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	<title>Comments on: Oct. 11 Stats Update</title>
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		<title>By: Whybuywhenucanrent?</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115780</link>
		<dc:creator>Whybuywhenucanrent?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:06:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115780</guid>
		<description>robertscreek (181) wrote
 
&gt;&gt; But we could all borrow 90% and buy more real-estate with the equity
&gt;&gt; draw down,sort of fractional lending but in real estate-would’t that keep it
&gt;&gt; going ten more years?
 
robertscreek -- I think if you run the numbers that your debt always increases faster than your appreciation.
 
S&#039;pose you buy a nice Yaletown condo for $450K.  Your monthly cost of ownership is about $4K, right?  (Interest, Tax, Insurance, Repairs, Association Fees?)  And you can rent it out for $2000/mo.  (that&#039;s $1900/mo with a 5% vacancy rate)
 
Here&#039;s one for sale at $450,000, 9th floor, rents for $2000/mo.  At &quot;Pacific Place Landmark&quot;
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/1428447563.html
 
And to confirm the rental value, here&#039;s another suite in the same building listed at $2200/mo.  22nd floor, with sunroom (definitely a better product)
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1422891657.html
 
So as owner you pay $4K/mo, and take in $1900/mo.  Not pretty.  To have price appreciation cover your loss, you&#039;d need to go up $25K each year.  That&#039;s a little 5.5% annual appreciation.
And that&#039;s to break even.  When you sell you&#039;ll pay mortgage closeout fees, Realtor fees, possible 2 months rent returned to tenants, possible month or two of vacancy, etc.
 
Call me a skeptic, but I don&#039;t think we can expect 5.5% annual appreciation in perpetuity.   Plus you&#039;re locking up $10K of your own cash in the place every year (above and beyond the $25K you&#039;re throwing away outright).
 
If we just get, say, 4.5%, then you&#039;re losing $5K/yr.  Compounded.  If we get, say, -4.5%/yr for a couple years, then you&#039;re losing $55K/yr.  Compounded.  (Though we can&#039;t sustain loses like that long-term, of course, it would level out and head back up at some point.  Like it&#039;s doing in Japan).
 
Your thoughts, your numbers?
WBWUCR&#039;t&#039;13?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>robertscreek (181) wrote<br />
 <br />
&gt;&gt; But we could all borrow 90% and buy more real-estate with the equity<br />
&gt;&gt; draw down,sort of fractional lending but in real estate-would’t that keep it<br />
&gt;&gt; going ten more years?<br />
 <br />
robertscreek &#8212; I think if you run the numbers that your debt always increases faster than your appreciation.<br />
 <br />
S&#8217;pose you buy a nice Yaletown condo for $450K.  Your monthly cost of ownership is about $4K, right?  (Interest, Tax, Insurance, Repairs, Association Fees?)  And you can rent it out for $2000/mo.  (that&#8217;s $1900/mo with a 5% vacancy rate)<br />
 <br />
Here&#8217;s one for sale at $450,000, 9th floor, rents for $2000/mo.  At &#8220;Pacific Place Landmark&#8221;<br />
<a href="http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/1428447563.html" rel="nofollow">http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/reb/1428447563.html</a><br />
 <br />
And to confirm the rental value, here&#8217;s another suite in the same building listed at $2200/mo.  22nd floor, with sunroom (definitely a better product)<br />
<a href="http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1422891657.html" rel="nofollow">http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1422891657.html</a><br />
 <br />
So as owner you pay $4K/mo, and take in $1900/mo.  Not pretty.  To have price appreciation cover your loss, you&#8217;d need to go up $25K each year.  That&#8217;s a little 5.5% annual appreciation.<br />
And that&#8217;s to break even.  When you sell you&#8217;ll pay mortgage closeout fees, Realtor fees, possible 2 months rent returned to tenants, possible month or two of vacancy, etc.<br />
 <br />
Call me a skeptic, but I don&#8217;t think we can expect 5.5% annual appreciation in perpetuity.   Plus you&#8217;re locking up $10K of your own cash in the place every year (above and beyond the $25K you&#8217;re throwing away outright).<br />
 <br />
If we just get, say, 4.5%, then you&#8217;re losing $5K/yr.  Compounded.  If we get, say, -4.5%/yr for a couple years, then you&#8217;re losing $55K/yr.  Compounded.  (Though we can&#8217;t sustain loses like that long-term, of course, it would level out and head back up at some point.  Like it&#8217;s doing in Japan).<br />
 <br />
Your thoughts, your numbers?<br />
WBWUCR&#8217;t'13?</p>
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		<title>By: Whybuywhenucanrent?</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115778</link>
		<dc:creator>Whybuywhenucanrent?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:47:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115778</guid>
		<description>Rob (77) wrote
&gt;&gt; What say you?
 
Hi Rob,
Last time we debated this we agreed to disagree.   I don&#039;t have any further comments.
 
I did do a quick survey of random Vancouver Realtors from Google, and, to their credit, they weren&#039;t as schmarmy as I recall them being the last time I looked a year or so ago.
WBWUCR&#039;t&#039;13?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rob (77) wrote<br />
&gt;&gt; What say you?<br />
 <br />
Hi Rob,<br />
Last time we debated this we agreed to disagree.   I don&#8217;t have any further comments.<br />
 <br />
I did do a quick survey of random Vancouver Realtors from Google, and, to their credit, they weren&#8217;t as schmarmy as I recall them being the last time I looked a year or so ago.<br />
WBWUCR&#8217;t'13?</p>
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		<title>By: Rob Chipman</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115638</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob Chipman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 06:13:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115638</guid>
		<description>V-Dog:

Sad story indeed, but is she really a victim of foreclosure? Was real estate a bad move for her?  She had a $45,000 house with $400/payments, and a second property. Unfortunately, she lived beyond her means.  That had nothing to do with her real estate. She ran up credit card debt, had a marriage break up and became unemployed.   She&#039;s  more properly a victim of those three things, or of spending more than she earned, than of foreclosure.  If she hadn&#039;t owned real estate she&#039;d be in the same position, only more in debt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>V-Dog:</p>
<p>Sad story indeed, but is she really a victim of foreclosure? Was real estate a bad move for her?  She had a $45,000 house with $400/payments, and a second property. Unfortunately, she lived beyond her means.  That had nothing to do with her real estate. She ran up credit card debt, had a marriage break up and became unemployed.   She&#8217;s  more properly a victim of those three things, or of spending more than she earned, than of foreclosure.  If she hadn&#8217;t owned real estate she&#8217;d be in the same position, only more in debt.</p>
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		<title>By: vomitingdog</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115619</link>
		<dc:creator>vomitingdog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 03:51:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115619</guid>
		<description>So sad:
http://tinyurl.com/yfzevgp

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So sad:<br />
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/yfzevgp" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/yfzevgp</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: robertscreek</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115614</link>
		<dc:creator>robertscreek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 03:13:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115614</guid>
		<description>161 Alexcanuck Sun, Oct 18, 2009 &#124; 11:10 am          

&quot;RC:You just hit upon the problem… Yes, he could sell and have those gains as real money, but EVERYONE can’t. As long as you leave it tied up and we all pretend it’s actually worth that this could maintain itself indefinitely, but the idea in many cases is to cash out at some point&quot;
But we could all borrow 90% and buy more real-estate with the equity draw down,sort of fractional lending but in real estate-would&#039;t that keep it going ten more years?Or diversify buy stocks etc-now you still have your real-estate and your paper profit can play the market-so how do we know clever Canadians didn&#039;t use that extra 10% they borrowed this year to buy cheap stocks or discounted Florida Condos-after all net worth is up so they didn&#039;t spend it all on widescreens

</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>161 Alexcanuck Sun, Oct 18, 2009 | 11:10 am          </p>
<p>&#8220;RC:You just hit upon the problem… Yes, he could sell and have those gains as real money, but EVERYONE can’t. As long as you leave it tied up and we all pretend it’s actually worth that this could maintain itself indefinitely, but the idea in many cases is to cash out at some point&#8221;<br />
But we could all borrow 90% and buy more real-estate with the equity draw down,sort of fractional lending but in real estate-would&#8217;t that keep it going ten more years?Or diversify buy stocks etc-now you still have your real-estate and your paper profit can play the market-so how do we know clever Canadians didn&#8217;t use that extra 10% they borrowed this year to buy cheap stocks or discounted Florida Condos-after all net worth is up so they didn&#8217;t spend it all on widescreens</p>
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		<title>By: Alexcanuck</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115603</link>
		<dc:creator>Alexcanuck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 01:39:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115603</guid>
		<description>176:
I like home-ower as well, or homemoaner</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>176:<br />
I like home-ower as well, or homemoaner</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Alexcanuck</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115602</link>
		<dc:creator>Alexcanuck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 01:38:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115602</guid>
		<description>Nice find, VD.
Yeah, that&#039;s what I&#039;m talking about! I&#039;ve got nothing against a certain degree of pride of ownership and spending more than you have to (but can afford!) to live in a nicer place and/or neighborhood, but we have people who have no money or life other than their mortgage payment. If they didn&#039;t think that by paying more interest than they can afford they would &quot;win the lottery&quot; and get rich they&#039;d never dream of paying that much for a roof over their head. Years of kraft dinner (actually, the discount brand. Real KD is too expensive right now.) all to enrich realtors, builders, banks and lucky flippers who guess right. Wait until all those boomers start to cash out... Unfortunately, bubble economies are very expensive even for those who stand back, and then are forced to help pay for the bailouts.
Meanwhile, my beer-making day is almost done. Mmmmm, beer!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice find, VD.<br />
Yeah, that&#8217;s what I&#8217;m talking about! I&#8217;ve got nothing against a certain degree of pride of ownership and spending more than you have to (but can afford!) to live in a nicer place and/or neighborhood, but we have people who have no money or life other than their mortgage payment. If they didn&#8217;t think that by paying more interest than they can afford they would &#8220;win the lottery&#8221; and get rich they&#8217;d never dream of paying that much for a roof over their head. Years of kraft dinner (actually, the discount brand. Real KD is too expensive right now.) all to enrich realtors, builders, banks and lucky flippers who guess right. Wait until all those boomers start to cash out&#8230; Unfortunately, bubble economies are very expensive even for those who stand back, and then are forced to help pay for the bailouts.<br />
Meanwhile, my beer-making day is almost done. Mmmmm, beer!</p>
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		<title>By: vomitingdog</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115599</link>
		<dc:creator>vomitingdog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 01:21:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115599</guid>
		<description>Homedebtor instead of Homeowner. It kinda has a nice ring to it?!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Homedebtor instead of Homeowner. It kinda has a nice ring to it?!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: vomitingdog</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115598</link>
		<dc:creator>vomitingdog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 01:20:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115598</guid>
		<description>He&#039;s kinda an interesting guy:
 
&quot;Real Estate and Impoverishment (6/26/2008)

The wealth effect of real estate has often been underlined, particularly within the &quot;ownership society&quot; framework. The assumption is that home ownership provides financial stability and an asset that can be borrowed against in time of needs (e.g. medical emergency, funding college, etc.) or to cash out and fund retirement. However, it can be argued that in the current context real estate is more a cause of impoverishment than of wealth since the asset has essentially been tapped out. For many, homeownership has become a very relative term as they &quot;own&quot; a huge liability instead of an asset. The main impoverishment effects caused by homeownership are:

Income diversion. A large share of the family income is diverted to sustain a non-performing asset that has limited utility and, outside asset inflation, does not provide any real return. Thus, what is spent to cover a liability is not used for consumption or savings. Another sign of impoverishment is the strategy of many homeowners in view of rising mortgage payments due to rate resets and rising utility bills. Many will keep up the payments as long as they can (reducing their consumption) in the hope of keeping their home, thus exacerbating the income diversion effect.
Destruction of savings. Concomitantly with the income diversion effect, many are digging into their savings (if any), their retirement funds or other assets (e.g. jewelry) to keep up with their mortgages. This simply delay the inevitable if the mortgage load is too high comparatively to income. The outcome is even worse; a homeowner (homedebtor) would end up losing the house anyway in addition to severely deplete his existing non-housing assets.
Additional debt. In some cases where income diversion is pronounced and where savings are not available, a homeowner will contract additional debt either to keep up with debt obligations and to cover living expenses (food, energy, clothing, etc.).

All these factors are a real source of impoverishment, undermining the financial stability of many families in an illusive attempt to keep up with the &quot;debt is wealth&quot; paradigm. You end up no longer a homeowner, but &quot;homeowned&quot;. This impoverishment effect will not stop until home prices are the equivalent of renting.&quot;
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>He&#8217;s kinda an interesting guy:<br />
 <br />
&#8220;Real Estate and Impoverishment (6/26/2008)</p>
<p>The wealth effect of real estate has often been underlined, particularly within the &#8220;ownership society&#8221; framework. The assumption is that home ownership provides financial stability and an asset that can be borrowed against in time of needs (e.g. medical emergency, funding college, etc.) or to cash out and fund retirement. However, it can be argued that in the current context real estate is more a cause of impoverishment than of wealth since the asset has essentially been tapped out. For many, homeownership has become a very relative term as they &#8220;own&#8221; a huge liability instead of an asset. The main impoverishment effects caused by homeownership are:</p>
<p>Income diversion. A large share of the family income is diverted to sustain a non-performing asset that has limited utility and, outside asset inflation, does not provide any real return. Thus, what is spent to cover a liability is not used for consumption or savings. Another sign of impoverishment is the strategy of many homeowners in view of rising mortgage payments due to rate resets and rising utility bills. Many will keep up the payments as long as they can (reducing their consumption) in the hope of keeping their home, thus exacerbating the income diversion effect.<br />
Destruction of savings. Concomitantly with the income diversion effect, many are digging into their savings (if any), their retirement funds or other assets (e.g. jewelry) to keep up with their mortgages. This simply delay the inevitable if the mortgage load is too high comparatively to income. The outcome is even worse; a homeowner (homedebtor) would end up losing the house anyway in addition to severely deplete his existing non-housing assets.<br />
Additional debt. In some cases where income diversion is pronounced and where savings are not available, a homeowner will contract additional debt either to keep up with debt obligations and to cover living expenses (food, energy, clothing, etc.).</p>
<p>All these factors are a real source of impoverishment, undermining the financial stability of many families in an illusive attempt to keep up with the &#8220;debt is wealth&#8221; paradigm. You end up no longer a homeowner, but &#8220;homeowned&#8221;. This impoverishment effect will not stop until home prices are the equivalent of renting.&#8221;</p>
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	<item>
		<title>By: vomitingdog</title>
		<link>http://www.robchipman.net/oct-11-stats-update/comment-page-4#comment-115597</link>
		<dc:creator>vomitingdog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 01:17:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://robchipman.net/blog/?p=613#comment-115597</guid>
		<description>AC,
 
Here&#039;s what you&#039;re talking about in a graph:
 
http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/jpr_blogs.html
 
Scroll down to:

Blowing Bubbles: From Technology to Commodities (3/14/2009)
</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>AC,<br />
 <br />
Here&#8217;s what you&#8217;re talking about in a graph:<br />
 <br />
<a href="http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/jpr_blogs.html" rel="nofollow">http://people.hofstra.edu/Jean-paul_Rodrigue/jpr_blogs.html</a><br />
 <br />
Scroll down to:</p>
<p>Blowing Bubbles: From Technology to Commodities (3/14/2009)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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