses, told at one house numeous bids have been offered already! The Agent told me he was swamped….. maybe it will slow down during the games, but not at this pace!
” I can attest to the fact that it was barely warm enough to freeze the outdoor rink this year. Last year it was at least -20 when we played. Draw your own conclusions.”
Rob, you know better to say things like this. That is the same as saying “holly crap it is the coldest winter in 14 years the world is cooling!”
A single day in a single location over a 1 year span means squat. You mid as well post hourly RE stats and we can try to draw conclusions from that.
If the world really is warming at 15 degrees a year then there really isnt any point in helping the people in Haiti. The ocean will be boiling there in a matter of years. (too far with the Haiti thing? I do think we should help them I was just being a smartass)
Anyway, sell list still pretty low, though improving. It will be interesting to see if the pace of these listings continues after the olympics.
Great job VD, thanks. I would add to that (although you may have this covered off in there) that if/as interest rates rise, the whole fundamental argument gets a boost with every basis point increase.
China is cooling – I wonder (just a rambling thought) if we’ll see an ala ‘07/-8 with Asia owners turning to sellers, and hitting the bid aggressively.
What’s that about the bigger they are the harder they….
Bear points,
1. Death by a thousand tax cuts. Not tax cuts but slices off your pay cheque from the tax man. First there’s HST. Then there’s the Provincial, Federal and Municipal governments needing to fill the troughs. Less money at the end of the month, means more careful study of how far one can take this mortgage thing–even when rates are low.
2. Approaching the affordability ceiling
3. Post-Olympic haze shows that foreign buyers aren’t all that interested in Vancouver. Most of the rush to buy was induced by panicky buyers thinking foreigners are pricing them out.
4. Too close to home! Outlying areas: Fraser Valley, etc., may decline in earnest, feeding into sentiment that Vancouver might be next.
5. Reality in the Realm of Rents. As more FTBs and others move out of their rental units to purchase their new condos & homes at unbeatable low interest rates, many units sit empty. It may take months but landlords will either have to adjust to renting for just part of the year to people willing to pay their price, lower rents, or add the unit to the pile of for sale inventory on the market. More talk in the media of price/rent ratios being an important consideration when buying an investment property.
6. The beginnings of a double-dip recession. It’s an outlier but that alone would do the trick.
7. Cutbacks in government jobs. The Liberals negotiated a good chunk of union contracts to expire in 2010/2011. Now they’ve got to go back to the table (or not). You can be sure the unions will hit the press with a barrage of bad news (true or false, doesn’t matter). This can contribute to negative sentiment, especially real cutbacks and real job cuts.
8. A cool analysis that after 8 years of hype, expansion, building and preening, no new major head offices exist in Vancouver. I repeat, no new major companies have expanded or moved here to The Best Place on Earth. Therefore the jobs market will look very much the way it did in 2001, which is quite upsetting those having to pay for this into the next decade (or two). Those = us.
Howzat?
“Expect more listings to hit the market to increase the sales level ”
increased supply = increased demand?
all hockey ponds are local and
Vancouver is not immune to gravity……
the current market is like kiting checks
works beautifully until it stops……..
Davers…must agree with you regarding Rob’s evidence of AGW. When we had three feet of snow on the ground a year ago, you didn’t here people running around stating that the next ice age was coming. There is a distinction between weather and climate.
ya, more For Sale signs and Open Houses everywhere will spur an increase in demand – higher supply generally does that – come on!
What’s this global warming stuff ?! Don’tyou remember in the 1080s they told us there was new ice age on the way ! Anyone remember that ? It made the front cover of Time and Newsweek !
We have short memories…I guess “it’s different this time”, right ?
Officially the warmest ever January in Vancouver on record, according to whichever news report I watched last night. Beating the previous record holders (all within the last couple of decades) by a whole degree.
@9 anon:
You must be extremely old and have a fantastic memory if you can remember back to the 1080s.
Consumer debt loads are the new concern
The optimism that consumers felt heading into this year was short-lived, and has been overcome by nagging concerns over their debt loads.
“Consumer bankruptcies have risen significantly over the past year, and they will continue to rise. Clearly, some people are in over their heads, and more will get into trouble when interest rates rise.”— CIBC economist Benjamin Tal
http://tinyurl.com/yb8qh2g
BS, did you hear the news this morning about how BC (new RBC survey) residents most anxious about economy, job security, debt.
how this jives with our hot RE market is beyond me.
“A cool analysis that after 8 years of hype, expansion, building and preening, no new major head offices exist in Vancouver. I repeat, no new major companies have expanded or moved here to The Best Place on Earth.”
Digital Domain (Kits, 2009)
Sony Imageworks (Yaletown, spring 2010)
Pixar (unsure of current status, somewhere downtown)
The Moving Picture Company (Yaletown, 2007)
But Vancouver has no industry except tourists and RE, right? Right?
No industry? Along with RE and tourism, the film industry has also been a staple, albeit a minor one, in Vancouver for many years…
Yup, Digital Domain has a branch in Vancouver, but the majority of its 500 employees are still located in California. Same thing with Imageworks. Of course, Imageworks prefers to outsource to their India “branch” as its much cheaper.
Keep in mind, there is a major difference between a “branch office” and a “headquarters”
And I guess you have failed to note that new production is shifting to Ontario because of the larger and more comprehensive number of tax credits, while the strong CDN continues to dissuade US film companies from shooting here. Yes, indeed, a flourishing industry in this economic wasteland we call BC…
Yes, I know the difference between a headquarters and a branch office. The original poster said that nobody had “expanded” to Vancouver, which is incorrect. I’m also aware of the differences in size between the Vancouver offices and their main studio, and the types of work that these places generally outsource to India. I believe the future of the BC tax credit is still the subject of ongoing discussion, too.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/vancouver-to-lead-economic-growth-conference-board-of-canada-says/article1445929/
“Vancouver is expected to top economic growth among Canadian cities this year, the Conference Board of Canada predicted Wednesday. The boost from spending related to the 2010 Winter Olympics is a chief reason, but a rebound in housing construction and consumer spending will also spur growth, the report said.
The city is expected to tally economic growth of 4.5 per cent this year, the biggest expansion among all 27 cities in the report’s metropolitan outlook. It’s a reversal for the city that saw a 1.8-per-cent contraction last year amid factory and construction woes.”
Contemporary Security has just hired 8,000 people here in Vancouver……
“but a rebound in housing construction”……..
constructing pressboard palaces in exchange
for long term bank indebtedness is the epitome of
circular logic and doomed to failure……
FTB
That Conference Board report has been ripped to shreds many times – just check out their prior predictions to see how accurate they have been
Take a look at the Sauder School analysis of the Olympic benefits….nothing there except the oh so tangible “feel good factor”
In the mid-2000s the games were originally slated to cost a pittance of $660m and bring in a profit of $10bn. This ludicrous projection was made before the market crash – an event that the Vancouver’s Olympic committee failed to anticipate.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/jan/31/vancouver-winter-olympics-police
More woes on our glorious Olympic front
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/cbc/100201/canada/canada_britishcolumbia_bc_olympic_cruise_ship_hotel_problems_1
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/02/01/nypost-report-fortress-intrwest.html
You talk about articles being “ripped to shreds” then post that Guardian nonsense? I’ve never seen such a poor piece of journalism. Read the comments that have been made there. This author is obviously anti-Olympics, judging by their final paragraph. I quite like this bit, too:
“With a police officer on every corner and military helicopters buzzing overhead, Vancouver looks more like post-war Berlin than an Olympic wonderland. Whole sections of the city are off-limits, scores of roads have been shut down, small businesses have been told to close shop and citizens have been instructed to either leave the city or stay indoors to make way for the projected influx of 300,000 visitors.”
People have been told to leave the city of stay indoors? Post-war Berlin? Police officer on every corner, and helicopters buzzing constantly overhead? What a crock. I wouldn’t be surprised if this “journalist” wasn’t even in the city yet.
And you think that VANOC should have anticapted the market crash when nobody else in the world did? Good grief.
I really hope all the Olympic kill-joys DO leave town, their constant whining is starting to get annoying.
MOI a pittance and heading down. Whose the dutz now? 50% sell/list and climbing… and that’ll be into the Olympics. It’ll go up from here with absolutely no inventory. Every piece of crap will sell, diminishing inventory like mad. And please don’t tell me inventory is piling on unless we add 10,000+ more listings this week, there’s no point in even lying to yourself that a bear market is around the corner. What’s going to cause it before July. And prices could rise 10% before then.
Also Anon,
The fundamentals argument won’t advance point by point with interest rate rise because interest rates won’t move point by point. They’ll move in fractions of a point causing people to what… switch from dinner at C restaurant to making fish at home in order to meet their mortgage payment? If, that! Ain’t nothing major gonna happen until people have to pay around 6% on their mortgages. Will that even come to pass in the next 2 years? No one knows.
FTB,
I agree. That journalist is a freak. He probably went straight to Commercial Drive to write up that piece. However, his numbers… 6 Billion in cost, he backs up with an interesting Tyee piece that lumps the Convention Centre, Sea-to-Sky, RAV line expenses together with all core Olympic infrastructure.
I’m thinking that those projects are something we’re going to have to pay for, at the same time as everything Olympic. Taken together with all the other headlines (hotel vacancies, tickets not selling, Ottawa being asked to kick in 90m or face off with Fortress in court, John Furlong admitting the Olympics won’t make money), that this thing ain’t looking like a success. However, just like everything else in Vancouver, maybe the Olympic Village real estate sells and the locals get not much out of it except for a skating rink and a shorter drive to Whistler. Plus taxes for 30 years.
‘Take a look at the Sauder School analysis of the Olympic benefits….nothing there except the oh so tangible “feel good factor”’
You mean this?
http://www.publicaffairs.ubc.ca/2010/01/25/no-evidence-of-a-post-olympics-boom-or-bust-for-host-city-real-estate-prices-ubc-study/
.. where they say :
“We do not find support for the argument of host city backers that the Olympics delivers positive economic benefits, nor of the arguments made by opponents that there is some post-Olympic bust”
So perhaps no benefits, but I notice you cherry-picked that part from a statement which says there’s no bust either.
Olympic Village sells to foreign buyers as a play home. Locals get higher taxes and higher home prices. It’s freakin’ possible, Anon.
However FTB,
We saw a mugging downtown and there were four officers on the block. They came from the other 4 corners to jump the guy. And I’ve seen what look like Stealth frikin’ bombers overhead. What the feck are those for? Osama? He don’t ski.
VD
Check out yattermatters for average detached price drop on east side of $50,000 for January.
Square that circle my friend.
That said, the 53% sell/list is a strong week (after 3 bad ones), so all is still in question – except for fundamentals.
oh well, it will come when it does. let the party begin.
And you think that VANOC should have anticapted the market crash when nobody else in the world did? Good grief.
Please, you are setting yourself up for a fall when you are allowed to, and do, provide bid quotes in 2002 dollars as opposed to projecting what inflation adjusted costs will be in 2010. Projecting a $10 billion profit was just a joke, as it would take a 2 minute analysis of previous Olympics to determine that they are not revenue generators. And lets not forget with dispensing with the sound financial principle of holding a contingency fund. Nope, lets just recite “yes we can” and hope for the best….
I love this city! Our reaction to the games in recent weeks is why everyone thinks we are in la la land and have soggy brain syndrome. For 8 years, everyone was hyping the games and was so happy to have them come. And then the four weeks before the event, they turn on them. Ah, to be a bandwagon fickle Vancouverite.
It just goes to show you how public opinion can be swayed in a moment in this city, which is especially dangerous in a bubble driven by psychology….
Personally, I plan to walk around with my “Nobody Cares 2010″ shirt rather than flee the city…
NC
I really really really really wonder WHAT folk in this city will have to look forward to in a month….
debt
rising interest rates
olympic related layoffs
slowing restaurants/hotels (I know folk at hotels who’s hours have been cut (obviously not for this month) due to the general slowdown in tourism, and whistler has been hammered
vd is just a frustrated dutz, like moi, but it appears that lots of clouds are on the horizon….
wonder if listings will build or decline this week – well, we always have that – another week of fresh data to look fwd to!
FTB 29
The guy who wrote that article lives in Vancouver, but seems like a total moron. There are not really off limit sections of the city, a couple places where they are setting stuff up, which seems reasonable. As someone who lives here I feel more of a pull to stay and go to events rather than to leave. Where he got that bit of info from (other than his own ass) is beyond me. Im hoping all the kill joys leave too because even though I think it is a huge waste of money and shouldnt have happened, I am still going to try to enjoy them as I think they could be a lot of fun.
VD24,
I live kinda by commercial drive, please dont lump us all together as anti olympic hipsters. I may not support the olympics and ride a longboard…. wait what was I talking about?
Thank you CheckYourFacts…. but you forgot to mention D.A.V.E. (which is the only reason the aforementioned branch-plant, digital sweat-shops are in YVR)….
http://tinyurl.com/ybpkqhd
FTB… me thinks thou doth protest too much…. The Guardian piece was obviously written with a hyperbolic slant (wink wink/nudge nudge – it’s a style thing)… but apart from that – there wasn’t anything factually wrong with the piece, was there?… more to the point, it makes for a welcome/refreshing juxtaposition to the hackneyed boosterism and treacle masquerading as ‘journalism’ that YVR denizens have had been force-fed on all things Olympic… Oh yeah, that’s right – both YVR rags are in receivership/on the auction block… And CTV/Globe is so strapped they’re crowdsourcing their coverage….
Perhaps they should hire Mr. Haddow?
http://tinyurl.com/ycqwtue
PS – VD, Olympic junkets to Commercial Drive for Guardian hacks??? Fugad ’bout it… The Guardian is notoriously cheap, ergo: they went with local talent… in this case Douglas Haddow… first link is a profile…. second is his old blog… (his new blog is apparently ‘down’ – churlish VANOC denial of service attack or high-traffic server failure?)…
http://tinyurl.com/y9faxmo
http://tinyurl.com/6fgqsn
Im hoping all the kill joys leave too because even though I think it is a huge waste of money and shouldnt have happened, I am still going to try to enjoy them as I think they could be a lot of fun.
I really hope all the Olympic kill-joys DO leave town, their constant whining is starting to get annoying.
Ah, to wish all those pesky critical thinkers leave their city when there is fun to be had. I think that is a solid policy. Whenever someone has a dissenting opinion, lets tell them to leave the city. A G-7 summit shows up, and you disagree, please leave the city. A Chinese delegation shows up with the prospect of enhanced trade ties, Tibetans please leave the city. Real estate prices too high, please leave the city (hmmm….that sounds like something a bull would say)
Too funny…
Ah, to call yourself a “critical thinker” and imply that anybody who intends to have a good time during the Olympics doesn’t have a clue…. Too funny.
WOW, YOU’RE BEING THICK!
IT’S PRETTY EASY TO CIRCLE THAT SQUARE OR SQUARE THAT CIRCLE OR WHATEVER OTHER CLICHE YOU’D LIKE TO ASSIGN TO A LOW VOLUME SALES MONTH–IT’S JANUARY. IT’S THE SAME AS EVERY OTHER DECEMBER/JANUARY PERIOD OUT THERE. YOU DON’T LOOK AT IT OR JUDGE IT BECAUSE IT’S JANUARY.
AND IF YOU WANTED TO JUDGE THIS ONE, IT’S SHIT IN YOUR PANTS TIME BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE LEAVING THEIR HOMES, CROSSING THE STREETS, GOING INTO OPEN HOUSES AND A SCHWAK OF THEM ARE BIDDING ABOVE ASKING RIGHT BEFORE THE OLYMPICS MAYHEM AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO RIGHT THROUGH THE OLYMPICS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SHEESH!
35, yes, but how has MOI changed during the last hour?
32
Did you even read what I said? I dont think we should be having these olympics, if I could have voted (I lived in Burnaby and was 16 at the time) I would have voted No.
But since they are happening I really see no point in complaining. The money is spent and they will never happen again in Vancouver in our lifetime no matter how well/poorly they go. Since I (along with all of you folks) am paying for this huge party I am going to try to enjoy it.
I have still yet to hear a decent explaination of what anyone protesting the olympics intends to accomplish. It is not a political summit, it’s a sporting event. A damn expensive one I will admit, but ruining it will not solve any of the problems that make you opposed to it in the first place.
Why no go whine at a canucks game because the players make too much money? You will probably accomplish about as much as you would protesting the olympics.
If you have a better solution at this point in time I would love to hear it, but if you dont I am just going to try and have a good time. What a terrible person I must be to actually try and have fun at a big party.
VD
Havent seen a post in all caps for a while on this blog, he finally got on your last nerve?
Ah, to actually read one’s post without putting words into one’s mouth…priceless
A quick read of the post, and it is pretty clear that I never labelled myself as a critical thinker, although I will run with that label.
My point was that people are entitled to their opposing views in our fair nation, and simply because you may find someone’s views as whiny or offessive is no reason to hope or wish that they leave the city.
If you really want to head down that slippery slope, then I think that pro-Olympics people should leave the city because I am tired of listening to Olympic boosterism and giggles from people telling me how much fun it is going to be. And I think that they should really leave the city when they start to complain about rising taxes or cuts in the provision of services after they had fun at the event….
http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/its-vancouver-of-course/comment-page-1/#comment-26201
for east/west side daily sell/list, check out Larry’s right hand sidebar…
41/87= less than 50%….just for these areas (combined).
fyi….VD, where are all the buyers my dutzy friend! (just kidding)
Wow, VANOC’s website using music from a Nazi composer. Somehow that just seems so right.
And FTBoner, I will NOT leave town just so you and the rest of your cheerleaders can enjoy your multi-billion dollar circle jerk in peace.
I will be right here every day giving my middle finger to the olympics and to all of you, and to Coke, and McDonalds, and Royal Bank and all the other official sponsors each and every step of the way.
37
Typical answer I get everytime I ask what the point of protesting is.
“I have the right to protest and I will do it until I am blue in the mouth”
Yes, you do have the right. I didnt ask if you had the right to do it, I asked what you planned to accomplish.
And I meant that with regard to the olympics only. Protesting is very important but in this situation I dont see the point.
#39,
you are a miserable due, lighten up. it is not that bad the in basement. your welfare cheque is not enough to cover your meth?
Right davers, no point in complaining. Since it’s going to happen anyway we should just get on board and cheer.
It’s like, if you’re about to raped you should just lie back and enjoy it.
VD
While the Open Houses were packed with lookey loos (like you), sellers appear to be busy meeting with their realtors to get their listings up ASAP.
Listings are growing. Oh, I know all about the seasonality stuff, and I don’t dismiss your views…I’m just saying…what if (we’ll see) the listings keep growing and the sales…don’t…it could be mayhem, starting in 30-60 days. Complete and utter panicked rush for the exits. FTB’s single purchase will not be enough to stem the slide.
just sayin…
http://www.vancouversun.com/travel/Olympic+cruise+ship+floating+hotel+plan+could+sunk/2509628/story.html
imagine having paid thirteen hundred bucks and now to have rooms going for a couple hun…and not even full – VD, what gives?
i truly wonder how they are keeping snow up at cypress…slush i understand, but snow….man o’ man, the weather is WARM…..kinda odd, no?
but, perhaps we’ll rain ourselves out and be blessed with glorious sunshine for two weeks…we are due….
holy crap, Feb 1 and the for rent listings on the west side have just exploded.
lots of fully furnished places…does anyone think fools bought these to rent for the warmlympics and are now stuck wondering what to do?
any thoughts?
larry’s sell/list looked not great today…let’s see what tomorrow brings…
FTB just buy a place. Sell/list is getting anemic again. Shop till you drop.
i truly wonder how they are keeping snow up at cypress
straw bales + artificial snow = yellow snow!
would you ski in it?
Unbelievable. I thought they figured out looong ago (like during the Great Depression) that this doesn’t work … Canadian gov’t paying hog farmers to not produce hogs
http://tinyurl.com/yjpn2ya
Moi? A looky-loo? I’m a Buyer on the Verge Who Never Pulls the Trigger. Much more frustrating for agents, I can assure you.
WoW, please explain to me how listings are going up if MOI is going down? Maybe I’m a Super Dutz. I don’t get it. How can listings coming on board (100% normal for this time of year, by the way, otherwise it’d be December all the way into July) and MOI go down. Explain. Explain. Explain.
And why do you quote Larry’s stats of 50% sell lists and ask where are all the buyers when you’ve just answered it by posting Larry’s stats of 50%. It was like 30% 1st week of Jan and now 50%. They’re there hiding behind that giant, translucent sign that says buyers are standing right here!!! OK. If the sell/list stays at 50% for the next 3 months, yer onto something. But if it don’t, which it won’t, then what’s yer point?
And tell me one more thing. Do you ever see your wife standing behind doors with a knife in her hand practicing strike moves? Has she been watching a lot of CSI and Nancy Grace? Do you find your mailbox stuffed with mailers from insurance companies?
gotta luv the spring olympics!
from today’s press:
Why interest rates matter
Two days before the release of its Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada announced that it would maintain its overnight rate target at 0.25 per cent and reiterated its conditional commitment to maintaining the rate at that level until at least the end of the second quarter.
However, the economy’s recent strength has some economists thinking the central bank may act sooner. “We are wondering whether the bank has paid enough attention to the degree at which Canada’s job market has performed better than America’s,” says Yannick Desnoyers, assistant chief economist at National Bank Financial. Desnoyers worked at the Bank of Canada for several years before taking on his current gig, and thus has special insight into its inner workings. He believes the central bank could begin monetary tightening as early as April.
haha VD, that gave me a chuckle….yes, I have seen her do that!
41/87 is not 50%…
MOI – that is for the week, not the month…we had a strong week of sales, and 4.25 times that level gives low moi…smothing it out with a four week average shows it dropping – hard.
but, let’s see what tomorrow brings…night night my fellow lookey loo!
Best place on Meth:
Ahh yes comparing the olympics to rape, good counterpoint.
I have also heard people compare the Olympics to Nazi Germany, and I cant decide which one is more offensive. One was responsible for the brutal murder for millions and the other is one of the worst things a human can do to another human.
Yep I totally agree with you now. I am going to start my signs right now.
Should I make a swastika = olympic rings picture or something along the lines of “they wasted money this is just like rape!”?
They are both so productive I really cant decide.
What is the 4.25 factor for in calculating MOI. Why not 4?
capitulate VD. please. we are all waiting.
Seem to be a lot of bitter losers here who weren’t able to get any tickets…
Davers seems to have the best attitude. What good is protesting going to do, except make Vancouverites look like a bunch of miserable whiners? The money has been spent, the games will go ahead – with or without the permission of the naysayers. Perhaps Critical Mass intends to ride his bike very slowly around downtown with all his little buddies. That’ll surely help make whatever point it is that he’s struggling to communicate.
Rob’s calculation is incorrect. MOI=listings at end of month/sales for the month.
Rob is using weekly sales which is sort of okay, but it should be adjusted by a factor of 4. Rob uses 4.25 to make the numbers look better. There is no good reason to do this except to sugar coat. You can’t handle the truth. We need a few good men.
I bet your wife has been heard muttering that very thing!!!
FTBoner,
That’s exactly what I want, for Vancouver to be embarrassed beyond belief by the failure of these games.
Got a problem with that?
I think rob uses monthly data, as in his sales numbers are sales for the whole month. I could be wrong, but that is my impression.
Anyway for calculating MOI you gotta consider that the future months have different amounts of days. So…
365 days / 12 months = 30.4166666 days per month
30.4166666 / 7 = 4.345 weeks / month on average.
Really his numbers make MOI slightly higher than it should be.
I just did all of this so I could be missing something, but thats the way I would do it.
Rob any reason for picking 4.25? I always assumed that the calculations I just did would come up with 4.25 or very close. Just a good looking number?
>>>I have also heard people compare the Olympics to Nazi Germany, and I cant decide which one is more offensive. One was responsible for the brutal murder for millions and the other is one of the worst things a human can do to another human.<<<
Looks like you can’t tell the difference either, cheerleader.
Meth,
OK in your best case scenario what will the olympics be like and how will this benifit people?
I hope they are a success, there are no riots, all the businesses in town make lots of money, no one gets hurt and, heaven forbid, these things dont lose millions of dollars.
What is so bad about any of that?
If you, like, visit the Switzerland Olympic do-hickey do you get free chocolate or are you supposed to pay for it? What’s in it for me to go from booth to booth? What do I get?
shoot me, I dont get it.
HOW ON EARTH it matters if robs multiply with 4.3 4.5 or 4 ?
Like, if he multiplies with 4, the prices will go down(up) ?
So, anyone going to any Olympic games? Curling? Obscure countries hockey?
Going to show the athletes some love and cheer for Austria and Finland?
I don’t live in the Lower Mainland, otherwise I’d go to a few obscure ones — probably a lot more interesting to see the folks who have put their whole life into the game and still aren’t medal candidates anyway — too much hype with the folks that might actually win or other events that will be on int’l TV.
WBWUCR’t'13?
el nino in full tilt….sorry, but this year is part of the cyclical period…its all about the sloshing effect at the equatorial region….water temps are currently warmer in the eastern Pacific which always brings milder wetter weather to our neck of the woods…
months ago I e-mailed Mark Madryga about this and he was fully aware of it as was VANOC….guess what? it played out as perfectly as it always does every 7 or so years
68 is me
Well, as our conversation has predictably turned to all things Olympic… I offer the following Olympic sized irony ‘for your consideration’ (sorry, couldn’t resist – it is Oscar season after all…
)
Notwithstanding that NORAD’s Cheyenne Mountain command/control centre, the USAF Academy and the US Olympic Committee are all headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colorado - ’hard times’ abound…
[DenverPost] Colorado Springs Cuts Into Services Considered Basic By Many
http://tinyurl.com/ydwlmyn
http://tinyurl.com/y9gz74q
Thematically related, the next offering is the NYT’s take on the Yanqui budget (if you make it to the end of this piece, you may well enjoy the passing reference to Stein’s Law)…
[NYT] Huge Deficits May Alter U.S. Politics and Global Power
http://tinyurl.com/yhj9nzq
And there it is…
Last up, something for VD and other creatives…
[NYT] Magnum, An Era Ends
http://tinyurl.com/yklluyj
“That’s exactly what I want, for Vancouver to be embarrassed beyond belief by the failure of these games.” — That’s pathetic.
Aftertthought… normally HP ignores ThomasFriedman… but his weekend NYT OpEd is simply too tasty not to share here…
[NYT] Never Heard That Before
http://tinyurl.com/y8gn6ha
cyprus is having 150 trucks ship snow from a mountain 2 hours away “just in case”….you can just hear the cha -chings adding up…yah Olympics
davers, your living in a dream world. its like wanting world peace, its all great but aint going to happen.
74
So I should accept that nothing will ever work out and just kill myself?
But we arent talking about my view on the world we are talking about the olympics. I still dont hear solid reason to piss and moan for 2 weeks.
I have 2 choices, complain or try and have fun. I dont see the point in bitching because it wont accomplish anything. So that leaves me with try and have fun. I dont know about you but I think I would enjoy life a whole lot more if I just tried to find the fun in things.
Now I know you are going to try and make a comparison to something completly different, but that isnt what we are talking about. Theres a big party coming to town, you can either grab a beer and try to make some friends or cry in the corner.
#61 #61
the only embarrassement for vancouver is if you are around.
downtown looks cool right now, definitely dressed up for a party.
i will enjoy it, but I think the hangover is coming.
VD and FTB, things are slowing out there, check out yesterday’s sell/list!:)
just kidding.
62, at least you’re honest in your childishness.
67, you’re absolutely right. So long as you’re always comparing Rob’s MOI figures against Rob’s MOI figures then it really doesn’t matter that much.
ok, go grab a beer now and cry on the corner later
most people in vancouver seem to be like the grasshopper, we’ll see how they’ll be in the coming years
81
Good one! Though I am not sure how to cry ON a corner, unless you mean a street corner….
Normally I dont point out typos (I make them all the time) but when you are trying to argue like a 7 year old there wasnt really much for me to respond to.
67, 80
Yeah, you are right it could be any number you want, as long as it’s the same one it really doesnt matter.
HP:
Good call on Friedman. Competent writer, and interesting subject matter, but he’s getting tired. I find it interesting that he actually thinks that if the Republicans would take one for the team then Obama could accomplish the change that we can all believe in. The fact is that he promised everyone everything (I’ll end the war, I’ll fight the war, I’ll tax the rich (mind you, $250k/year is “middle class”, etc., etc.). You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. The chickens are coming home to roost. Running against the arguably most unpopular president in living memory, and going against a running mate like Sarah Palin, he still failed to get a super-majority. Most of the readers of this blog live in Canada We’re governed by a truly professional politician (look at Harper’s record – knocked off Manning, Day, MacKay, Martin and Dion, and he’s still plowing ahead, uphill most of the time, and his worst enemy remains only himself). We have to be willfully blind to buy into the idea that the golden boy annointed by Oprah is the real thing. Unless he makes a huge change he’s doomed to be Carter because he can’t practice politics competently, and that, despite Tom Friedman’s feelings about the Republicans, is Obama’s problem.
I also like your take on the Guardian story. When I first ran across those guys they made me apoplectic, but that’s kind of like getting mad at dogs because they chase cats. They are what they are, and once that’s recognized they’re much easier to appreciate.
Whybuy:
I’m going to hockey. Are there other events? What for?
Davers:
Traditionally you use 4.25 weeks per month to calculate mortgage periods, but based on the numbers you are right. 52 weeks/12 months is 4.33.
Best Place on Meth:
“That’s exactly what I want, for Vancouver to be embarrassed beyond belief by the failure of these games.”
We all need goals. How do you define “failure of these games”? Can you provide a short (less than 10 sentence) and cogent answer? (Its not a yes or no question!)
#60:
That’s an ironic choice of names. How’d you do in grade 10 math anyway? If I divide a month into weeks I get more than 4 weeks. If I multiply sales by that number instead of 4.25, MOI drops. Back to school for you!
observation from my interest area:
a lot of houses that were sold last spring are coming back to market with profit margin of 15% -20%. As much as I wish to accept this as normal market forces in work, the logic is saying that the market was driven (obviously) by speculators.
What can I say….
HOLA, SUCKERS
For VD:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/pool-of-greater-housing-fools-in.html
no response necessary, enjoy your beer!
Thanks Asa… am reading now with a nice cuppa tea!
What good is protesting going to do, except make Vancouverites look like a bunch of miserable whiners?
It appears simple concepts like raising political awareness and the protection of freedom of speech and assembly are too complex for our younger posters here.
Their fun filled minds are unable to grasp the concept that opposition and political protest are awareness raising exercises, which might, just might, impact how our city operates in the future, how the province addresses social issues, how our senior levels of government interpret our rights and freedoms in future events, or how the next Olympics is conducted.
I know that is hard to understand, and that it is much easier to simply adopt the fatalistic attitude of “oh well, its here, we paid for it, lets have fun.” Clearly, people need a history lessen as to why this country’s forefathers fought and died. I can assure you it was not to have these fundamental rights trounced for an amateur athletic event of all things. Maybe they should create a history pavilion alongside the DTES pavilion, so FTBuyer and he emo grad school friends can get schooled as to why such serious concepts as the freedom of expression where bought with the lives of over our soldiers.
Seem to be a lot of bitter losers here who weren’t able to get any tickets…
Personally, I will be in Whistler for the second weekend of the festivities while I am betting that you will have some cheap tickets to a third rate event and will be trolling all the free events. I will enjoy the games and festivities, all the while providing my moral support to those individuals that choose to exercise their fundamental right to protest in Vancouver.
You see young’un, you can still have fun and support our basic Canadian rights and freedoms without resorting to telling or hoping for people to leave the city when they don’t agree with your views.
What good is protesting going to do, except make Vancouverites look like a bunch of miserable whiners?
It appears simple concepts like raising political awareness and the protection of freedom of speech and assembly are too complex for our younger posters here.
Their fun filled minds are unable to grasp the concept that opposition and political protest are awareness raising exercises, which might, just might, impact how our city operates in the future, how the province addresses social issues, how our senior levels of government interpret our rights and freedoms in future events, or how the next Olympics is conducted.
I know that is hard to understand, and that it is much easier to simply adopt the fatalistic attitude of “oh well, its here, we paid for it, lets have fun.” Clearly, people need a history lessen as to why this country’s forefathers fought and died. I can assure you it was not to have these fundamental rights trounced for an amateur athletic event of all things. Maybe they should create a history pavilion alongside the DTES pavilion, so FTBuyer and he emo grad school friends can get schooled as to why such serious concepts as the freedom of expression where bought with the lives of over our soldiers.
Seem to be a lot of bitter losers here who weren’t able to get any tickets…
Personally, I will be in Whistler for the second weekend of the festivities while I am betting that you will have some cheap tickets to a third rate event and will be trolling all the free events. I will enjoy the games and festivities, all the while providing my moral support to those individuals that choose to exercise their fundamental right to protest in Vancouver.
You see young’un, you can still have fun and support our basic Canadian rights and freedoms without resorting to telling or hoping for people to leave the city when they don’t agree with your views.
“I will enjoy the games and festivities, all the while providing my moral support to those individuals that choose to exercise their fundamental right to protest in Vancouver.”
Thanks for the laugh, Critical Bat.
He has some solid points VD. I don’t think enjoying the games and supporting the right to protest is mutually exclusive. Whatever. I am tired of reading and hearing about the Olympics. Go protest, go have fun, nobody cares.
VD, I guess your multi-year itchy trigger finger is making you cranky and getting the best of you. Just go buy, enjoy the Olympics, and stop your racist Paul Revere whining about the “Chinese are coming, the Chinese are coming.” The Chinese are already here and here to stay so get over it you closet xenophobe.
I for one am super pumped for the Olympics! I have four friends coming in from out of town to stay with me. While my place will be a bit tight its going to be great. We are going to multiple events, the Molson Canadian Hockey House, the Dutch House, the Live viewing site and Cypress. This is going to be a fantastic party and I really wish everyone who is so against it would just go to Mexico for 2 weeks. You had your vote, you lost! Its democracy in action. You had 7 years to protest, its up. The world is coming and you can’t stop it so shut the hell up and let everyone else have fun!
Welcome to the World – Lets go Canada!
McLovin
“It appears simple concepts like raising political awareness and the protection of freedom of speech and assembly are too complex for our younger posters here.”
Nonense. There have been many anti-Olympic protests in number of different ways over the years. I believe wholly in peoples right to do so, and don’t need any lectures in history from you of all people, or patronizing assumptions about my age. It’s now in EVERYBODY’s interest that the event goes well. So, fine, protest all you want and cause whatever disruption you feel like. Just don’t start crying when you have to start paying for the failure that you helped to bring about. Quite ironic that you’d wish failure on a city that you obviously have some level of interest in real estate in.
^^^^
What a moron you are? Did you even think before you open your mouth?
The VANOC Olympic bid process was already underway BEFORE the “plebscite” (not referendum), and the results would not have mattered. Plebiscites are non-binding opinion polls. No so democratic eh? And only the City of Vancouver voted, not the other municipalities that are affected by the Games.
You know, this party involves 4 local governments, and was funded directly and indirectly by the Province and the feds. So everyone has a say in the games, so if someone in Surrey is upset that their taxes may have to go up to cover the debt, they have that right. And is there a statue of limitations on when you can no longer protest? Wow, you really are a social retard. Go back to swillin’ beer you ignoramus.
“I don’t think enjoying the games and supporting the right to protest is mutually exclusive.”
Maybe not mutually exclusive but certainly laugable when you’re sitting in the lap of luxury stuffing your fat face. Anyway, I didn’t like Critical Bat’s stoopid tone of talking down to a ‘youngin’ like he’s some sort of God annointing from on high the appropriate thoughts and behaviour of a moral person and then rather amusingly admitting he’ll be in the lap of luxury while the plebs go up against the police and their batons. Where I’m from that’s called hypocrisy. But what do I know?
And I don’t care much for your tone either. So here’s a link for you and Critical Bat to do battle with the lineup for free beer and snacks while the protestors get baton-wacked in the other part of town fighting for the alleged free speech CB so passionately cherishes (but as passionately as free chockies from Switzerland).
http://www.citycaucus.com/2010free
(but NOT as passionately as free chockies from Switerland).
z
“And is there a statue of limitations on when you can no longer protest? Wow, you really are a social retard. Go back to swillin’ beer you ignoramus.”
Please try and engage your brain before posting in future. Nobody is saying that you have no right to protest, only that by protesting during the games you increase the chances of making worse the very situation you’re protesting about! Get it now?
This is the only response I ever get and it’s getting old.
“I have the right to protest, affect change…blah blah blah”
I fully support the right to protest, but unless you are trying to accomplish something then it is just moronic. If the games were something that happen more than once in a lifetime here, I would understand. In fact I might grab a sign and be out there too because it should be known that the people dont want the games again.
However, this will NEVER come back to Vancouver again. Regardless of if it is the best or worst olympics in history it still aint coming back. This is why I dont understand. Yes you have the right to voice your opinion, I never said you didnt, I said I dont understand the point of trying to ruin the event for everyone else.
“It appears simple concepts like raising political awareness and the protection of freedom of speech and assembly are too complex for our younger posters here. ”
Protest away! Just do it for a reason. You mid as well just have an “I have the right to protest” protest.
“This is going to be a fantastic party and I really wish everyone who is so against it would just go to Mexico for 2 weeks. You had your vote, you lost! Its democracy in action. You had 7 years to protest, its up.
Please try to read the person’s post before you attempt to defend someone’s lunacy so pitifully. Even a layman can understand the implications of this person’s statement when he wishes dissenting persons to “go to Mexico” and that the time to protest if over after “7 years.” Got it now? Try to avoid knee jerk responses to posts that seem to support your own position.
However, this will NEVER come back to Vancouver again
Yup, never coming back to Vancouver, but maybe protests over poverty and homelessness may bring attention to the issues so that they are dealt with in other countries hosting the Olympics? Maybe the IOC becomes more firm in demanding changes to how host cities operate? You know, that whole social justice thing. But hey, lets party.
“Just don’t start crying when you have to start paying for the failure that you helped to bring about?”
Alright, but…
Just don’t start crying when you face cuts in the provision of basic services or increased taxation across the board for the next few decades because you defended an event that whose profit projections were ludicrous and whose legacy of debt will far surpass revenue from the “best case scenario.”
“Quite ironic that you’d wish failure on a city that you obviously have some level of interest in real estate in?”
Really?? Is it really ironic, or simply reflective of a desire to see an increase in the affordability of real estate in this city?
Do I really want the games to be such a success that Vancouver further becomes a stratified city that caters to international money where your average peons cannot afford to live? The sooner this is over, there is one less peg holding the market up, and one less official “reason” to support the high prices in this city. But hey, its not like I am a first time buyer waiting and waiting and waiting for prices to become more affordable….
Here is to the success of the Olympics! May it bring the rich Asians that VD so fears, the beer party that McLovin is looking forward too, and the higher prices and bidding wars that FTBuyer desires.
Well-said CM. However do I really ‘fear’ rich Asians? Am I really afraid of them as people or am I merely commenting on the possibility that while we were all looking to the US for market trends maybe the biggest market factor affecting our house prices was coming from the other direction. Asia. Not the people but the economic after-effects of the biggest shift in wealth and power since the decline of the British Empire to the benefit of the US. No one knows if that’s what’s currently driving Chinese prosperity at the moment or if it’s quantitative easing. If you can’t stand comment like that, then maybe you shouldn’t be reading a Vancouver real estate blog.
If in fact, it turns out that this is what’s happening, and I’m not saying it is then I suggest we quit this blog and call Rob as soon as possible and get on any rung of the property ladder fast as you can because you will be priced out between now and [insert any Asian city] house prices. And what CM says will come true because Vancouver is being marketed right now as a Hotel City. And very few of us will be able to afford a room at the hotel if these marketers are successful.
The comment about “fearing asians” just made a nice summary statement. More tongue in cheek.
I agree with the potential impact of the Asian monetary and fiscal policies. However, if this really becomes a hotel city, do you really want to still live here? The flavour of the city changes, and I for one would no longer want to keep my place here.
“Do I really want the games to be such a success that Vancouver further becomes a stratified city that caters to international money where your average peons cannot afford to live?”
No, but I think there’s a happy compromise somewhere in the middle between utter failure and what you say above.
101
“maybe protests over poverty and homelessness may bring attention to the issues so that they are dealt with in other countries hosting the Olympics? ”
Really? So you think that other future countries hosting the olympics will look at vancouver and say “hmm that didnt go to well and they have homeless people, lets make sure we dont have any when we get the olympics”. And someone said earlier that I am hoping for a perfect world…
You wanna help the homeless? Go work at a shelter or donate to one of the many organizations doing good work for ending homelessness. Dont protest a completly unrelated event.
“Maybe the IOC becomes more firm in demanding changes to how host cities operate?”
Considering the last place that had the olympics was Beijing I think the IOC would have to bump up their standards quite a bit in order to consider Vancouver a city unfit to host the games. The mild loss of privacy and increased security here is nothing compared to what the people of china face on an everyday basis.
Google “tiananmen square” here and you get 1000’s of pictures of the guy in front of the tank. Do it in china and you wont find a single one.
CM,
Yes. I still have to live here. Husband’s job is here. So I would have to. Plus, I like it here.
Critical Mass/Get over It/CM/Anonymous:
You don’t have to use one handle, but don’t refer to yourself in the third person (91 & 89 share the same IPs). Its deceptive, and since you’re not really fighting the man that’s not excusable.
106
You clearly live in an hole as you are unable to grasp the simplest concepts of political advocacy, public relations and leveraging.
Do you ever think that if the IOC faces repeated protests at venues on the same issues that maybe their internal guidelines will change over time? Do you not think that their guidelines have changed over the years as issues such as addressing homelessness have creaped into the world screen?
“Dont protest a completly unrelated event.”
I take it you assume that this is a noble amateur athletic event, completely devoid of political and commercial interests and agendas. Dear lord, if you think that way you truly are bloody naive.
This event includes everything from putting a good face on Vancouver to attract investment to garnering public support for future provincial and national elections. Since this is clearly more than simply an athletic party, why wouldn’t you use this as a platform to raise pressing issues that can garner action when you have the spot light of the world on us.
Do you think that all those “special interest” groups fail to understand that they can potentially “leverage” concessions from the senior orders of government?
And by the way, the homeless issue was supposed to be tackled as part of the bid to hold the Olympics. It was DIRECTLY linked to the event. The whole push to open and redevelop SROs was part of the Olympic pledge.
Try doing some god damn research for once before you spout your cheerleading drivel. Try using that “google” tool you cite. I think that your demonstrated lack of Olympic knowledge should disqualify you from attending any Olympic events…
VD/95… “sitting in the lap of luxury stuffing your fat face”… somehow, I just couldn’t resist this…
INT. RESTAURANT (PAN PACIFIC IOC DINING ROOM) – NIGHT
http://tinyurl.com/4egltc
“But Monsieur, it’z wafferrr thin!”
“This event includes everything from putting a good face on Vancouver to attract investment to garnering public support for future provincial and national elections. Since this is clearly more than simply an athletic party, why wouldn’t you use this as a platform to raise pressing issues that can garner action when you have the spot light of the world on us.”
Because the world is looking at Vancouver for the sporting events which are about to happen here, it doesn’t care about whatever issues you think are important in provincial elections. How is it “putting a good face on Vancouver” if a bunch of unwashed hippies think it would be fun to disrupt the events and perhaps have a bit of a punch up with the riot police? You want a good local outcome from the Olympics? Then the Olympics have to run well. There’s no two ways about it. If you want to protest against the concept of the Olympics as a whole, then get up off your butt and do it at a more appropriate location. In other words, “Don’t s*** where you eat”.
Hoo boy, some ranting and namecalling going on while I was busy!
Meanwhile… “The New York Post reported Monday that the parent of Intrawest ULC, the company that owns one of the venues for the Vancouver Winter Olympics, wants the Canadian government to put up $90 million US before the Games start or it will sue.
***
The report said Fortress wants to get paid before the Games start or it will start legal proceedings.”
So is that blackmail or ransom?
Everyone is denying it of course, what else would you expect, but it sounds like sound business practices to me. When someone has willingly put themselves in vulnerable position of course you take them for all you can. The shareholders demand no less.
http://tinyurl.com/yjxfa4x
From that and some other sources I take it the root of the demand is an agreement to compensate Intrawest for business lost as a result of the games, but the way it is worded it doesn’t matter whether the revenue drop is due to the games, to the recession, an act of god or crappy snow. If Intrawest sees less revenue this year than the the past three… Pay up!
HP,
How did I manage to miss the introduction to that piece? And for so many years? I must live in a cave or a hole with poor ol’ Davers whose not allowed to be 20 years old on this board. He must grow up and become a cynical priced out fart immediately. Well, at least we can catch up on all the oldies but goodies. Thanks for that.
166 new listings today on the east and west side (see http://www.yattermatters.com)…rebgv had a ‘balanced’ commentary….
66 sales…way below 50%….VD, I don’t care what you and your blind brethern think they see, but what IS happening is listings are surging (look at the rebgv news release) and sales are slowing…when was the last time december had more sales than january???
this market appears to be losing steam…running out of buyers….a banker told me today that a lot of borrowers are hitting the wall and having trouble making payments despite having extensions….
vd, want to grab a beer this month and debate this? seriously, i’d be up for it…
anyways, square the bloody circle or whatever, cause i don’t see how you see sold signs and busy open houses everywhere (not saying your lying,,,,at all..but your data set must be skewed, no????_…east side detached prices down 50k, sales down and net listings up…and for early feb i’m seeing a ton ton ton ton ton of new for sale signs…everywhere..im in burnaby now, just tons…is it over now? slow death has begun?
how is the valley looking?
vancouver is falling apart
vd don’t buy
ftb buy
on the landmaking machine front:
they are truckin’ snow from Manning Park to Cyprus Mountain
…..almost biblical in scope
BS
What do u make of Larry’s #s…..
What about the Valley, how hot is it?
Lots of new For Sale signs in my ‘hood tonight.
They go up fast.
WBWYCR, see the January numbers? Here is the quote from MLS:
“Over the last 12 months, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver increased 17.2 per cent to $573,241 from $489,007 in January 2009. This price is 0.8 per cent above the previous high point in the market in May 2008 when the residential benchmark price sat at $568,411.”
Good thing you didn’t take my first offer. We’ll see if things hold up over the next seven months. It’s going to be close either way.
McLovin says…
This is going to be a fantastic party and I really wish everyone who is so against it would just go to Mexico for 2 weeks. You had your vote, you lost! Its democracy in action.
Ahem, I hate to lay this on you, but, ONLY Vancouverites (proper) got to vote on it – 60K people or so vs. the rest of the 4 million or so that live in BC. Never mind the Fed $ kick-in. If that’s your idea of democracy, no wonder we’re in a world of hurt.
I don’t care what happens with this circus … I am going to Mexico for a month or two.
Part of me wants it to bomb so that other cities won’t ever get roped into this financial ream-and-cream; and another part of me wants Vancouver to shine so we don’t have too many debts and can pull off this event with our dignity intact.
Hoping for a happy ending, but that’s hard for a cynic.
You know, I know just have to give it to wow/anon sometimes. To consistently see the positive amidst the doom is indeed an admirable trait. Some may say he is naive, delusional, blind to the facts, but he has kept his position intact while many other bears have faltered at the real estate altar.
the Olympics will be a bust. or a boom.
so what
For Sale signs are popping up like crazy. Why the sudden rush for the exits?
121
#94 already covered off that point…
#117 Blueskies…
“on the landmaking machine front:
they are truckin’ snow from Manning Park to Cyprus Mountain
…..almost biblical in scope”
Apparently, this happened in Innsbruck, the army had to truck in snow and soldiers shovelled it onto bare ground.
I lived in Calgary during the ‘88 Games, and weather was pretty dicey. A chinook came in, temps up to 15C, the super G at Nakiska was cancelled with 100kph winds. It’s hard to plan around nature.
Jake Moldowan, president-elect of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said January was still a busy month for realtors.
He added that a substantial rise in new listings in January was “refreshing for us, because we were getting short of product again.”
Homeowners put 5,147 properties on the market in January, which was 139 per cent more than were listed in December, and was 39 per cent higher than in January 2009.
Sellers listed 2,941 properties for sale in January, a near doubling from the number of new listings put up for sale in December.
#124 anonymous,
apologies…I won’t post anymore. It’s been ‘covered off’.
i have been informed that loads of recent buyers are stretched/behind on payments – is this true? could we foreclosures in vancouver explode in the months ahead?
i’m telling ya blokes, for sale signs are exploding onto lawns everywhere and contrary to vd and ftbutfarter the buyers are NOT keeping pace.
just telling it like it is. like it was. and like it will be.
Just wait.
Me too (lots of new listings in my daily walking area).
109
Please stop saying I know nothing about things like political advocacy. I have said several times I have nothing against protesting and trying to change things, I just dont think this is the right way to do it.
First of all, the government that made the bid and the government in power now are not the same (I am talking the CoV, gordo is still kickin it in Victoria).
Look, it is fine for them to protest, I dont really have a problem with that, so long as they do it in an organised manner that doesnt completly screw up all of the events. The only thing that pisses me off is that it seems to be their entire goal to screw things up. You want to get your message out do it respectfully. Dont screw up the event for a bunch of fans and athletes who worked their entire lives to get where they are.
I am more in favour of the Martin Luther King style of protest and you seem to be more Black Panthers (“by any means neccessary”).
“Do you ever think that if the IOC faces repeated protests at venues on the same issues that maybe their internal guidelines will change over time? ”
No, I figure that if they keep facing protests in places with lots of free speech they might pick more places like China where they will face far less resistance. The IOC wants to make money and see successful games. If they face resistance in free thinking countries they might pick places with more heavy handed governments. I think this would be wrong, but I think that is what would happen.
Saying that the IOC would pick place with less homelessness or something along those lines is crazy. They want to see successful games, regardless of the city they are in.
The homeless issue is a tough issue anyway and we seem to be getting off track. There is no easy fix to homelessness or it would have been done already. It is a complicated problem as each person has a unique problem and requires a unique solution. No policy will save them all.
My original point was I dont see the point of moaning about the olympics. You can complain or you can have fun. I choose have fun and you call me a cheerleader.
HP/VD
Even in the cave I live in and with my limited life experience I have still seen that at least half a dozen times.
you need more and more buyers
willing to pay ever increasing prices
to keep the party going…..
will they step up and take a bullet
for the team…..?
if and when vdog capitulates
all hell will break loose
that you Cerberus?
It’s true. Once I capitulate it’s all o.v.e.r. If you look at my stock picking history, you’ll notice the trend. I buy, the company goes bankrupt!!! OK. That’s an overstatement. It has only happened once and only when I had a “sure thing” totally “insider” scoop!
But, and here’s the rub, I can’t seem to make myself buy. No matter how close I come, I hear England calling, Ireland calling, Spain calling, and every city in the US calling. Maybe I could buy something small just to set off the avalanche… like a micro suite? Who needs more than 175 square feet to live in when you’ve been married for 15 years? (There’s your answer to the beer, WoW. Sorry, dude.)
VD
How about buying a timeshare in Whistler, maybe that could trigger the avalanche? But it sounds like with your luck that avalanche would knock over the place you just bought.
Hmmm… lemme think about it.
Hey! Wow! From your buddy, Larry:
Units listed in Jan for the years 2010, 2009 and 2008 were 1952,1421 and 1865 respectively.
Average price for the same periods were $950,785, $782,961 and $877,272 – quite a bounce!
So listings coming in as per the usual years. Nothing to write home about. But check out the price jump. Pretty, pretty, pretty disconcerting, aye?
If you don’t exercise your right to protest every once and a while, it easily becomes forgotten how to do it in the first place. It’s like exercising on a regular basis in preparation for the one day you have to run away from a hungry bear.
Whether or not you agree with what’s being protested, it’s a wholly political and cunning tool. It’s also very effective when done properly and only a blatant violation of human rights can stop it in its tracks. Don’t like it? Go and protest the protesters.
One thought on all this dickering about protests, politics, etc. —
You’re not going to agree with everyone on the best way to do things, but you’re free to state your own beliefs, hold up a sign with such, share them on blogs, in print, with your friends.
And that’s why it all works. So, complain about others’ beliefs and choices to “protest” or not, but don’t complain about the right to have different beliefs and to act accordingly.
That’s the beauty of it — it might not always be a pretty process, but it sure has its benefits.
Cheers,
WBWUCR’t'13?
Dave (120) wrote
>> WBWYCR, see the January numbers?
>> Good thing you didn’t take my first offer.
Yup, I wasn’t about to take a bear-bet on anything until at least 6 mos after The Games.
We’ll see how it all plays out.
You going to see any events, Dave?
WBWUCR’t'13?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/03/business/03walk.html
At 25% underwater, folks start to think about walking from their mortgages. NYT.
“With prices now down by about 30 percent, underwater borrowers fall into two groups. Some have owned their homes for many years and got in trouble because they used the house as a cash machine. Others, like Mr. Koellmann in Miami Beach, made only one mistake: they bought as the boom was cresting.”
“‘There is no financial sense in staying,’ Mr. Koellmann said. With the $1,500 he is paying each month for his mortgage, taxes and insurance, he could rent a nicer place on the beach, one with a gym, security and valet parking.”
WBWUCR’t'13?
i appreciate that the starting point is low, but rob, have we ever seen this type of % increase in listings in the past, or is this a historical moment to reflect upon?
vd only see’s sold signs, by the way.
SenorCaballero: FYI – the latest post is returning “Error 404 – Not Found”…
whybuy
I agree that everyone has different opinions and that is totally fine. I was just trying to gain some understanding into why there are so many people who plan on being pissed off for the entire games for reasons like “they cost too much”. True as that may be, why not try and enjoy them?
From their it kind of branched into the talk of protest which wasnt my initial question but even then the best answer I could get had something to do with homelessness.
It seems my view on the whole thing isnt cynical enough for CM and others so I may never understand why he insists on calling anyone attending anything to do the the games cheerleaders.
Best of luck to those who decide to protest and I hope they accomplish what they set out to do, if they ever figure out what that is.
WoW, make me a walking map of your streets. I promise to take my glasses.
vd, hahah!:)
Dude, I’m serious, I see LOTS of new signs, and Larry’s stats seem to concur…but your walking area could be different in recent trend, I”m notdebating this, and even though i see some signs of bearish (realism) optimism, its too early to call, will be mid-year really before we have a good sense of things, and if rates increase mid-year, then we’ll need another 6-12 months, so loooong ways to go yet…but that said, there does seem to be a very slight build up in inventory and notch down in sales, even rebgv is commenting on this…let’s see what the next 4 weeks bring…if we end the big O with higher inventory and lower sales, I think this COULD impact specuvestor mood in march/april – but too soon to tell…
can’t believe the big O is almost here…I didn’t care about it one bit and poo poo’ed it, but now that its here I’m somewhat excited and look forward to taking a bit of it in….why not! i agree with davers (believe it or not) on this and his view on protesting (which seems balanced and objective to me)
china resale home activity has plummetted in january – due to bank tightening.
any thoughts on how this would impact here? would those folks rush here to trade housing like poker chips, or is the very sharp slowdown in sales tied to what’s happening in china? me, i expect china to be successful in moderating (cooling) their RE market in 2010.
thoughts/input/opinions se vous plait – u2 rob.
Davers, “I was just trying to gain some understanding into why there are so many people who plan on being pissed off for the entire games for reasons like “they cost too much”.” — What I find amusing is that people who are livid about the cost act like they’ve just been mugged at gunpoint and had their life’s savings stolen from them. I mean really, has anyone noticed a change to their personal finances from the games? I know we’ll all end up paying eventually through higher taxes, but it’s not going to bankrupt anyone.
New from the Ministry of Truth:
“The U.S. may lose 824,000 jobs when the government releases its annual revision to employment data on Feb. 5″
http://tinyurl.com/y9g9rh2
So why revise the data if that’s what causes the job losses? After all, we could invoke Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and state that the job losses didn’t happen if we don’t measure them…
And while we’re on the subject, please explain why unemployment is only at 10% in the States, when “The participation rate, or the share of the population in the labor force, fell to 64.6 percent in December, the lowest level since 1985, from 64.9 percent.”
http://tinyurl.com/y8qj4qz
Extended benefit recipients, expired benefit unemployed, people who just plain gave up don’t get counted, therefore don’t exist in official reckoning. It’s all starting to feel rather Pravdaish.
It’s all in how you compile the stats I guess. Consumer confidence is so very important after all.
http://www.vancouversun.com/World+Today+Taliban+plants+bomb+near+school+kills+three+American+soldiers/2517813/story.html
i don’t understand/condone/agree with (at all) anyone killing anyone at any time – senseless
but children…little girls? what is wrong with this world…i hope everything is sorted out in the great beyond and that full justice is delivered and peace and serenity for the victims…just soo sad
HP:
Thanks for the heads up. Fixed it.
Whybuy:
I don’t think anyone has said protest is a bad thing in and of itself. I think the questions are 1) why and 2) how, as in why are you protesting and how do plan to accomplish your goal.
I think most agree that if the answers are 1) world peace and 2) reasoned debate, peaceful protest and civil disobedience then everyone is onside. If the answers are 1) I’m just pissed and I want to share my pain 2)I’m going complain long and loud, then maybe the protester is reducing his credibility. Feel free to discuss on the new thread.
AC
I could be wrong but I think participation means of everyone (may or may not include retired people and people under 18) 65% are working. The other 35% includes people going to school, stay at home parents, people too rich to work… that kind of thing. The unemployment stat is the amount of people who want to work but cant find any.
This gets hazy because how do you decide who really wants to work? If you are on EI then sure, but that runs out eventually and then what?
The consumers can be as confident as they want, but if they dont have jobs they still cants spend money.
Purp:
The irony is that I should actually be the most upset about the cost overruns because I will be paying for this fiasco for longer than people like CM who are old enough to poop on my limited life experience.
Purp 146 -
I even find it more amusing to hear people complain about the cost of the games and in the same breath complain about the cost of the tickets.
Don’t they realize that if the tickets were cheaper then more money would be taken from their pockets in the form of taxes??? Charge more for the tickets if it means a lower tax bill at the end of the games.
Wow,
I’d love to share your enthusiasm but here’s how I’m looking at it: December was December, January was January and because of the Olympics February will be just like a December or a January–meaningless.
Once the smoke clears we will be faced with 2 things: on your side–sellers. Possibly lots of them. Pent up demand to LIST. (Not sell at lower prices, just to list their glorious abodes for outrageous prices). Maybe if there’s an avalanche of new listings, sellers will get that funny feeling in the pit of their stomachs. But all that handy new-build inventory that would have made this potential more of a sure-thing has all but disappeared.
On the other side–ongoing low interest rates and a nasty, buyer-panic-inducing deadline to get in before HST and the alleged interest rate increase (which I’m not sure will come this year). That in itself, combined with previous buying history in this city is enough to persuade me that what yer seein’ on the road ain’t nothin’ but noise.
I wish I could see things your way but I don’t right now.
Davers:
Partipation rate is the percentage of able-bodied people of working age. Kids, seniors, students, prisoners etc excluded. It is a very significant number, and has steadily risen as two-income families have become the norm. There is no good reason for a very significant drop except high structural unemployment.
http://www.bnn.ca/news/15514.html
AC:
It doesnt include students? By students I mean over the age of 18 attending post secondary. I would assume it does because a good chunk of students do work part time, but you seem to know more about this than me.
Anyway I would agree that it is odd that this number is the lowest since 85. It would be more alarming if it was even earlier because I think by 85 many households had both parents working. Nevertheless I highly doubt that the number of intentionally single income households has increase since then. They most likely are massaging the numbers in my opinion.