November 22 Stats
Inventory for REBGV and FVREB attached and detached was 17,708, of which 5,523, or 31.19%, were over 90s; inventory is lower than last week, over 90s are higher. For the REBGV the numbers were 11,075, 3,255 and 29.39%; inventory is down, overs 90s up. For the FVREB the numbers were 6,633, 2,268 and 34.19%. Lower inventory, higher over 90s.
REBGV detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,063 new listings, 331 price changes, and 806 sales for a sell/list of 75.82%.
11,075/(806*4.25) = 3.23 MOI.
FVREB detached and attached numbers for last week were 485 new listings, 197 price changes, and 360 sales for a sell/list of 74.23%.
6,633/(360 *4.25)= 4.34 MOI.
Combined detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,548 new listings, 528 price changes, and 1,166 sales. Sell/list was 75.32%. 17,708/(1,166*4.25) = 3.57 MOI.
First chart is REBGV, second is the Valley, third is combined.
Rob’s Report Generator
Data for File: SalesNov222009REBGV.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 806 | $629,920.68 | $613,464.00 | -$16,456.67 | -1.96% | 43 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 504 | $453,554.87 | $444,052.46 | -$9,502.41 | -1.86% | 38 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 289 | $927,434.64 | $900,279.41 | -$27,155.24 | -2.02% | 49 |
Data for File: SalesNov222009FVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 360 | $428,231.30 | $417,182.18 | -$11,049.12 | -2.08% | 57 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 161 | $285,068.99 | $278,698.20 | -$6,370.79 | -2.34% | 51 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 183 | $562,034.35 | $543,964.61 | -$18,069.74 | -2.85% | 63 |
Data for File: SalesNov222009REBGVFVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 1166 | $567,649.52 | $552,862.41 | -$14,787.10 | -1.99% | 48 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 665 | $412,763.55 | $404,019.32 | -$8,744.23 | -1.97% | 41 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 472 | $785,764.61 | $762,131.93 | -$23,632.68 | -2.34% | 54 |
82 comments
A 75% sell/list going into December. Holy hot market, batman.
At times like these it’s best to remember that markets are essentially driven by the aggregated impulses of actors who may or may not be responding rationally to events – or as Barry over at the BigPicture so elqouently puts it, ‘the collective wisdom of 10 million panicked monkeys’….
Hence, this morning’s best…
[NYT - Schiller] What if a Recovery Is All in Your Head?
http://tinyurl.com/yb3hr7a
[BigPicture/BarryRitzholtz] How overrated is Sentiment in Economics?
http://tinyurl.com/yjnucym
Last up – today’s ‘Moment of Zen’….
[ZeroHedge/TylerDurden] The Most Recent Recipient Of Obama’s Middle Class-Funded Generosity: Key Largo’s Ocean Reef Club For The Mega Wealthy
http://tinyurl.com/yb7ym5t
[WSJ] Cash for Clubbers – Congress’s fabulous golf cart stimulus.
http://tinyurl.com/yjhfp4n
Afterthought for the theoretically inclined…
Keynesian ‘beauty contests’
http://tinyurl.com/yu7cno
Thank you Rob, great update.
I note, sales are about 15 days delayed, on average.
Did anyone read Scotia Capital’s comments on housing? We are at a record high price-to-rent ratio – I imagine Vancouver is off the charts on this metric.
Any thoughts?
Anonymous -
Can you give us all a link for the Scotia Capital comments?
Thanks,
vreaa
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/streetwise/why-home-prices-are-frothy/article1372885/?cid=art-rail-streetwise
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip238118#clip238118
Did Obama actually use the words “double dip recession” recently or have I dreamt it?
“Flagging rich valuations is not, however, tantamount to predicting anything imminent by way of give back on prices. In fact, they could well push further into record territory next year, before material risks build.”
- Oh those crazy economists with their fancy round about ways to say, “Holy crap batman check out this housing bubble, this sucker can’t last forever!”
VD:
Yes, he did. He argued an Fox News that he had to keep the US dollar from crashing by limiting stimulus so as to avoid a DDR.
Speaking of DoubleDips – this excellent piece just in from Dr. Doom (worth it for the links alone – some ‘heavy lifting’ required)…
“The equilibrium coexistence of zero interest rates, high unemployment, deflation, rising cash balances and excess reserves points to a liquidity trap environment as during the Great Depression and Japan’s lost decade.”….
or for those who prefer a less technical approach…
“Unlike 1929, debts are being fought with debts, meaning that not only banks but entire countries could end up bankrupt. Perhaps the efforts to combat the current crisis are merely laying the foundations for the next crisis, which will be bigger still. See 1929 vs. 2009: Parallels And Differences To The Great Depression “…
http://tinyurl.com/y8anmn5
Sovereign default anyone?
So it seems like still the houses are selling under the asking price on average, even though the media/realty agents(Rob Chipman is cool)/banks are trying to reinflate the boat. There are some fools that bit this in the last months, too bad for them. The wreck train was slowed for a while, but is close to the cliff again.
duru2k/12,
Another house on my street sold, one day after the first showing. It listed at 800k, and did not sell under asking. This is not a personal accusation — but I hear “wolf!” fairly frequently here, and it makes the bear case sound pretty weary.
Things will change when they’re good and ready, and neither consensus nor repeated assertions on this site will make it happen a moment sooner. We may be close to the cliff, but I can’t see it yet. (If I seem grumpy, it’s because I’m tired of waiting. Nothing personal.)
#12, the average stats are weighted heavily by the pricier properties. Many places under around $400K will still sell for substantially more than their asking price, those for which $2m is asked seem to be selling for less. People like averages, but they don’t always have that much meaning.
FT – are you noticing some softening?
“the average stats are weighted heavily by the pricier properties.”
Exactly. There are a lot of bad stats thrown around… “average” prices which are skewed to the high end, as well as anecdotal reports of bidding wars, etc. The only accurate data, in my opinion, is the monthly Teranet stats. And I predict that when the latest price increases peak, they will do so at lower levels than their May ‘08 peak prices, and it will be downhill from there for several years.
Yalie – do you see rollover to the downside prior to the Olympics?
Any thoughts/comments on Garth’s advice to Joe this evening?
Garth’s advice ? no thanks.
Anonymous 17 – My guess is that we’ve seen the majority of price increases, and the declines will begin in December/January like they do most years. And when the olympics are finally over, there will be so many listings flooding the market that the usual spring bounce will barely keep them flat until fall, when prices will go down faster than a hooker at a frat party.
Yalie,
Interesting forecast. Do you sense things are slowing right now?
At a dinner party last night, the views on local real estate were down right bearish (I was the only renter in the group), with the view that the turning point must be close – that said, who knows….
In Vancouver, House prices on a tear
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/in-vancouver-house-prices-on-a-tear/article1370210/
Toronto office vacancies to soar
Toronto’s office vacancy rate is projected to soar to 13.6 per cent by 2011, topping those of New York and Boston, a new report says. The greater the number of vacancies, the more landlords will struggle to maintain high rents. After a construction surge in downtown Toronto, a report by Cushman & Wakefield Inc., a leading commercial property broker, says vacancies in Toronto’s core will hit 7.8 per cent by the end of 2009, then 12.1 per cent year. The 2011 peak would compare to a forecast of 13.4 per cent for midtown Manhattan. “We’re going to have a little bumpy ride for the next couple of years,” Paul Morse, Cushman & Wakefield’s senior managing director of office leasing in Toronto, told Bloomberg News. “We’re not going to see too many buildings after this because the economics aren’t really there to support it.”
Today’s ‘Moment of Zen’….
[WSJ] A Mad Rush as Gold Bugs Get the Boot…
http://tinyurl.com/yhr7hnw
Disagree. This housing rally is caused by cheap, easy money. It won’t end until the money stops.
VD – it did elsewhere.
Won’t it end when there are more sellers than buyers? Are we growing new buyers that quickly, or could some of that buying demand be spent, relative to selling that may build up…guess only time will tell.
It’s one thing to hope prices will go down, and it’s another to actually see it going down. Right now, there are no signs of it. My friend was looking for a condo in downtown, before they had a chance to even see the unit it was sold with multiple offers above asking.
Properties around the Main street area are being sold at well above asking prices. Maybe if one property was sold above asking, then the buyer overpaid, but when you have many sold over asking, then one has to start thinking.
My thoughts are if you can afford the mortgage (regardless whether the property is overpriced in your opinion), and you happen to find something you like, then consider going after it.
“18 Anonymous Mon, Nov 23, 2009 | 8:48 pm
Any thoughts/comments on Garth’s advice to Joe this evening?”
I would take Garth’s comments with a grain of salt. My opinion is he is a very narrow minded individual. When examples are thrown to him where the numbers make sense, he would completely dismiss it and advise the individual to sell and sit tight. He also claims to put the money and earn 5% interest risk free. Where can you get that kind of return with zero risk?
Personally his comments are amusing and I can’t believe so many people are following his advice.
25 – It would seem there are a number of years left of boomers becoming empy nesters and downsizing.
As long as the average # of persons/household continues to drop, there will be demand. As long as the boomers have their wealth and seek new, downsized housing, there will be demand.
But…just wait till the next generations begin coping with the unsustainable economy western society boomers have built on cheap oil since WWII – now that will be a field day for the bears! Me thinks that a few hundred grand for a cookie cutter home dozens of miles from urban centres will be no more…
SC
Get your head out of the sand. Prices cannot and will not continue to climb forever. It is the Gov that has kept this bubble afloat. Garth is the voice of reason in this arena and I would soon believe him over any Realtor or Mortgage broker. What does he have to benefit by the collapse of RE in Vancouver.
SC@26
“hope prices will go down”
Hope? You really think that there is “hope” ? How about changing hope with “know”, “must”, “will” etc..
I think you can hardly find a person that would not agree with this. In real terms the prices WILL go down. The only difference on this blog is what will happen with nominal prices.
Disbelief/23,
I didn’t hear SC claim prices would continue rising, he just said he doesn’t see any signs of decreases at the moment.
In my estimation, Garth’s ego is a bit of a zeppelin and can handle a little abuse. One of our failings as a species is to put too much faith into people who show no doubts themselves, especially when they should. On the scale of zero to neurosyphilis, Garth is past my comfort threshold (which, admittedly, is somewhere near two.)
Just remember….Vancouver had the fastest rate of decline of all the North American bubble cities in 2008, losing 14% in roughly seven months. The city where prices only go up, saw prices go down. Of course, that was pre-recession and when bank rates hovered around 3.5
Now, prices have either reached the peak or surpassed them, with bank rates at 0.5%. Even bank economists have come out and acknowledged the “b” word, and noted that price to rent ratios are out of whack. It reminds me of how the media failed to report price drops until 6 months into the decline, when it was self evident. Maybe the banks are similarly covering their back sides now that the “b” word has become self-evident….
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/cgi-bin/famecgi_fdps
Just got back from South East Asia, and NA and European travelers all gives me an incredulous look when I tell them about Canadian RE, personal debt levels, etc. They just shake their head and say, “did you guys not watch what happened around you?????”
I just smile, and say, we are special….
29 Disbelief Tue, Nov 24, 2009 | 11:53 am
SC
Get your head out of the sand. Prices cannot and will not continue to climb forever.
Garth is the voice of reason in this arena and I would soon believe him over any Realtor or Mortgage broker. What does he have to benefit by the collapse of RE in Vancouver.”
#1 I never said prices will keep going up.
#2 Prices will not ‘CRASH’ as many expect (including the great Garth). Maybe 10-15% decrease but that’s it.
I must say I am very impressed with the resiliency of the Vancouver market. We are back at the all time highs after experiencing a global recession. What market can boast this claim?
For the bears out there, if you do decide to wait, don’t expect a 50% drop but if you are lucky to get 15% correction, I’d jump in if I find the right property.
If prices crashed 15% when interest rates were a lot higher, and if we have hit the peak again with interest rates a fraction of what they were at the peak, why wouldn’t the market correct more than 10-15%?
As for being “impressed,” I am more impressed with the co-ordinated gov, RE industry, and media campaign to co-ordinate and promote a single message, and I am “impressed ” with the rose coloured glasses that everyone seems to wear here, along with their ability to live for the moment….
Anon,
I hate it too but at 2.25% VRM, there are lots of buyers. Don’t you think? How else can you explain the last 9 months?
disbelief:
Garth doesn’t need a crash to actually happen anywhere. All he needs is for people to want to read about bad news and speculation about bad news. He sells fear. It sells his books and it sells his bomb shelter generators. That doesn’t mean he never makes sense, or that he’s always lying. I’m just pointing at where his apparent benefits lie. Frankly, he could keep singing form the same songbook forever and probably still do alright. (And to be clear, he may completely believe his message and he may be completely honest with his delivery – I’m not arguing otherwise - but it still seems clear to me that he’s selling fear, even if its a product that he believes in).
Good Times:
Do you really think the different levels of government, media and the RE industry have co-ordinated a campaign to promote a single message? How do they get all the different interests aligned, and more important, how do they keep Jack Layton or Iggy or the Tyee from finding out?
Doing a little web surfing I came across this:
“The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) has, again, revised downwards its predictions for Vancouver House prices in 2009. BCREA now sees Greater Vancouver home prices falling 14% and BC house prices falling 13% in 2009.” Here’s the link:
http://www.2020vancouver.com/node/44
Seems like everyone’s forecasting abilities are off.
Wait!
There might be one other reason why demand/prices won’t be going down too soon… what’s the quote I like best? “Nobody’s really ever lost money in real estate in China… In fact, they don’t really look at real estate as a place to live anymore, they look at it as a place to put their cash.”
http://tinyurl.com/ye78×3r
My favourite quotes @ 2:58-3:12
Larry Yatkowski seems to be indicating the numbers for a slowdown are already there: http://www.yattermatters.com/neighborhood-numbers/mt-pleasant-wishes/#more-7699
VHB,
I really enjoyed that, thanks for the link to Larry’s site…great micro/snapshot, obviously not a reflection of all of the lower mainland…but it seems to appeal to how I sense things, just not as hot, just kinda…slowing..and if sales are 10-20 days behind actual paper signing (ie. removal of subjects), the slowing could really be evident (if its there) in the numbers in the weeks ahead.
That said, much can be blamed on the weather and season.
What do you think?
Dear god man!
How many times can you say things are slowing down? You have been saying that since March?
The market is hot, and will remain hot. Cheap money, soggy brain syndrome, constant media pumping, RE as the only asset class, narco based economy, etc. Yes, yes, our average salaries don’t match average prices; yes, yes, everyone who bought has already bought; yes, yes, interest rates rising just around the proverbial concern; yes, yes, everything will crumble after the Olympics, yes, yes
The market has been hot since 2002 – bears having been calling for a correction since 2006 – its now almost 2010. After 8 years, you think you would put the dark tinted glasses down and realize that people will always buy in Vancouver and afford it somehow – drug money, human trafficking, selling organs and their children, working 3 jobs, etc
That’s what makes people a person in Vancouver – RE. Thats it, thats all. Clicking your heels together and wishing the market will change will not make it change. It is not logical, but this lack of logic has carried the market for 8 years and nothing will change it…
De-nile,
Buy if you wish. I’ll place my bets based on logic.
Logic has really paid off for the past 8 years eh? Hang in there – maybe in another 8 years “logic” will prevail. Of course, that would be 16 years of waiting…
De-Nile,
Logic did not pay off in California, or Las Vegas, or Florida, or the UK, or Ireland, or Spain…until it did. Same for the dot come bubble – logic did not pay off until it did.
You truly are the GREATER FOOL. Buy you putz. Buy all the condo’s you can carry , at 535 variable. Go ahead you dutz.
Me, I see the market slowing – right before my eyeballs. Rapid deceleration.
Fool. Go get ‘em tiger. Buy away, Vancouver real estate only goes up, right! Yutz.
de-nile,
why the angst my friend. if your frustration at the lack of a logical conclusion to this bubble causes you to want to jump aboard, go for it.
let’s jam all you idiots on the train before it leaves the station. enjoy the journey, hope you learn something.
you will learn. the hard way, no doubt. because – and mark my words – bubbles always burst.
by the way, we have the highest price to rent ratio in history. enjoy the ride, climb aboard.
do not forget the impact of grow ups, it is the new modern morgage helper nowdays more than most people think. It is so esasy to get 15 to 20k a month with a very small grow up that wont be noticed by bc hydro and you will never get caught. It is so widespread out there folks. I personally know a police agent and he has a small grow up in his house, mind blowing!!!!
I’m hearing too much about the hidden costs of the Olympics and the various heavy-handed legal tactics being deployed by and on behalf of the games. So I’d like to propose a name-change for the mascots, henceforth they shall be Gotcha, Sue-me and My-gawd.
And De-nile? You think 8 years is a long time, and indicates that it’s different here/this time? God help us all if that is what passes for critical thinking these days. These things can go longer than anyone not in the cult can believe, but logic and fundamentals ALWAYS come back. At least in the past 10 000 bubbles in human history. Maybe it is different this time.
Don’t listen to these doomsayers! Real Estate Never goes down, especially in Vancouver! We have an unlimited supply of professional top-flight young talent coming in every day earning commanding salaries and bursting with entrepreneurial spirit. This is heaven on earth for them. They have seen the beautiful life here and they want it! They will pay anything for it! They earn and they save through property. Some people think it is absurd for a strata townhouse in surrey to go for $600 000+, I say NONSENSE! There’s UNLIMITED demand and an insatiable appetite for property! These newcomers are talented and young and earn big $$$ and they will continue to buy buy buy until the prices reach the moon, and then there might be a gentle correction, but not for years.
Wow, MOT? Unbelievable!
Rob 36:
” he’s selling fear, even if its a product that he believes in”
Well said. And it is worth noting that fear is the number one seller for almost any new-and-opinion outlet. It seems to be a natural human instinct to buy it.
uummm…”buy now or be priced out forever” “buy now before interest rates rise and its no longer affordable” “better put in an offer above ask because there will be lots of offers”
yes, only Garth sells fear…..no other “profession” sells fear…lol
BK 50:
It’s a mover.
[...] November 2009 · Leave a Comment This from Good Times at robchipman.net 24 Nov 2009 12:36 pm [...]
lol – made it into the archives
for clarification, I was referring to the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand when I referenced SE Asia…
my friend bought a house at 500k two months ago, he just sold it at 728K, market is really hot
your friend is blowing smoke up your behind, or you are just naive
hahah – if prices go up 228 k in two months, I guess we can look forward to price cuts of 228k in two months time once this market deflates
Just got an email from some company billing itself ‘ownerdirect.com’. Unsolicited. They state in their ad some new, alleged marketing jargon I’ve never heard of before–the Aversion Affect. Effect? Affect? Shouldn’t that be Effect? Apparently Whistler is experiencing the Aversion Affect, or at least that’s what the ad says. Strange way to advertise.
Doesn’t sound too good does it, Aversion Affect? Nor does it sound good to blab that everyone is avoiding your destination. And then giving it a name with Capital Letters like it’s something serious. It seems like they’re drawing attention to a looming disaster in the category of disasters that require Capital Letters like: H1N1, Y2K and The Great Recession.
Why don’t they buck up? Take it like a destination that banked on a winning number and came up short? Take it as an investment that hasn’t paid off. Just roll over and wait for next year when they’ll hit the post-Olympic Tourism jackpot just like Salt Lake City, Turin and Transylvania have. I mean that’s what they signed up for, right?
This is an odd recession.
http://tinyurl.com/yas5v5c
I suspect US home sales are being bolstered by the tax credit. Probably a rush to get in, as until the last week or two, it looked like it was ending on Nov 30th…now extended to mid-2010, I believe…so should be supportive…paying people to buy houses, great use of taxpayer $?
Here – I wonder if Larry is right – is the market slowing – what are people noticing out there…?
Well, one has to admit that deNile has a valid point…
and it is certainly amusing to see comments like HighRoad’s appearing here again!… but this morning’s real ‘Moment of Zen’ is undoubtedly squirreled away within Newcomer/58’s most excellent link, wherein we learn that one of the realtors competing for X2 presales access is named ‘Bing Wang’ (you just can’t write this stuff!) – almost as funny as the name of a certain Buddhist temple on Broadway near Victoria…
http://tinyurl.com/yed7h44
VD – Plato’s cave allegory worked for me on many levels… on the one hand, the risks inherent in divining anything solely on the basis of what we find online (shadows?) vs. leaving our ‘caves’ to actually see what’s happening ‘out there’ – and on another, more visually analogous level, to YVR’s highly leveraged condo-dwelling ‘prisoners’ whose world-view is predominantly ‘HighRoad’…
In conclusion - is it just me – or did the lead illustration in Newcomer’s link evince a certain ethnic homogeneity???
Definitely not you. Maybe the market, maybe the future or maybe just those damned shadows again.
Crapshot 44:
How did logic not pay off in the States until it did? I know that many homeowners there are now underwater, but I also know that a lot of money was made all the way up (making money = pay off, btw). On the other hand, now that prices have dropped substantially there have been big losses (big loss does not equal pay off, even if the bust can be explained as a function of logic) and even for vulture investors there hasn’t been any great gains. If your argument is that FTBs can now get into US markets at reasonable prices, fair enough, but there are forecasts that it will fall even further (if those forecasts are right then buying now may be logical, in that its affordable, but it certainly won’t have a financial payoff. Recent buyers could still go underwater according to some analysts).
The point? We’ve got a lot of data indicating that the rational actor approach to analyzing a market isn’t something to put…blind faith into
“Me, I see the market slowing – right before my eyeballs. Rapid deceleration.”
When you say rapid deceleration, what sort of % price drops do you actually see? (Translation? What color is the sky in your world? The fact is that prices are rising right now. You can’t deny the data, can you?)
Steve:
“It is so esasy to get 15 to 20k a month with a very small grow up that wont be noticed by bc hydro and you will never get caught. ”
OK, a pound goes for what, maybe $1500 – $2000? So, $20k month means 10 pounds per month, right? And a plant produces how much weed? I don’t know, but let’s say 8 ounces (1/2 pound per plant). Gorw cycle has to be three months. 10 pounds per month means 30 pounds per grow cycle, means 60 plants, means that’s not a small grow op. (If my numbers are off please show some alternate math – should be fun!
)
Also, we run across grow ops in sales, but nowhere near as many as you’d think, and inspectors are good about finding them.
Black Kettle:
“yes, only Garth sells fear…..no other “profession” sells fear…lol”
Ironic that you post that right after newcomer wrote that ” it is worth noting that fear is the number one seller for almost any new-and-opinion outlet. It seems to be a natural human instinct to buy it.”
However, since I pointed that out about Garth, let me ask you: do you think I sell fear along the lines you outlined? You can’t find any examples of that, can you? (BTW, like the name. Is it pot call kettle black based, or Washita based?)
I actually tuned into these guys to get the bullish perspective and now they’re complete bears:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker
Where should I go for the alternative point of view? AC, any suggestions?
64 was me.
There was a report on CNN yesterday saying that 1 in 4 US homeowners who bought within the last few years (saw it on TV, so forget the exact time period) are underwater. It’s probably on their website somewhere.
58, When did “Transylvania” host the Olympics?
Here’s the link to the 1 in 4 US homes underwater:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/24/business/econwatch/entry5760111.shtml?tag=cbsContent;cbsCarousel
Lots of FUD. Gold is telling us the truth.
What is FUD?
DaveD – what is your opinion of the local RE market?
FUD = Fecking Ugly Dumps (on the market, that is). And tons of them selling too, WoW, seriously, I just got my autoupdates… tons selling, lots over asking.
FTB,
Whaaaat? They didn’t? But that’s where we’ve booked our winter vacation next year because someone told me they had. We also just bought a time share AND a 1-bed condo there for the same reason!!
A little justice for US homeowners:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
FUD is variously Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt, or F***ed Up Data, or other things.
Sorry, didn’t see the question – obvious bubble, correction prevented by cheap rates and the powers that be shifting heaven & earth to prevent it. Who knows when it will correct? It will probably take longer than anybody is happy with (me included) just on Murphy’s principle.
Wow, Rob, you know a lot about growing marijuana!
SC 27
My thoughts are if you can afford the mortgage (regardless whether the property is overpriced in your opinion), and you happen to find something you like, then consider going after it. (Why would you go after a product that will deflate in value)
This is a very dangerous and probably the dumbest statement I have heard. I have a better piece of advice if its overpriced it’s not worth it and should be avoided. This is the type of logic that most Vancouverites are using. This is the fearmongering that is published in the media “Buy now or be priced out forever”. It is false don’t worry prices will correct or earnings will adjust. If people can have a better existence with a different zip/postal code they will leave. People for the most part aren’t stupid they do what makes sense and if prices rise they will do what they need to do. Invest elsewhere.
All I can say about Rob’s numbers for grow-ops is that I suspect he knows a lot more about the industry than he lets on… Or just knows how to google and did a few minutes research. Production numbers sounds bang on, and anyone contemplating it should also know that the grower doesn’t make anywhere near 2000/lb. If you also retail it sure, but not wholesale. It’s just too easy to do to be a get-rich-quick scheme, and the last thing you want to do is encroach on some of our home-grown bad boys turf. The only way it can work fairly risk-free is on a very small scale, supplying a small and closed group, and then the take isn’t as high. The big money is made by the business-men who move it. Peons on the production end and the retail end don’t do nearly so well, and take most of the risk.
Based only on my googleing, my news perusal, and a friend who knows some people I wouldn’t care to.
78 ’tis I.
“Production numbers sounds bang on, and anyone contemplating it should also know that the grower doesn’t make anywhere near 2000/lb. If you also retail it sure, but not wholesale.”
BS. You can get up to 2000 in a tight market but 1400-1700 is the usual range. Retail is much, much higher and largely in the US.
The so called ‘peons’ on the production end are salaried new immigrants, but the production is controlled by guys who think nothing of owning a half dozen homes with grow-ops at any one time.
This is a huge business, and the police are hopeless.
Chip:
$1400-$2000, doesn’t really matter. Steve posited $20k per month from a small grow op. Not likely.
I’ve had my share of run ins with pot growers and seen some pretty impressive grow shows. One thing I can vouch for – its not easy money. 40 – 80 plants per room is not a part time vegetable garden out back. The stuff can grow so fast you can actually hear it gorw, and it will transpire enough water that you have to really be on top of ventilation and mold. I know, I know, it sounds like easy money, but the people I’ve seen doing it were generally (with a couple notable exceptions) chronically short of funds.
So what? This is a stoner blog now? Grow-ops- sheesh!
Currently high prices are driven by rates. Stop.
Rates will rise with a general economic recovery. Stop.
Then house prices will be sustained by rising employment. Stop.
Then in about 7 years they will “crash” again. It has always beem thus.