November 29 StatsUpdate
Inventory for REBGV and FVREB attached and detached was 17,416, of which 5,605, or 32.18%, were over 90s; inventory is lower than last week, over 90s are higher. For the REBGV the numbers were 10,872, 3,313 and 30.47%; inventory is down, overs 90s up. For the FVREB the numbers were 6,544, 2,292 and 35.02%. Lower inventory, higher over 90s, same as last week.
REBGV detached and attached numbers for last week were 752 new listings, 305 price changes, and 667 sales for a sell/list of 88.7%.
10,872/(667*4.25) = 3.84MOI. Sell/list is up, but so is MOI.
FVREB detached and attached numbers for last week were 421 new listings, 198 price changes, and 362 sales for a sell/list of 85.98%.
6,544/(362 *4.25)= 4.25 MOI. Sell/list is up, but MOI is down in the Valley.
Combined detached and attached numbers for last week were 1,173 new listings, 503 price changes, and 1,029 sales. Sell/list was 87.72%. 17,416/(1,029*4.25) = 3.98 MOI. Sell/list is higher, but the MOI is also higher.
For interest’s sake:
-14% of all sales went over list (that’s a strong mumber).
-the highest % over list was 21% (about $85,000)
-the highest $ overlist was approx. $150,000 over (14%)
-the biggest underlist by $ was approximately $1 million (12.5%)
-the biggest underlist by % was 45% ($60,000)
First chart is REBGV, second is the Valley, third is combined.
Rob’s Report Generator
Data for File: SalesNov292009REBGV.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 667 | $667,687.86 | $649,446.89 | -$18,240.96 | -2.02% | 49 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 402 | $467,399.04 | $457,724.78 | -$9,674.27 | -1.84% | 40 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 259 | $984,655.54 | $953,327.09 | -$31,328.45 | -2.09% | 60 |
Data for File: SalesNov292009FVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 362 | $432,739.69 | $422,414.77 | -$10,324.92 | -2.41% | 60 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 145 | $285,460.70 | $278,663.10 | -$6,797.60 | -2.38% | 54 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 200 | $549,692.80 | $536,895.47 | -$12,797.32 | -2.35% | 58 |
Data for File: SalesNov292009REBGVFVREB.csv
| All Properties | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 1029 | $585,033.59 | $569,577.48 | -$15,456.12 | -2.16% | 53 |
| Attached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 547 | $419,170.42 | $410,258.70 | -$8,911.71 | -1.98% | 44 |
| Detached Properties | |||||
| Sales | Average List Price of Sales | Average Sales Price | Difference ($) | Difference (%) | DOM |
| 459 | $795,129.29 | $771,875.41 | -$23,253.88 | -2.20% | 59 |
72 comments
“the biggest underlist by $ was approximately $1 million (12.5%)”
It looks like the extremely high end is having reduce price — $11.3 million home reducing by $1 million.
“the highest % over list was 21% (about $85,000)”
The lower end is still commanding a premium
Thanks Rob.
Inventory is noticably lower.
Sales/MOI – up. This is the story de jour, imho. That said, this market is marking time (productively), so still too early to call a definitive inflection point.
Larry comments below (is Larry right, is the market changing?):
Neighbourhood market nuance, strikes similar to watching Keats pass by. From the ship’s deck you might view Keats and other islands as just another piece of rock with trees. It is the nature of islands. It is the nature of neighbourhoods! Alone neighbourhood statistics lack drama and yet, they have elements such as sale prices, list prices and volume numbers that like those islands – slip quietly into the horizon. Yet, in aggregate, our neighbourhoods contain pieces that complete a picture of the Vancouver Real Estate Market.
In recent past days some neighbourhoods started exhibiting numbers that appear contrary to continuing real estate hype hear, hear and hear.
Consider the West Vancouver Detached real estate market during the past 30 day period of October 29,2009 to November 28,2009. By all appearance, West Vancouver is on the same cruise along with North Vancouver and other areas of the city.
In this 30 day period West Vancouver experienced sales dropping from Sept/Oct’s 78 to Oct/Nov’s 47. Median Sold prices were down from Oct/Nov’s $1,426,500 to Sept/Oct’s $1,345,000. There were 115 price reductions out of a Total Listing count of 472. Added is that during this Oct/Nov period, nineteen listings were canceled compared to Sept/Oct’s five.
Dream on, Larry. This is the winter. Things are supposed to slow.
But Newcomer, why is MOI rising? Listings are down too.
Amazing market! Even during the traditional slow down, the market is still roaring! Better buy before the Olympics is the mantra I am hearing. I cannot wait until the Olympics are over…
Larry is wrong. Sell list still high. MOI temporary increase due to Christmas season.
Bless Larry, but I get the impression he’s on autopilot here. His prose is purple, and his graphics are pretty much a textbook example of how not to meaningfully express data.
WoW (?), read Larry’s post again and tell me what the trend he’s describing actually *is*. I don’t think there’s any meat on them bones.
Hmm, Turkey, I dunno.
That’s a pretty sharp slowdown in those markets, and a marked decline in average prices.
That said, I AGREE, it could be seasonal/noise, so we need more date.
I guess I’ll shut down analysis until late January, as everything between now and then can be (legitimately) seasonal impact.
Happy Holidays all.
methinks the pumpers are holding their breath
please! please make it go up!
BS, I hope you don’t count me in the pumper camp! I’m critical of Epic Pronouncements of Imminent Demise these days, but only because I think the bear case won’t need much trumpeting when the time comes.
Being a nosy neighbour, I had to check out the open house yesterday that was right beside me. The house was pretty much what I expected…small, dated, and many $$$$.
I got speaking with the agent and I was rather shocked at how candid the agent was about their views on the market.
1. Market is overpriced and people are crazy for buying at these prices
2. The agent is waiting for the other shoe to drop (and so will prices)
3. Prices are absolutely unsustainable
4. The effects of the recession are still to be felt in RE in Vancouver
5. Foreclosures are growing and will continue to grow
6. Vancouver is not immune from fundamentals
7. Why would anyone buy in this market when you can rent cheaper
8. Much of the runup can be blamed on the pumpers and the gov’t (CMHC)
9. People are going to be in a world of hurt when interest rates rise
10. Cameron Muir is a nob
Very interesting 11 – thank you so very much for sharing.
is anyone else hearing anything similar?
Olympic Madness redux:
We have just moved into a penthouse rental unit for $1400 per month as a sublet
until August /10 and an option to renew for a further 2 years
The former tenant rented the unit and furnished it (not Ikea) and advertised
it for rent as an Olympic suite asking $7K per month for min 3 months
there were no takers and only a few inquiries. When the tenant could not
carry both the Olympic suite and her own suite in the same building she offered it to us for $2400 per month.
We went directly to the landlady (a long term buy & holder) and offered $1400 (unfurnished) based on our good rep and solid financials. Our previous rent was $1800 per month for a smaller space with a larger deck on the fifth floor (alley views)
Sitting here looking out at a 270 degree North view with a large balcony
and 2 parking spots……. life is good!
After the Olympics there will be a lot to choose from rental wise…….
BS
Thank you for sharing. Is it your view that rents are declining?
I too plan to give notice and change my rental in the Spring – any suggestions on timing? I think I’ll give 3 months notice on Feb 28th, to get a new place by June 1st…if I find the perfect place one a month early, I’ll just carry two rentals and take my time moving…or do you think I should shoot for May 1st?
How do you see the rental market unfolding this Spring?
To cheer you up Wow,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVGpzEzb_9g
You can start at 0:40
Unless you prefer to hear him say of the unfurnished market, “a huge collapse is coming March next year.” In which case, start at: 2:23
That’s only 4 months away.
Newcomer = Wow
Rob outed him in the last thread.
So number 12 Anon and number 14 Anon… are you the same person? If so, you sound an awful lot like Wow. And sometimes Wow goes by Anon as well. Do you see the problem with remaining anonymous? It’s hard for us.
Can I help you pick out a blog name? You could go with:
Dunno
Skeptic
Mous
Anywho
V-Shaped Recovery
…. it could be anything.
@11 “Not Much of a Name” — I call BS. The agent laid out every bear argument out there?
19
Agree! Even contrarian agents will not give the entire show away. They have food to put on the table after all – or is it Mercedes lease payments to make
Posters here are interested in hearing stories from the trenches – true stories. Not made up ones about Chinese immigrants paying off their house in 3 years, or openly bearish real estate agents, etc
Purp – 19 and GR – 20
I know it’s hard to believe. Howver, I heard what I heard. It shocked me. I have no way of proving it so believe it or not.
22
Have a name of the supposed bear agent? Do you have the address of the place for sale? Very easy to track this realtor down if you have that basic information….
“11 Not much of a name Mon, Nov 30, 2009 | 9:25 am
Being a nosy neighbour, I had to check out the open house yesterday that was right beside me.
I got speaking with the agent and I was rather shocked at how candid the agent was about their views on the market.
1. Market is overpriced and people are crazy for buying at these prices
2. The agent is waiting for the other shoe to drop (and so will prices)
3. Prices are absolutely unsustainable
4. The effects of the recession are still to be felt in RE in Vancouver
5. Foreclosures are growing and will continue to grow
6. Vancouver is not immune from fundamentals
7. Why would anyone buy in this market when you can rent cheaper
8. Much of the runup can be blamed on the pumpers and the gov’t (CMHC)
9. People are going to be in a world of hurt when interest rates rise
10. Cameron Muir is a nob”
The realtor told you all that? Especially your #10 point. The place must be empty and had a lot of time on his hands.
Since he is such a pessimist, did you put an offer for 70% off the listed price? I am sure he is willing to accept the offer given his bearish stance of the market.
But thanks for sharing us a fictional story.
“3 Anonymous Mon, Nov 30, 2009 | 6:39 am
Larry comments below (is Larry right, is the market changing?):
In recent past days some neighbourhoods started exhibiting numbers that appear contrary to continuing real estate hype hear, hear and hear. ”
————————————————————–
We are approaching Xmas and things tend to be slower than usual due to seasonality and doubt it’s due to a ‘crash’
Rob’s #’s still show the market is strong, especially given the time of year. Selling over lists is a good example. If the market is really over valued, why are being still bidding up these properties?
The lack of inventory is definitely a worry if I am a potential buyer. There is really not much pickings, and any good product coming on will be snapped up right away.
I predict if inventory doesn’t substantially increase, then the next step is prices WILL increase.
Thanks SC, could be.
Interesting that Larry points out lower prices are the norm (whether they are above or below the ask price is another matter) in the areas he mentions (other than Kerrisdale).
Disregard Larry – have to agree that may have adopted the bear lense, made a case for it when the market turned downward, and is sticking with the message despite the bounce
Sure I’ve got the address of the house and the name of the agent, however since I live next door, I’ll take a pass.
Yes the place was empty and I didn’t see much traffic go by.
I don’t know if pessimist would be the right word, realist maybe. Sure I could have put in an offer at 70% of list, but I’m sure my neighbour would laugh at it.
A 17:
You are not very good at this. WoW is an uberbear. That means he sees everything as a sign of market decline. I’m a bear too, I’m just not crazy. That is why I said current numbers are hot for the time of year (and that goes for MOI too). WoW would never say something like that. WoW would say, “What do you think Rob, do these numbers point to a crash starting now?” or (under an alias) “I just lost 3 million dollars flipping houses, so me and all my friends are selling.”
WoW and I have been saying predicable things for about three years now. You should be able to tell us apart.
GR/26, the bounce took everyone (many traditionally bullish commentators) by surprise, so by itself, it’s no reason to disregard Larry.
NMOAN/27, I’ve had similar experiences with realtors. At the last open house I went to, I got the usual nostalgic blather (“Back when I bought my first condo in xxxx, it seemed like it might as well have been a million dollars.”) After I said, bluntly, that “seemed like” and “actually costs” are very different things, we had a much more objective conversation.
#24
I wouldn’t hold your breath for increase in prices. There will be plenty of inventory once the olympics are over and we don’t see the huge rush on people willing to pay our stupid prices for second rate dwellings.
You talk about the bears being on the extreme. Man take a look at the man in the mirror you are an uber bull. The bottom line is that no one knows for sure what will happen as I have said there is a more likely scenario and one that needs lots of promotion and government backing.
The bigger the bubble the bigger the pop. Keep blowing air into this one…
Disbelief
Good points. But when you say that no one knows for sure what will happen….with rents at historic lows relative to prices, does this provide any clues going forward?
30 “Man take a look at the man in the mirror you are an uber bull…”
And all this bullish commentary from someone who witnessed the California debacle. It is one thing to be a pumper when you have never experienced a crash, but it is quite another to be a pumper when you have seen first hand how illogical the current situation is in another locale. If you are still a pumper after that, you really are sticking your head in the sand…
Again, don’t worry about 24’s commentary. There is an absence of local knowledge and some armchair analysis several thousand kms away….
Tale of two or three cities. Portland and Seattle are down to flat, even with stimulus and over here in Vancouver, BC it’s another story altogether.
I am waiting for the US style 8k (soon to be 16k) incentive for first time buyers to be implemented here in Canada. Then, I will transfer all of my assets offshore, take the money and buy because prices will go even higher then.
Besides, if the market does really crash, the government will be too busy with bankruptcies and foreclosures that it will take years for them to catch up to me. Good times for several years with my granite countertops and the pride of ownership 
If I go under, they can come after me – I have no assets
Anonymous 5:
“But Newcomer, why is MOI rising?”
They’re higher than last week. That’s not the same as rising. 3.98 and 4.25 is low, in case you forgot.
Anonymous 17:
” Newcomer = Wow
Rob outed him in the last thread.”
Nicely done! Of course, what really happened was that I equated “homeowner”s ip with WoW. Newcomer was never mentioned. The question is, are you actually WoW? (Yes, sometimes someone who shares WoW’s IP talks to WoW
)
NMOAN:
“Sure I’ve got the address of the house and the name of the agent, however since I live next door, I’ll take a pass”.
Understandable. He probably swore you to secrecy and explained that repeating what he shared with you in an open house conversation could get you….killed. You know, state secrets and what not.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the list that surprises you so much:
“1. Market is overpriced and people are crazy for buying at these prices”
Anyone reading this blog knew that real estate here is over-priced because its out of whack with fundamentals. The realtor who maintains the blog has written that many times. However, to say that people are crazy for buying at these prices either indicates that the realtor didn’t want to debate you or doesn’t understand real estate (your choice). Someone who transfers equity from one property to another and takes advantage of low mortgage rates to get more for less (quite possible in this market) isn’t crazy.
“2. The agent is waiting for the other shoe to drop (and so will prices)”
Who isn’t? Have you not been paying attention to the news? Lehmann Bros, sub-prime, credit crunch, bailout, etc.? Everybody’s waiting for the next shoe to drop. It surprises you that someone says that out loud? You should tak to another person. You’ll go two for two on that.
“3. Prices are absolutely unsustainable”
Again, most people on this blog recognize that, including the realtor who maintains the blog. Another realtor who seems to think that way is often quoted here as well (Larry at YatterMatters). Its not surprising that people think that. What confounds people is why the market refuses to conform to apparent logic.
“4. The effects of the recession are still to be felt in RE in Vancouver”
I’ve said essentially the same thing here by remarking that the current recession has largely bypassed us and doesn’t compare to past recessions. Unless the wider recession really is over (and who wouldn’t have taken a one year recession if it was offered last year?) it only stands to reason that we’ll feel more effects.
“5. Foreclosures are growing and will continue to grow”
Yup. They’ve grown from sweet bugger all to bugger all.
“6. Vancouver is not immune from fundamentals”
The only people who say it is are bears setting up straw men. When I first said we were out of whack with fundamentals (and that was years ago now) I was forced by rabid bears (I hadn’t really expereinced them until I blogged that) to admit that no, Vancouver is not immune, long term, to the laws of economics. Aside from Bob Rennie, who else says we are?
“7. Why would anyone buy in this market when you can rent cheaper”
Obviously the realtor (if he said that) doesn’t understand real estate. Renting has been cheaper for some people for years, but not more lucrative. Renting is not cheaper for everyone. That’s obvious.
“8. Much of the runup can be blamed on the pumpers and the gov’t (CMHC)”
OK, in case you didn’t already know where I was going, I call BS on you too. CMHC controls part of the market, and was forced to loosen up by competitors. Prior to the competition they were just raping insurable borrowers the old fashioned way (“Laugh louder and you won’t hear them scream”). They aren’t big enough to make the market run up on their own. The money comes from somewhere else. They just sell the insurance. Pumpers? As in, the individuals who hold out for more money when they sell their homes? (Wait, I remember now, those guys are “victims”).
“9. People are going to be in a world of hurt when interest rates rise”
Wow. There’s a newsflash. I wonder why VHB never thought of that. He could have called it a mortgage gap. And to think that a realtor would actually see that.
“10. Cameron Muir is a nob”
The giveaway is that the realtor would have known how to spell knob.
So, yup, I call BS on you too. You either made it up or are easily impressed.
GR 20:
If agents are so sly why wouldn’t a contrarian agent say to NMOAN “list and sell now, we’ve just entered record price territory and you’ll cash in. I’ll put you on the mailing list and in 12 months we’ll buy your house back for 1/2 price and you can keep the tax free profit, because interest rates are going up up up! You’ll own free and clear!” Sounds like a good listing presentation to me. In other words, it seems you assume all realtors have the same interests, which they clearly do not have. A truly contrarian agent should be making a killing right now by doing exactly what you say he shouldn’t – putting all his cards on the table. (Who was that contrarian agent that used to come here but moved to Palm Springs or something?)
SC:
“I predict if inventory doesn’t substantially increase, then the next step is prices WILL increase.”
I’ve got a dirt cheap apartment in MR for you to reno and flip…
Hint: if the realtor said “knob”, he’s British. If he said “nob”, he’s American.
#36, I rarely see people from the UK use the “k” variant of the word in that context.
Apparently three-quarters of “The Mark” sold out this weekend. Now is that three-quarters of the building, or three-quarters of this “phase”?
Something that struck me recently about the “renting is cheaper than buying” argument – I’m definitely willing to downsize when moving from being a renter to an owner, and I would imagine so are many other people.
Blueskies #13: what neighborhood is this penthouse in? I wonder what the rent will be after Aug/10..?
some good analysis below
http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/11/canadian-real-estate-goes-wacky.html
anon#38
where the old Pacific Press building
stood on Granville now a concrete residential building
We signed for a minimal 4% increase
each year so ultimately $1450-$1460 per month
and then$1520 in the last year………
After the Olympics there will probably
be a glut of furnished rental places available
some in rather nice locations
Our old landlady was disappointed to see us go
she had to lower her asking rent by $100 to attract a tenant…
FT Buyer you split hairs on almost everything I write.
Will this satisfy you?
VD shouts downstairs… honey, how do you spell knob when you say something like ‘that guy is a knob’?
Mr. VD (FROM BRITAIN) says, “k. n. o. b”.
VD: Is there any other way to spell it?
Mr. VD: Whaaa? Like door knob, you’re a knob…
VD: Like your bell end. You’re a knob.
Mr. VD (laughing now): Yeah. k.n.o.b. That’s it.
And that’s it FT Buyer… it’s knob. And Chinese manufacturers have maintained intellectual property on everything they manufacture and every other freakin’ thing I say from now on I actually mean!!!!!!!!!! Sheesh! Are you sexist buddy? What gives? Do you do this to your (ex)(presumably) wife?
Relax, VD.
To explain it more simply… FTB is such a knob, he doesn’t even realize there is a silent ‘k’ in there.
From today’s Globe and Mail: “After a stunning rebound, the Canadian housing market already looks mildly overvalued again”
Before I was an owner I used to think that the main stream media was totally biased and gave a bullish perspective on RE.
Now I really believe that anymore. Which is weird.
It’s amazing how your investment position clouds your interpretation of the data. Maybe that’s a testament to how little information there is in the data (at least about short term changes in prices/sales).
AC:
What do you mean the “k” is silent?
BlueSkies… Congrats!… and ‘yikes!’ – clearly I don’t get out enough… I didn’t realize PacPress had been razed to make way for yet more boxes… had some good times in there… (sighing nostalgically, HP glances skyward, “Where are you now Harvey?”…) I digress…
AC/42+RC/44+VD41…
!!!
And next – a ‘blind’ pot pourri of links/today’s best for those who enjoy connecting dots…
GlobalMacro Big Picture Stuff….
http://tinyurl.com/yjxddc2
http://tinyurl.com/ygv7thn
http://tinyurl.com/yhk6rto
http://tinyurl.com/yhyo9og
Feeling cynical&cheeky?… You’ll enjoy these tales of shameless hypocrisy/greed…
http://tinyurl.com/yz2akds
http://tinyurl.com/yzrzoem
http://tinyurl.com/yzmmtvy
http://tinyurl.com/yewu2wd
Last up… some partisan but poignantly felt commentary on the Afghan ‘Surge’ infomercial being hosted later today, by BarryO…
http://tinyurl.com/ydmlkb4
http://tinyurl.com/yge6jr9
Rob, you forgot the
Without it, it speaks volumes.
VD:
What do you mean by, “And Chinese manufacturers have maintained intellectual property on everything they manufacture?”
Pearl #43,
So true. One’s position clouds one’s judgement. That’s why I have totally capitulated (but so far only in spirit). It’s hard to be a bear and see everyone rush to buy a condo. Makes for itchy fingers on the trigger. But then again, it was hard to be a bearish owner… itchy fingers too.
That was only the second post of yours that I’ve responded to this month, so no need to feel like I’m attacking you personally. Apologies if you felt that way.
Rob – 35
I don’t know about you, but generally I’m not one for giving out my address blindly on a blog. I’m sure it would be the same for many here.
Believe what you want, I know what I heard.
Finally, pardon me for a simple spelling mistake. I guess the standards are much higher than I can attain on your blog.
I have a friend I work with that was to retire and finish his realtors licence, no I am not going to tell you his name, this is a blog, not a court of law. Some realtors do see an overpriced market, and well lets face it, everyone knows Muir is a nob, so is Pasterick and even Ozzie sometimes. They are trying to sell their product, but we don’t have to believe them. We can think for ourselves.
It’s OK, FTB. I’m over it.
Let’s make friends. You know how obsessed I am by the Chinese Miracle? Well, they seem to have done it again… this time solving a mystery in Floreeda:
http://tinyurl.com/create.php
Please click on it. It’s totally worthwhile even if you can’t understand a word…
That link didn’t work.
Try this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i5FlC1MpkE&feature=player_embedded
Nope. How bout:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7i5FlC1MpkE&feature=player_embedded
ThankYou so much for that, VD!.. I really needed a laugh today before BarryO’s ’surge’ infommercial (see my 45 prior – if you missed it earlier, that’s because it was temporarily ‘gobbled’ by the blog machinery)… As for your link – my money is on the second CGI/graphic/narrative! Which reminds me, all you Chinese lurkers who hang here – where’s the best place in YVR for a humble Canuck to learn Mandarin? Seriously.
How is the market? Has it changed? Anyone have any updates?
Thank you.
Two absolutely derelict fix-me up please houses I was looking at had offers on them. One deal fell through and the other building failed inspection. But if you had seen these places you wouldn’t be able to believe that they could find offers in under a month. My verdict? Still hot.
Here an interesting post from another blog which I have quoted below:
http://vancouvercondo.info/2009/11/return-of-the-condo-lineup.html#comments
”
39 X G Lady Says:
December 1st, 2009 at 12:58 am
I have been reading this blog since about 2 years ago, give or take. Everyone had been bitching about how the Vancouver owners are going to get screwed over very soon by the bursting of the housing bubble. I thought you guys were finally right when the prices dipped 1 year ago.
Now it’s going back up again…quite aggressively. I personally know a handful of people (professionals in their late 20’s planning to have a family) with enough down available to buy for their own use instead of for investment/speculation like before. I think the current market today is actually more solid than the market from a couple of years back because of this difference. Vancouverites are just not giving up in buying. Different groups of buyers keep showing up to keep the market from dying. First the speculators now the young professionals.
When I bought my condo, I thought it was at the market peak. I did regret buying it at such a high price for a few months until recently I spoke with some new neighbors with a similar floor plan, the price they bought it at is just more ridiculous than mine. In other similar units, the rent ($1500/month) is enough to cover the entire mortgage payment AND strata fees. I’m glad that for the $1500/month that I’m paying, I’m owning this place instead of using that as rent. ”
———————————————————
Funny after her post, a whole bunch of readers flagged her post with a negative rating. Perhaps cause it was too…’positive’?
Ya, interesting times. Reminds me of when Nortel busted through a hundred bucks. I didn’t understand that either, I was the lone man out on that one too. Just could not square the circle.
This market is driven by a lot of first time buyers getting in at 2.25% VRMs. That plus down payments from their parents = affordable monthly payments. What that has to do with long, long term values, I don’t know.
As for anecdotals, I know one young man who just won’t pay 400K for a 1 bed with balcony doors that absolutely won’t close properly. He’d die before asking his parents for money for a leaker. So young people are on both sides of the fence, that’s for sure.
I like the vid, VD!
Now here’s something that those who like using US economic data to form their Vancouver predictions may not enjoy so much :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8389301.stm
“The housing figures, from the National Association of Realtors, provided the best hopes for growth, showing sales agreements 3.7% up on the month. That left the number of agreements 32% higher than a year ago.”
FTB/61…. Nice one… saw it, too – although don’t forget, it’s based on contracts signed vs. deals closed/money in the bank… So, we’ll see. But a valid reference nonetheless.
Well, BarryO’s infommercial is over…. connoisseurs of stagecraft will doubtless have appreciated the WestPoint backdrop and the orchestral flourishes at the end of the monologue (Halls of Montezuma, Anchors Away etc.)… Strictly speaking – not BarryO’s most inspired performance…. But a nice try, though (with more than a little help from Axelrod/Plouffe/Favreau et al).
Bottom line? The high-end of YVR SFH real estate just got a boost. As did the SunshineCoast/GulfIslands…
58 SC
They flagged it because they did the math, and called her bluff. Try and read all the comments next time, and/or cite appropriately.
http://tinyurl.com/y87395r
HP 62.
You might like the novel “Interface”, an early Neal Stephenson effort. Not his best but about a topic you seem to enjoy. His latest (Anathem) is genius.
HP 64
Maybe healthcare on the states sucks but we seem to ignore how efficient is our healthcare here in BC. Personal experience, I wanted to get a scan for a sinus problem here and guess what? I have appointment on March 17th 2010 , that was the closest date they could get. (but they put me on the cancellation list, just in case!) Now sure it is not an emergency, but please 4 months wait for a sinus scan? And paying $100/month for healthcare does not sound like free to me together with medication costs which are way higher than what you pay in most developed countries I know. You would be surprised to know that in a middle sized american city there are more scanners and medical equipment than in the whole of Canada… but who cares we are still living in the best place on earth, right?
Interesting, cold winds blowing.
How is the RE market faring? I hear its quite slow on the westside?!
CFP/65… Cheers for recommendations!… I must confess – I find it difficult to make time for fiction these days… but given the topic and reviews like, “ “A Manchurian Candidate for the computer age.” —Seattle Weekly”, “Interface” is now on my reading list… That’s the funny thing about memes, CFP – one day they’re totally under the radar/in stealth mode, the next – everybody’s talkin’ bout ‘em… Accordingly, here are two segues I just know you’ll enjoy…
[Lindorff/PublicRecord] Barack Obama: Manchurian Candidate Version 2.0
http://tinyurl.com/ybkzdsy
[Dowd/NYT] Who’s Sari Now? …”Desirée Rogers, who has also been asked to testify Thursday, has been cruising for a bruising since telling The Wall Street Journal in April: “We have the best brand on Earth: the Obama brand. Our possibilities are endless.” …
http://tinyurl.com/yklvhbn
As for RE and GlobalMacro… here are two timely pieces – make of them what you will…
[Fiderer/HuffPo] Why Obama Won’t Do What’s Needed To Deal With The Mortgage Crisis
http://tinyurl.com/y8zad46
[G&M/ROB] In deflation-era Japan, a ‘life of minus’
http://tinyurl.com/ycuojsa
Which brings me to GG/66 above… yep, GG – there’s no denying it – health care in BC could be a lot better (like France/Germany’s, for starters)… our system still handles trauma well, but if you’re not ‘critical’ or your situation is ‘elective’ you could be waiting a long time. All in all though, ‘rationing’ based on clinical need is always preferable to ‘ability to pay’ – could be worse though, have you ever had occasion to try ‘health care’ in the UK!?? Sometimes ‘the best place on earth’ has more to do with being ‘the least worst’ than the best, per se… and the next piece ties in rather nicely with that thought…
[Mallick/UK Guardian] It’s embarrassing to be Canadian now
http://tinyurl.com/ya9u72y
Last up – two ‘Moments of Zen’…
[SteveBell/UK Guardian] Exit Strategy
http://tinyurl.com/yepfd2m
and on a lighter note… (of special interest to Indo-Canadians and Monarchists)….
http://tinyurl.com/ykftx8j
GG,
Just watching the CBC right now. They’re running a story about how dissatisfied Canadians are with wait times, lack of family physicians, etc. OK. Now the cat is out of the bag, let’s see them do something about it.
However, this does lead me to a “real estate” idea. Why not buy an apartment in Scottsdale, right next to the Mayo Clinic, furnish it and advertise it as a comfortable home away from home while you get your medical tests and procedures done in days. I think it would work OK now and work better and better every year as the population ages and Canadians get even worse healthcare. Plus, you could probably buy a place for 30K.
[...] from ‘Not much of a name’ at robchipman.net 30 Nov 2009 9:25 am [...]
NMOAN 50:
Actually, you do know about me. My name, picture, cel phone number, email and business and home addresses are on the internet. If I had a land line it would be there too, on 411.ca.
I think you should also be able to surmise that I support your right to maintain your privacy (look at my posts on MLS for evidence). In my opinion your personal information is yours to do with as you like. You can share it or not.
What’s funny is that you say “I can’t identify the realtor because then people would know where I live”; the implication is that you’ve said something controversial that could cause some sort of damage to you if you were connected to it. That’s just crazy, and it feeds a foolish fear that we live in a dangerous city populated by violent crazies. We don’t.
What’s more, you haven’t reported anything controversial, and even if you had who exactly would extract vengence? The realtor cabal?
If you’re worried about nutbars going after you there are three things to consider. First, you’re probably not that attractive to a nutbar in the first place (if you are, don’t correct me – I’m already a member of stalkers anonymous and I can’t afford another…um…slip). Second, a nutbar can already find you; he might not find you through this blog, but he can find you some other way. Last, I’m all over the internet, and nutbars don’t stalk me (and please don’t prick my balloon, because I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me!)
In short, the world is still pretty safe, and you can express your opinions without a lot of fear. If you want to maintain your privacy, fly at ‘er. When we discuss privacy in regard to the MLS, pipe up in the side of privacy protection. But please, for the love of Mike, don’t flinch when you protect your privacy and cite a non-existent threat. Just stand on your own two feet (or don’t – its a free world, after all, but if you flinch I reserve the right to make fun of you a little)
What about the points I raised? The realtor didn’t say much that was controversial, but if he really said those things he’s a bit dim, don’t you think? I mean, “Foreclosures are growing and will continue to grow”…? So what? They’re still so low they aren’t effecting this market, and they won’t, period (V-Dog’s husband spells that “full stop”, btw, but Craig Ferguson thinks it should be spelled “exclamation point” – none of which have silent “k”s, fwiw).
Spaceman:
“Some realtors do see an overpriced market, …”
With record prices do you think it would be, say, more or less than 50% of realtors who see an overpriced market? Do you think the buyer agents, for example, are finding all kinds of smoking deals for their clients? Do you think any listing agents are saying some variation of “Wow, well now, buddy. I mean, how much higher can it go? Low rates, unreal valuations, Olympics almost here. Get out while the getting is good!” ? Like I said – nothing NMOAN said (I mean, reported) was controversial.
V-Dog 57:
How does a house “fail” an inspection? How does a fixer upper fail? How does a derelict fixer upper fail? Do the buyers say “OK, I see what I’m buying but I’ll cross my fingers and hope I’m blind?” Remember, I’ve sold a fair bit of certifiable junk in my time (when, oh when will a guy like WhyBuy give me a crack a well priced, clean and vacant westside dream listing? Can it only be a dream?) Junk is junk. Why even look if you expect it to be non-junk? (I know, big subject, fodder for another post, but its a pet peeve of mine).
HP 62 – are you saying what I think you are? I thought I missed the boat when the Canadian $ was still low. I had some US clients who made ouot well shorting the US dollar by buying Coal Harbour places. Time for a repeat? Maybe….
German Guy:
Healthcare here is a tough subject. Its hard to get the real info, and anecdotal stuff isn’t so good. I tore off my bicep, and got surgery quite quickly. Two elderly family members needed surgery (aneurysm – abdominal and brain) and both had great help. Then there are stories like yours. However, if we debate the issue its pointless. Suggest an improvement and you’re likely to be labelled a Bush loving private insurance hack bent on gutting our birthright and installing an American style system while peeing on Tommy Douglas who, as everyone knows, is the world’s greatest Canadian. Welcome to Canada!
SenorCaballero/71… “The Realtor Cabal”….
That’s damn catchy!… I like it! I think I could pitch that… Great working title!
Let’s see… High Concept financial thriller set in North America’s ‘bubbliest’ housing market pits iconoclastic/blogging Realtor against ‘evil’ industry cartel in a deadly, suspense packed ‘fight to the finish’… Will he live? Will he get the listing? Will he get/keep the girl?… Stay tuned.
Hmmm… Kevin Spacey does Caballero… Fieffer for the love interest… ??? Jason Reitman to direct? I say we shop it to Universal (loads’o dosh following the ComCast acquisition!)…