Comments on: On The Verge Of Setting New Records

By: observer

observer — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:19:44 +0000

I think there are two opposing forces: one being the drop in interest rates, second being the general uncertainty in the economy (unemployment, V versus W versus no recovery). Given that our current interest rates are lower than at the peak in 2008, you might think that prices should go higher than the previous peak in 2008. However, it is probably fair to say both future expectations about the economy and current conditions of the economy have deteriorated since pre-peak 2008 times so this cancels some of the efficiency of the “stimulus”.
If you ignore the change in economy expectations and conditions, it is possible to calculate the present value of the lowered interest rates and put a cap on how high the second peak can go, assuming no major changes in economic conditions and expectations.
I would say a best case scenario is that the stimulus reaches its full potential and prices increase a bit more beyond the olympics, after which they will start to decline, assuming the economy does not recover in a V shape.
A worst case scenario is the economy doesn’t recover in a V shape and markets pick up on this early on, in which case, the correction may come as early as this holiday break.

By: Gloria

Gloria — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:49:44 +0000

Today we (my hb and I) received in the mail a letter from RBC informing us that as of Jan 5 2010 the interest rate on our line of credit is going to be increased by 1%, “due to market conditions” and is not a reflection of our credit history. Since we owe big fat zero on our line of credit , I don’t care. But those who took money for DP from LOC, and I know a couple, will care a lot.

By: Turkey

Turkey — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:32:52 +0000

Prions. You know, like the ones in your head.

By: Rob Chipman

Rob Chipman — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:20:23 +0000

Turkey:

C’mon now. Of course they’re going to deny the conspiracy and say that when scientists use the word “trick” its not really a trick, but let’s face it – denying the conspiracy simple confirms that it is a conspiracy. They’re busted!

I always knew it was a hoax, and I always knew that George Soros was behind it. I’m going to go buy a Hummer and run over some Priuses… Prium…Priii….whatever!

By: Rob Chipman

Rob Chipman — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:57:28 +0000

HP:

Too many great links. I especially liked the politico one on “serious people” wondering if they misjudged Obama. Luckily the Ben Stein post comes in handy – as a “gimlet eyed” observer of politics I chuckle at the way a liberal who finally recognizes the obvious looks upon it as some sort of important accomplishment Who can really be surprised that a guy who says he’ll bring the troops home, kill Osama Bin Laden deader than McCain will, can’t answer whehn life begins because “it’s above [his] paygrade, and who also says he’s at his best when he’s doing Jesus’ work turns out to be a…politician. (Don’t get me wrong – I like the guy and hope it all turns out well for him and that he ends up being everything everyone wanted him to be, but for right now its not health care, global warming or Aghanistan. Like Bush Sr. said so many years ago – “It’s the economy, stupid”).

By: Turkey

Turkey — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:15:11 +0000

Global-Warming-REAL-Hack-Is-A-TempestInATeapot-ForTheLoveOfChrist-TakeResponsibilityForYourLifestylePeople!

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/the-cru-hack/

By: asalvari

asalvari — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:00:43 +0000

Global-Warming-SCAM-HackLeak-FLASH
http://tinyurl.com/ydow9wt

By: FTBuyer

FTBuyer — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:59:38 +0000

#58, I lived there for 30 years.

By: Turkey

Turkey — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:47:18 +0000

HP,

A video response to the Tyee article: http://tinyurl.com/kpnzfa

By: Híppos Purrós

Híppos Purrós — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:52:07 +0000

A very interesting ’harvest’ this morning!…

First up and decidely on topic – a CalcRisk compendium entitled, ‘A Few House Price Forecasts’…
http://tinyurl.com/ybdknv9

Much closer to home, a disturbing Tyee piece – ‘Welcome to the ‘Burbs, Meet the New Homeless’…
http://tinyurl.com/yfpyuem

And for those of you interested in GlobalMacro… try this piece from CNN/Fortune re: the ‘vig’ on UncleSam’s borrowings, ‘$4.8 trillion – Interest on U.S. debt’ (‘und counting’)
http://tinyurl.com/yj4xezk

Which – metaphorically speaking – ties in rather nicely with PaulKrugman’s NYT think piece, ‘The Big Squander’…
http://tinyurl.com/y8sn2jr

And finally (for the other ‘die-hard’ macro/political junkies here) - three very good pieces dealing, respectively, with US health care, Afghanistan and higher education… Have fun connecting the dots.

http://tinyurl.com/yee4szt

http://tinyurl.com/yaxswmf

http://tinyurl.com/yeanr3u

That last link is an example of ‘politics by other means’ - with a lead illustration that will look increasingly ‘familiar’ to YVR denizens in the run-up to Feb2010…