Short Stats
I apologize to everyone for being late and for delivering less than the optimum product, but I am really busy this week.
Combined inventory has shot up to 15,746, of which 5,150, or 32.71%, are over 90s.
REBGV numbers were 9,824, 3,111, and 31.66%
FVREB numbers were 5,921, 2,039 and 34.44%
Combined new listings last week were 2,275, price changes were 465 and sales were 766, for a sell/list of 33.67%
REBGV numbers were 1,448, 287 and 520 for a sell/list of 35.91%.
FVREB numbers were 829, 178, 248 for a sell/list of 29.92%
171 comments
for a sell/list of 33.67%
a sell/list of 35.91%.
a sell/list of 29.92%
good numbers!!!
Rob – thanks for the stats – we’ll take ‘em however we can get them!:)
What do U make of the short-term trend? Possibly just ‘noise’ or a harbinger?
Agent Will stat’s show 7297 listings for the REBGV…
Chipman’s shows 9,824 for the REBGV…
That is a big discrepancy…no?
agent will is full of _____
Is anybody going to attend the grand opening of “Lumen” on Saturday to see if it’s all chihuahuas and lattes or lonely agents and tumbleseed?
# AC
I am late to the discussion, but totally agree with your comments. The enterprise is decent in my opinion and it might work. I hope for them that it will. Here is my take:
The focus is on real estate price appreciation in the next coming 5 years, I would prefer rather a solid cash flow analysis and base the investment on that rather than hypothetical price appreciation of 5.1% each year for the Phoenix area as their model suggest. Anything that bets on price appreciation rather than cash flow is speculation in my opinion.
On a cash flow basis, their properties they already have there are paying 8% yield. This is not bad, but the spread is 4% more than a 10 year treasury bill which given the risky nature of this business is not a very high premium.
The major concern for me would be that property management is subcontracted to some company in phoenix which they have selected. Had those properties been managed by Bob himself , I would have felt more comfortable. But I guess he is not into that anymore and he is not us citizen. So, too many middleman in the trust line.
Anyway, I am looking more into the multifamily rather than a portfolio of residential houses as I feel it is less hassle to manage . I am going there next month so I hope to get a better picture of things.
I didn’t see you at the presentation, where were you
)?
I think people are worrying too much about the middlemen thing in Rob’s brother’s project. Basically, the costs of upkeep in the US can be really low. Especially with the California/Arizona penchant towards undocumented workers and the lack of rain, rotting out the buildings. It sounds like a solid, slow ‘n steady investment to me. Not a get rich quick scheme but if you’re lucky, housing may rebound sooner than you think. Especially if something stupid, like a panic to have hard investments rather than USDs take hold of the local folk.
It doesn’t seem that much different but somewhat more of a hassle than a dividend-paying stock. Like a bank or utility, which would be much easier to sell, if you wanted to do something else with your money halfway through your self-imposed commitment. Also, I think there are more tax benefits to dividends rather than real estate investment, if I remember correctly.
# VD
property manager is the key to the success of such a venture if you are not managing it yourself and are 2000km away. Those costs can be low but they can also bacnkrupt you as well. It all depends who is managing your property.Otherwise I agree, it is a sound business idea and it is not a get rich quick scheme. The guys looked trustworthy and I wish them success.
Re #7 and #8
The problem with investing through widely held private companies it that the promoters usually grind any potential profit with fees. For example, 8% of your principal is gone immediately to finder’s fees (see page 20 of the prospectus) and I expect that the salaries paid to the principals will substantially grind any potential profit (usually the exact fee is clear, but it is not in this particular OM). Not only that, but administering this type of deal is a nightmare (audited financials and reporting to investors is expensive unless you have a lot of properties and a lot of investors to cover the overhead).
I looked at doing this myself, however, I could never get to the point where we thought we could pay ourselves and get a decent return to the investors to compensate them for their risk.
All that said, I’m not saying that it is a bad investment, I’m just saying I doubt you are going to get rich and there is a real risk that you lose money.
P.S. The real estate market here is going to be affordable again, I just don’t know when. It is inevitable. My guess is that we see price drops heading into May of this year (or arguably June, depending on how you want to measure the timing).
Have a look at Fisgard capital if you want to invest in Real Estate, they boast an average return on investment of 11% over 15 years, (it was higher until recently) currently their yield is 6% which is still a heck of a lot better than T-bills. They are located in Victoria, and have a proven track record. They do short term construction financing, at high rates for building loans. I am not associated, but a friend has a bunch of money tied up with them and says it works for him. My point is there are easy liquid ways of playing the real estate game as well. Rob you must have a few horror storys of bad renters???
come on tell us the down side too….
Good chuckle on Colbert last night:
“I don’t think that the President understands that in America, consumption equals jobs. And these days, the banks aren’t lending us the money we need to buy the things we don’t need to create the jobs we need to pay back the loans we can’t afford.”
vdog: “… housing may rebound sooner than you think. Especially if something stupid, like a panic to have hard investments rather than USDs take hold of the local folk.”
It is hard to imagine this happening. The locals are already indebted up to their ears and have no means to take on the additional debt needed to purchase RE — it is why they’re in the current mess! If a panic emerges w.r.t. USD, what little savings the locals have will go into things that do not require one to go into additional debt. My guess is that it will simply be some combination of other currencies, commodities, and gold — in fact that appears to be what has been happening this past year.
I head that the sell/list today is below 20% – can anyone confirm?
I’m also hearing realtors are meeting with sellers in droves and we should expect an avalanche of listings for February (I’m not sure about sales, these could be strong too, not sure).
Anyone hearing anything?
13 Anon, Fish Taco, Taco, Rational Observer, Wow, insert any name here
Nobody is watching the day to day sales. Didn’t you say that Agent Will was reporting multiple bids and strong list-sale ratios? Why ask something that contradicts what you found out? Why waster people’s time?
And WHO do you actually hear these stories from? WHO? Your local garbage man, the boob at the coffee shop, your gas jockey?
#14,
if the guy asks for anything, give it to him. his wife is bugging him every minute of it, this site is the only place he can find his comfort.
#3,
Agent Will doesn’t include the nasty parts of town in his stats, like Whalley, Hastings-Sunrise, the Knight St. trucking route, Chinatown, Gastown, East Broadway etc….
Hence, the discrepancy.
Some may call that elitist, I think it just makes good sense.
16
You are kidding right? I hopefully hear your sarcasm…
But if you are not, that is some pretty arbitrary boundary drawing, which erodes his credibility in my mind
January so far is the warmest on record… Proof of global warming?
NO! Weather, not climate. AKA noise.
Sell/list is 20% for one day… Proof that the crash is here?
NO again, for the same reason.
Noise is for entertainment only.
GG: Thanks for your input. I agree, absent an expectation of capital gains I don’t think it looks quite good enough. Let’s see what the next foreclosure wave brings.
As to the need for a local property manager, there are very strict rules on what you can do yourself down there. It’s apparently fine to hire an illegal under the table to do the actual work, but the person filling out the paperwork had better be a citizen. Something like that anyway. At some size one could set up an in-house manager, but that’s a ways off.
I asked directly why the focus on SFH’s rather than multi-unit. I think the rather ambiguous answer showed up the emphasis on capital appreciation, which I don’t buy. Another significant leg down and then we are talking, but not yet.
“Combined listings have shot higher…”
Robert Chipman
Yup – Rob said it all with that comment. This defines the new market we are in.
“Nobody is watching the day to day sales.”
“s bugging him every minute of it, ”
that’s why we need minute by minute market coverage
real time stats on a need to know basis……. oh yea … and free too!
Of course I’m kidding.
Sorry Will
the market is tanking
Agent Will:
Yes, only time will tell. Until something affects the supply of money/buyers out there or the supply of homes increases greatly we’re going to continue this trend we’re on. Current trend? I’ve been through two multiple offers this year… and I am not alone in this. S/L was about 50% today and 33% of those sales were at or above asking (indicative of multiple offers). That is a very big number and a cold reality buyers face today.
The big question is: Where are all the listings? We need about 5,000-10,000 more to slow this market down.
Looks like sell/list is spiking up again and the market is hot. 33% above list, so multiple offers abound.
This market looks like it is set to roar to new heights and beyond this spring. Could we go to 30times average income? Why not.
The realtors are telling us there are no listings and too many buyers. MOI must be wonky, and Rob telling us listings are piling on must be…I dunno what it is, just confusing I guess.
Market hot?
Will indicates that we need an increase of 5,000 to 10,000 listings more to slow down this market.
Is this true?
Heck, maybe Will’s right. Give it a rest already.
Look fellas
The goose is cooked
Let it alone for a while, it will come out brown and crunchy
That which cannot last forever…won’t
And this looks like the endgame is on
Grab a beer, root for the Colts, and keep an eye on the MOI as it goes through ten. You will hear screams in your neighbourhood.
Total listings increasing by 500 per week for the last 4 weeks.
Total downtown condos listings up 30% since the New Year.
I’d say sellers are heading for the exits.
“Grab a beer, root for the Colts”
I’m rooting for the Saints……go Drew Brees and Reggie Bush!
Did our resident schizophrenic have a rough day at KFC….?
huh:
I’m not sure what areas or dates Agent Will uses, but its probably unwise to compare my searches to his (I hesitate to call them “my” or “his” stats, since they come from the same source). Probably better to just compare my past to my current stats, and do the same with his. I know Agent Will and he isn’t manipulating the stats. There’s a valid reason why his numbers differ from mine, even if I don’t know what it is.
GG:
“property manager is the key to the success of such a venture if you are not managing it yourself and are 2000km away.”
A PM is critical when you’re far away, but as I’ve mentioned in the past, I’ve managed properties in Vancouver for people on every continent except Antarctica. Getting a good PM is critical, but that’s not the same as impossible.
Spaceman:
“Rob you must have a few horror storys of bad renters???”
Now and again (I’m remediating a grow op now, as a matter of fact) but 98.5% of renters are good if you do your due diligence. (Let’s face it, unless we stay in mum’s basement until she dies and we inherit the house, we’re all renters at some point).
Boombust on 01.27.10 at 9:41 am
Vancouver’s eastern suburbs are experiencing a slowdown in sales of all types of housing stock.
Particularly hard hit are the “ghost towers” near Coquitlam Centre and the Klahanie neighbourhood of Port Moody.
From Garth’s site (source attributed!:)
Any truth to this?
Anyone check out Garth’s “predictions.”
What a sham that guy is. After a 20% increase in prices nationally, he predicts a 15% decline. But lets not forget the fact that he predicted the same 15% in 2008 prior to the 20% increase. What a pansy.
Why bother writing anything at all. A 15% pull back is not even noteworthy.
Instead of “After the Crash,” maybe his next book can be “Real Estate Armegedon” where he note that prices will drop 5% in 2020 and outlines how you can profit from this “dire” event.
Too funny…
First up, a question for SenorCaballero that is simply too tempting for this wag (moi) to ignore… Does ‘remediating a GrowOp’ involve a process likely to contribute to climate change?…
Do tell!…
Slim pickings today - but the following rich media are well worth a listen/look…
[BBC WorldService BusinessDaily] China Crisis (Chanos explains why he’s ’shorting’ China)
http://tinyurl.com/ygdzf4u
[PBS NBR] Japan Deflation (segment starts @ 9:03 into clip)
http://tinyurl.com/yzpnwo6
Peter Schiller on Bill Good show this morning. 10:30.
The real economy in the States was NOT fixed, the real economic indicators are NOT improving, there is more trouble coming, the band-aids applied just hid the suppurating infection underneath and it’s gonna blow up again and worse. Available later today on the CKNW audiovault. I’ll try to link to it later, once it’s up.
AC:
I’m sure that he’s right. It begs the questions: what is a “real” economy, who fixes it, and how? Its clearly not something that government can handle – they may be able to avoid catastrophe (and so far they have), but how can they crete an environment where the US can rise again economically, especially when the challenges revolve around outsourcing and labour costs.
HP:
Contribute to global warming? How, by burning something? Or by the sheer volume of hot air traded between me and the miscreants?
Anonymous 31:
Lots of competition for rentals there, but they’re hardly ghost towers. Newport Quay, on one side, has turned into a great little micro-centre, and Capilano/Morrisey/Klahanie will do the same when the commercial catches up. For dense living those are great locales – lots of rec, green space and shopping right there. Great value to be had renting there right now.
“Anonymous 31:
Lots of competition for rentals there, but they’re hardly ghost towers. Newport Quay, on one side, has turned into a great little micro-centre, and Capilano/Morrisey/Klahanie will do the same when the commercial catches up. For dense living those are great locales – lots of rec, green space and shopping right there. Great value to be had renting there right now.”
…and the reason is…because a lot of them are EMPTY!
Off topic… If anyone is a Tim Burton fan, an animation fan, a Tim Burton animation fan especially, or just likes to see a stunning new talent’s first real project: Check out 9.
Just 9. Not Nine, not District 9, not Plan 9 or anything else, just 9.
http://tinyurl.com/cu4fbj
I was blown away. It is marvelous. Tim Burton was involved it, but I was very impressed by the way he seemed to be a true mentor on the project. In no way did he seem to be grabbing any credit.
Well worth a rent.
AC
I bought Corpse Bride last week and watched it. Enjoyed it – but thought xmas version was better – and visual dnot seem any different….given Avatar I’m thinking there has got to be some better stuff out there – how do I view 9?
Thx
Rented 9 over Xmas. It was OK, wouldn’t gush over it.
Avatar… Dances with Smurfs?
Just spent some time going through the offering memorandum as I was genuinely intrigued by the opportunity and have all but given up hope that I’ll find any rental properties with reasonable metrics around here any time soon. A few big turnoffs for me:
- There’s been close to 4 million shares already issued, and prices drastically lower than the current offering price (ie 2,000,000 at $.01/each!). I see no justification why new shareholders should be expected to pay 40x that amount (ie $.40/each). I can appreciate that getting in “pre IPO” should perhaps warrant some sort of sweetener (especially if the company has been creating shareholder value in the interim) – but this is a bit galling. The previously issued shares are grossly dilutive, and will act as a major drag on EPS for new shareholders. It’s akin to me saying that I bought 50% of the future earnings of a company for $1, but if you want to buy the other 50% you have to pay $40. Don’t think I’ll get many takers…
- Who receives the “Finders Fee’s”? Bill Chipman? If so, just seems like another way to siphon money out of the company. If I purchase “direct” do I get the finders fee? I’m assuming not.
- For a fledgling company with such a simple operating model (ie all day to day activities have been outsourced) I question the $130k in annual salary expense (with seemingly no guarantees that they won’t rise drastically next year). With only $750/month in revenues (at this stage) the salary expense is completely out of line, and even with a 500x increase in revenues will act as a major drag on company profitablity. While the principals of the firm may be good at what they do, their activities can be replicated part-time by a do it yourself investor (minus the overhead of the corporate structure and legal reporting requirements).
- Without a board that consists of a majority of independent directors what’s to stop management from increasing salaries (or finding other ways to siphon off funds) once the company is fully financed? Said in another way, as a minority shareholder how do I ensure management has my best interests in mind?
- I don’t see mention of any planned liquidity event? ie If I wanted to cash out my equity component at some stage, how would I do that? In the offering memorandum it’s clearly stated that the company may never become a reporting issuer, and therefore I would be unable to sell my common shares. It also doesn’t appear that there’s any clear plan around the payment of dividends (ie what payout ratio is targeted, and what would the effective dividend yield be?)
Anyways I’d love to hear Bill’s responses to these concerns – any chance you can get him to do a guest post on your blog, and respond to potential investor questions?
Sorry to rain on the parade – but I’ve seen way too many inexperienced investors get burned by these types of investments…
AC
I thought the storyline in Avatar was a…..5.5/10….but I thought execution was close to 10/10, including the amazing 3-d (without overdoing it), wonderful pace of the movie, amazing creativity and imagination….just wonderful…no, its not a great movie (at all) in terms of impact, and ya, could be charactarized as ‘dancing with smurfs (tall ones)”, but that said – what fun….as escapism for a brief period, it rocked, imho.
At the CFA dinner I just went to, lots of talk about how our real estate prices are just insane.
Let’s see what happens next.
i wonder.
Guest post Bill! Guest post Bill.
Thanks Warren. Yeah, numbers are leaving me a bit cold. Without huge capital gains I’m not seeing a business case there, and I really don’t think one should expect much if any gains for 5-10 years. Things are a mess.
Speaking of Bill, (the other Bill, the Good one) (Sorry!) CKNW is kinda messed up in their podcasts. I can’t find the segment. An “hour” downloads as 66 minutes, when you play it there are 30 minutes, and they’re the wrong 30 for what I wanted. Not much revenue from the past stuff, and possible embarrassment, so what self-respecting company would put money in that area I suppose…
Notwithstanding yesterday’s ‘JerseyShores’ pitchman routine (and no, I’m not referencing SteveJobs), the past 24 hours of the media cycle is of scant interest to most of us here… Except for one little jewel - and here’s a taste…
“Analysts say there is limited opportunity for youths to vent their unhappiness with dwindling social mobility, high unemployment, sharply rising university tuition and an urban planning process dominated by real estate developers.”
And where is that, you may well ask… Curious?….
http://tinyurl.com/ydmvqx4
PS – if you like your ’smurfs’ Latino, you will be disappointed to learn that UglyBetty has been cancelled… BreakingBad will return however, 21Mar…
ac this is worth a read, imho
http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/east-side-limb/#more-10442
Alexcanuck:
I actually don’t have much concern about the underlying business model. Hard to go wrong purchasing assets below replacement cost (even assuming $0 land cost) in an area with population growth. While $750/month isn’t a great rent, the fact that it rented quickly shows that the demand is there.
My concern is more that the odds seem to be stacked in the favour of insiders. I agree that Bill should be compensated for the effort he’s put in to get things to this point – but it’s been pushed to the point that it no longer looks like an attractive investment opportunity for people looking to get in now.
31 – those new areas around Coquitlam Centre are so strange. All this new, dense housing but so little activity on the street level. I wouldn’t want to live there for fear of being lonely.
47, I took the Millennium Line out to Burnaby a while ago and couldn’t help but notice all those fairly new towers clustered close to the tracks. Cast your eye around the immediately surrounding area and there’s virtually nothing apart from low-rise industrial units, truck depots, and courier distribution centres. Sure, you’d be close to the train into Vancouver, but I’m confused as to why people would want to live in these sorts of “neighbourhoods”.
FTB: They don’t want to live there, it’s just the first step on the property ladder to wealth and respect. Hang on a few years living on KD, then sell for vast profits and start to live the life you’ve always dreamed of. At 5% down how can you lose?
Looks like VD might be even more right than she thought and therefore more unhappy. Why reign in the housing market when not reigning it in makes more people happy:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/experts-podium/an-interest-rate-hike-this-summer/article1445523/
No rate hikes = house price increases as everybody leaves their 1-bed rentals to buy. 2010 will see house prices go up. By at least 5%-10%. Even this month will be a solid month. Wow, the sales you think aren’t there take 2 weeks to be posted, they may not show up until February. Then look out above!!!
PS: My old landlord is dying. Lemme take you back. He had a new build in 2008. It took him years to complete (thank you COV bureaucrats) and 15 months to rent all 12 floors. We were one of the first in and one of the first out after our 1-yr lease was up. Now his 1-bed units are half empty. Back to square one, baby. And he’s hurtin’. Where have all his tenants gone? Either to the 1-bed condo purchase in the sky at 2.25% interest rates or to rent the now cheaper units of those who’ve foresaken their units for the 1-bed condo purchase in the sky. Considering their rates won’t be reset at all this year and possibly a good schwack of next year… the housing market marches upwards and onwards! The last place in the Western world to do so, I believe. Unless in Oslo…
Caught red handed…
http://www.vancouversun.com/Vancouver+property+owner+charged+with+illegally+axing+trees+after+Google+camera+catches+removal/2495278/story.html
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=6060+Olympic+St+vancouver+bc+canada&sll=35.317366,-95.712891&sspn=66.231168,135.263672&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=6060+Olympic+St,+Vancouver,+Greater+Vancouver+Regional+District,+British+Columbia,+Canada&ll=49.231576,-123.189579&spn=0.006691,0.016512&t=h&z=17&layer=c&cbll=49.231481,-123.189591&panoid=XXROlrHvk8TJpiJh70K_zA&cbp=12,99.88,,0,10.5
And a “before” set
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ec6cQXN7sA4
50
Fantastic news! That means we will have at least a 10 year bull market despite all the predictions of the inevitable collapse!
Nothing like listening to all those doom and gloomers and experts about the inevitable collapse and sitting on the sidelines waiting to get into the market at “affordable” prices.
Looks like the good old government knows where its base of support is, and it doesn’t rest with renting prudent and patient savers.
That’s exactly right, Wolfie.
I feel like the biggest tool for actually thinking that massive amounts of debt is bad and that income was generated from productive sectors of society. Boy, was I wrong, and boy did it cost me.
Lesson learned. Next bubble, I am going all in, following the herd, and trusting my faithful government to bail me out if anything goes wrong. Screw critical thinking and using my brain – as someone said, red is the new black…
49, I don’t buy that. If you sell after prices have risen only to buy somewhere else in the same region then your net gain is effectively zero. If they were buying them as investments then surely they’d rent them out and live somewhere else. The people who both own and occupy these buildings obviously live there because they want to.
Yeah, debt doesn’t matter. We owe it to ourselves ,after all, so once we pay ourselves back we’ll have the money to pay ourselves, and enough left over to retire in style, and even if we don’t pay ourselves the government pay us out of our tax dollars. What can possibly go wrong with that idea?
Since we are paying it back with interest the more you plan to pay yourself back the richer you’ll be once you do pay it back, so load up on that debt. You can live like a king now, and even better then.
56:
I didn’t say it makes sense…
57
Its been working for Vancouverites for 8 years if we look to price to income ratios, and the amount of comparative debt they hold. Why not another 10 years? And yes, yes, the argument that the market must revert to economic fundamentals and eventually we have to pay the debt back means nothing if it goes on for another 10 years and people are waiting to buy at “responsible” prices and debt levels.
How long do you have to live before fiscally responsible approaches kick in? How long do you want to wait before getting back into the market? Another 10 years?
Every time the economy runs into trouble the government lowers interest rates. Each time there is a lower low. Our current low is 0.25%.
Better hope the economy does not run into trouble now.
Who cares if they lower it again, as another 0.25% will not really make a difference. If they maintain it at the current level, there is a market impact – the prolonged bull market.
VD/50… you know what will happen if you buy something!
56, hehe true
I’d love to buy, why not? I’d love to have a house and a backyard and two dogs, and take care of my house, and have bbqs with our friends and go to work and come home everyday pleased with myself. We have saved some money with hard work, we have zero debt on CCs, paid off student loans and cars … yet… how on earth can a couple with $110k combined income afford lowest priced house in Point Gray, like this one: http://bit.ly/c8Xajk
Who are those FTB’s for whom this house is ideal opportunity? In the USA rich and famous live in million dollar houses, and here – it is a first time buyer in a 100 year old shack. LOL That is all I can do, just laugh. And rent forever, I guess…
Gloria –
Easy — just rent this one instead
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/van/apa/1568167717.html
Why throw away $5 – $10K/mo in interest+tax+insurance+repairs when you can simply rent a place on the same street for $2250/mo?
WBWUCR’t'13?
Point Grey is a premium area, and $110K is about 2 average salaries combined.
The “ideal for first time buyer” in the description sounds like realtor speak for “bit of a dump, needs some work”.
A 92% PRICE GAIN IN A DECADE ISN’T A BUBBLE?
* Teranet released its monthly measure of Canadian house prices in November 2009 this morning and whereas it’s the monthly gain that gets most of the focus in the releases, the current record in the context of a longer run history merits our attention. This is Canada’s closest equivalent to the US S&P/Case Shiller measure of house prices, and it is currently only 0.1% off of its all-time record high (see accompanying chart). The gains are accelerating in recent months, and the December print is likely to firmly set a nationwide all-time record high.
* Nationwide prices were up 0.8% m/m in November (10% annualized). Vancouver prices rose the most (+1.9% m/m, 25% annualized) but even excluding Vancouver, prices were up 0.5% m/m, or 6.2% annualized.
* But the bigger point here is that unlike most other countries, Canadian house prices went down but didn’t stay down as a unique confluence of several lucky factors pushed the market sharply back upward. Whereas the national average resale price that is based upon MLS sales has been at a new record for a while now (and even so after adjusting for inflation), the Teranet measure is itself a hair’s width from a record high.
* Since the start of 2000, this measure of house prices is up 92% nationwide. As a tax sheltered class, the before-tax equivalent return on housing has blown most other asset classes out of the water. By comparison, US home prices climbed 105% from the start of the decade until the peak in 2006. See out piece “Is There a Canadian Housing Bubble?”, November 24th 2009, for further elaboration on price and volume measures including record renovation spending.
* Regionally, the decade long gains are as follows: Vancouver (116%); Calgary (120%), Toronto (66%), Ottawa (90%), Montreal (110%), and Halifax (85%). We do not buy the common assertion that only select markets are in frothy territory. All regions of the country have participated with hefty price gains over the past decade on the march to record nationwide prices. Call it what you want, we think it’s a bubble that faces downsides into next year once supply recovers further, variable and fixed mortgage rates rise materially, new mortgage product adoption rates level off after their introduction to the Canadian marketplace starting only three years ago (thus making Canada off-cycle compared to everywhere else), pent-up demand from the crisis period is becoming exhausted, and demand gets pulled-forward into current market circumstances only to leave a somewhat vacated market space in future.
The only way prices in Vancouver are going up any higher is if the BOC can figure out a way to give people negative interest rates.
Anywho, even if they didn’t raise rates for awhile prices can still plummet.
What is so premium about Poing Grey, except for the prices? The lots are small, houses very old and plain… From my point of view, it suits people who work at UBC, and that is why I like it. I watch quite often a TV show called Million Dollar Listings and it just hurts to see fabulous Malibu ocean houses sit still for months, if not years, while our 100 year old moldy and cozy – ideal for FTBs – shacks go over asking. If I won the lottery and had cash to buy, I’d chose California over MacKenzie Heights or Point Grey. Kinda makes me bitter, but – hey – as long as there are people who are going to pay, who I am to argue…. Still, I’d love to know where the money comes from. I haven’t seen a single movie star in Point Grey’s sipping Starbucks coffee, nor retired prime ministers or presidents. David Duchovny didn’t want to come back here for the life of him, that is how he was impressed with “the best place on earth”. So, who are those people who buy over asking? Why are they here in small and rainy Vancouver and not in sunny California – Malibu, Santa Clara, Santa – whatever? Something is special here, it must be… I agree, I’d just love to find out what.
And on the completely other end of pricing scale here is a real life story: I’ve got a couple of friends who accepted an offer for their 2 bdr condo in New West (385k), and guess what – the buyers did not qualify for financing. It made me wonder – what did these people – the buyers – think? How were they going to pay their montly payments when the interest rates go up 1%, let alone more? What did the RE agent think when he/she wrote an offer? Isn’t it still a custom to get pre-approved first and then go apartment hunting?
Its called mass delusion, Gloria. Baa Baa!
I’m loving hearing from Gloria. Where has she been all these long bullish months? (Same thing happened to my friend in Coquitlam Gloria… I wondered WTF too). There be strange beings out there all in a panic to buy.
Now onto my General Question for the blog.
What happened with the Olympia restaurant on Denman? Drove by it tonight, the guy has got his 5 Olympic rings and torch not only on printed on his door and awning but also lit up in neon. So did he get sued by Vanoc or the OOB (Other Olympic Bastards)?
Does anyone know how that lawsuit ended? If he lost, he ain’t listening. Now, as the Olympics approach, I can hear the barking of the police dogs from the living room window. The cops have moved them down to The Armoury for their Olympic Tour of Duty and they sound pretty keyed up to me. Must be ready to taste some of that Olympic Protester Red Meat. It’s too bad so many of those protesters are so skinny. At least that’s what the dogs’ll be thinking when they bite down.
Event Horizon in the Far, Far Distance/Ghost Rider/Red Deathrider,
Yes, I know, I know, I know. I’m keeping my finger off the trigger, but just barely. If I knew I could do it in time, I’d buy a poorly decorated place, whip it into shape (v. enjoyable) and then sell it.
FTB – 110K is almost the average salary of two FAMILIES. The average individual salary is certainly not 55K.
“Have a look at Fisgard capital if you want to invest in Real Estate, they boast an average return on investment of 11% over 15 years, (it was higher until recently) currently their yield is 6% which is still a heck of a lot better than T-bills.”
It certainly isn’t a “hell of a lot better” than stuff I own like PGF.UN, and I have a lot more confidence in oil going forward than RE. After tax even my bank preferreds do better.
good to see some of you at http://www.yattermatters.ca – another good analysis, this time on the westside – I encourage a look.
I’m eager to see Will and Rob’s stats in the days ahead….I’m so impatient!
but…is this the inflection point? has the trend continued? or has Will’s comment on a 50% sell/list on Monday strenthened through the week, highlighting a hot market?
time will tell
VD/73… “finger off the trigger”… Moi aussi – but as regards capital markets; good analysts are not infrequently poor traders… However, I did at least have the prescience to exchange a Toyota for a Ford last July…
So, if we allow that – under certain circumstances - consumer sentiment can, literally, ‘turn on a dime’, what are the odds that YVR RE may one day be as hard to unload as a Camry??? Say, what’s that I hear… somewhere in a distant armoury - barking ‘poochies’?… (DogHandler to Rex: Poochie want a chew?)…
And now for some Zen.
Quote of the Day…. NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg – “The bottom line is we don’t have any money”…
[NYT] Bloomberg Unveils a Grim Budget
http://tinyurl.com/yhvxh5a
Never mind NYC, how about that space program, eh!? (Puleez, say it ain’t so Noz!)…
[Orlando Sentinel] Ares Dead – 6BN Destined for ‘Commercial’ Rockets
http://tinyurl.com/yfy5txu
Which must be why nostalgic Californians are attempting to stake a legal claim on Tranquility Base (before the Chinese get there and hustle the goodies off to a Beijing museum)…
[LAT] Putting the moon in the state’s orbit
http://tinyurl.com/yelvtkd
The second episode of our weekly serialized account of a Vancouver homeowner’s experience of our RE boom has been posted at VREAA:
‘The Froogle Scott Chronicles: Mortgaging Our Souls In Paradise’-
‘Part 2: Up, Up, Up: Winning the Real Estate Lottery’
http://tinyurl.com/frooglescott02
“In the three years following the purchase of our house in the fall of 2003, its assessed value increases by 72%, or almost a quarter of a million dollars. This windfall changes the way I think and feel about money.” – Froogle Scott
“What effect does all of this distraction have on our city, our society? Froogle Scott generously shares his experience.” -vreaa
‘Rich Dad’ seminars deceptive: Marketplace
The seminars range from free one-day introductions to three-day seminars that cost $500 to longer courses priced between $12,000 and $45,000. Critics say the marketing of the series is aimed at upselling participants on the more expensive next level.
http://tinyurl.com/yjhgjub
How much do your neighbours owe on their mortgage?
Are people taking on too much debt? Take a look and see what you think.
No.18
Purchased by Geoffrey (all names have been changed) in April, 2004
Paid: $1,440,059
Mortgage: $1,275,000 (five years, 0.24% below prime)
Monthly payment: $6,555.17
In 2005, Geoffrey took out a second mortgage for $4 million (five years, prime plus 5%), secured by 200-plus acres of property north of Toronto.
http://tinyurl.com/yemwnqr
With phrases like “you’re richer than you think…” meaning we can HELOC you for more than you thought. Instant wealth is just that it comes and goes in an instant. Your home is not a piggy bank and if you think it is just remember what we did when our piggy banks were full. We broke them open and spent the contents.
Disbelief:
“Instant wealth is just that it comes and goes in an instant.”
True enough, but you forgot to add that the debt stays behind!
Westside and BC updated, fresh off the press…fyi
http://www.yattermatters.com/real-estate/bcrea-a-new-saw-in-town/#respond
“what are the odds that YVR RE may one day be as hard to unload as a Camry???”
We’re not going to be another Detroit. It will never be hard to find a buyer for Vancouver RE - just a matter of how much you can get for it. Those are two different issues entirely, although people pretend they’re not.
Well, patriotz, it seems you know stuff, so I have a couple of questions:
where does the money come from ? Why those who spend millions buy in Vancouver and not Malibu? And why is it that we don’t see any famous people lining up to buy 2000 sq.ft houses in, say, Point Grey? They are just as expencive as mansions in Beverly Hills, yet – no Britney, no Paris, no Brangelina… even our native “stars” like Pamela Anderson do not live here.
Haven’t posted in a while. Still haven’t bought a place. However, I’m still making money and now have approx. $750k in assets (liquid). It’s a really sad state of affairs that with that amount of cash/securities and making more than 100k a year, buying a Westside home, responsibly, is still far out of reach.
I’ve waited this long, so I guess I’ll just keep waiting. It has got to make sense some day.
Que sera, sera.
74,
http://www.payscale.com/research/CA/City=Vancouver/Salary/by_Gender
Median in Vancouver is $60K for a man, $47K for a woman
That’s $107K for one of each. Wasn’t that far off, was I?
The smart money has long since purchased in Vancouver. Don’t believe me just ask Rob how many investment properties he has purchased in the last 5 years. The people we have buying right now are the last ones to the punchbowl. Get 5% from anywhere and take a chance. The lending standards used to care where you got your 5%. The standards are much lower here for buyers than that of Socal or the U.S. All the Canadian born stars choose to move away because of the huge tax burden that Canadians are subjected to pay.
“The lending standards used to care where you got your 5%. The standards are much lower here for buyers than that of Socal or the U.S. ”
.. and you can back that up?
“Median in Vancouver is $60K for a man, $47K for a woman
That’s $107K for one of each. Wasn’t that far off, was I?”
You’re assuming both spouses work full time, which is certainly not the case for all housholds. Also assuming those numbers are accurate.
In fact the median household income in GV is about 60K.
I remember a day when I was asked by the bank how I got the money for my DP. Haven’t you heard people saying that it is much more difficult now in the U.S to get financed… Hell even the President said” we need to get the banks lending again”.
Years of experience are my credentials. I have purchased many properties over my lifetime. How bout you FTB. Not so much.
“And why is it that we don’t see any famous people lining up to buy 2000 sq.ft houses in, say, Point Grey?”
Well what about Christopher Judge:
Judge starred as the muscle-bound alien Teal’c. But when the six-foot-three actor appeared in B.C. Supreme Court in mid-November, amid raised eyebrows from the galley, it was for a role he’d desperately hoped to avoid. Judge, who owns three luxury homes in B.C., faces foreclosure.
That was during the mini-bust in 2008. The one that everyone said couldn’t happen.
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/index.cfm?PgNm=TCE&Params=M1ARTM0013321
” In fact the median household income in GV is about 60K.”
That may be true, but Gloria already said they had a “combined” income, which led me to believe that they are both working. “Median household income” will include households where there may only be one income.
Patriotz/83… “two different issues entirely”… I’ll admit that at first glance my proposition might seem like an illogical syllogism – but that’s why it was framed as a rhetorical question… Here’s the thing – I would posit, that in a quantum universe, anything is possible – even, ’shock!/horror!’ the ‘unthinkable’; i.e. a YVR RE crash (and by ‘crash’ I mean 50-60% haircut)… Say, you didn’t use your HELOC to buy a Toyota, did ya???
– just kidding, Patriotz!)… but never say ‘Never’, Patriotz… you’re tempting the RE Gods and as Aristotle once said, ‘The Gods, too, enjoy a joke’… As for Christopher Judge, he’s pretty ‘C’ list – so I wouldn’t be too quick to jump on that bandwagon. A better example would be Harrison Ford – who owns a ‘little’ pied-a-terre on Bowen Island (or used to, not sure if he still does). Sad to say, HP has no BC waterfront property to his name – nevertheless, I did ’one-up’ ol’ IndianaJones once – if ’stealing’ one of his former girl-friends counts…
Gloria/84… Ah yes, Pamela Anderson!… Once upon a time, HP actually had dinner with her (OK – so it was a WestSide dinner party not a cozy tete-a-tete, but it still counts!)… of course, in those dayz (way before her silicon enhancements) she was dating a YVR photographer (Dan Illicic) and hadn’t yet been offered her PlayBoy cover/centrefold… the rest, as they say, is history (or cosmetic surgery, if you prefer)… Personally, I think she was at her ‘girl next door’ best when she was the Labatt’sGirl (remember them!!!)…
PS – as much fun as dining with Pamela was, being kissed goodnight in West Hollywood by Nichelle Nichols (better known to most of you as the original Lt. Uhuru) was simply exquisite! (PatBell – if you’re out there, that signed first edition I gave you was presented to me by Donzaleigh on the same evening that Nichelle took a shining to me)… Ah, those were the days!… Sigh.
http://tinyurl.com/dk3gsq
http://tinyurl.com/y86zmec
vdog:
some soothing text for your current angst:
B.C. real estate 2009 bounce-back to taper off this year, 2011
The mortgage-rate fuelled bounce-back of British Columbia real estate in 2009 has probably used up most of the market’s growth for 2010 and 2011, according to a new estimate from the B.C. Real Estate Association.
http://tinyurl.com/yeacxue
Yes, we are both working f/t, and I am making more than my hb. ‘Cause I was a good girl and went to school after I got my BSc.
So, double income, no kids, a bit over 110k. FTB, as far as I know, 110 k is not an average household income here in Vancouver. In NY city, maybe, here no.
Gloria
For that part of town, your household income is about 65% or so of the average (certianly for newer buyers).
Don’t worry – you’ll get them – I suspect your income will rise, and I suspect the other part of the equation will fall.
We are right.
deflation?
VANCOUVER — BC Hydro’s industrial customers are bracing for a high-voltage “rate shock” in a few weeks when the Crown corporation proposes its electricity rates for the coming fiscal year.
Richard Stout, spokesman for Hydro’s large-scale industrial customers, said the utility is looking at “a 15- or 16-per-cent one-year increase coming this spring” as it moves to cover costs of capital projects and incorporate new independent power projects into the provincial electricity grid.
“That’s huge, and it’s well into the territory of rate shock,” said Stout, executive director of the Joint Industry Electricity Steering committee, in a telephone interview this week.
The industrial group has previously warned that Hydro needs average annual increases of 7.5 per cent for at least a decade to cover the cost of updating its aging system.
“You are looking at a very large increase this year and an unabated series of increases for following years, which will threaten the economic advantage this province has enjoyed for so long from being a low-cost hydro supplier,” Stout said.
Hydro will submit its rate request in early March to the B.C. Utilities Commission, and information posted last year on Hydro’s website projects a rate increase totalling 11.42 per cent for the 2011 fiscal year, and 8.7 per cent in 2012. In the past two years, rates went up a total of 11 per cent.
Deflation? Or just price increases in day-to-day living expenses? Don’t confuse (deliberately confuse?) debt default, credit bubble and asset price deflation with prices. Price increases merely raise living expenses, thus leaving even less money available to either service existing debt or spend and hence support the economy. Without wage increases, it is not inflation.
Off topic. Rob discussed this topic a while back.
Battle to unlock the housing market
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/battle-to-unlock-the-housing-market/article1450088/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheGlobeAndMail-Business+%28The+Globe+and+Mail+-+Business+News%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo
94, I never said that $110K was the average household income. You have two incomes in your household, which is obviously more incomes than average. I’m guessing you didn’t study statistics
HP to Caballero… HP to Caballero… Come in, Caballero. There’s a tasty one stuck in ModerationHell… (admittedly the product of yesterday’s cocktail hour, but decidedly non-fiction nonetheless)…
Now on to other business… Rich pickings as regards developing ‘patterns’… so without further ‘ado’, let’s dip into some GlobalMacro….
Trouble with Google? Forget about it!…. Now the Chinese are really PO…
[Xinhua] China to halt military exchanges, punish U.S. companies for arms sales to Taiwan
http://tinyurl.com/yk9sj22
Accordingly, is the following merely a ‘co-incidence’ or an ominous portent of things to come…
[Xinhua] Russia, China seek to tap cooperation potential
http://tinyurl.com/yfaasqn
And, a ‘little’ closer to home, the true state of UncleSam’s parlous finances are getting harder and harder to hide… (avid fans of capital markets will have already noted the non-response to yesterday’s US GDP figures)…
[NYT] In Cost Dispute – U.S. Halts Airlift of Haiti Quake Victims
http://tinyurl.com/yernskx
[Richmond Times-Dispatch] More than 60,000 jobs disappear in a single day
http://tinyurl.com/ygffszk
[CalcRisk] Unofficial Problem Bank List Increases to 599
http://tinyurl.com/ygtbjod
[BigPicture] Best Economic Gauge You’ve Never Heard Of
http://tinyurl.com/yeojylh
[FRBC] CFNAI Data Series
http://tinyurl.com/ykjp9mh
And now for some Micro… a weekly snapshot from the Land of StockWellDay… (is it just HP, or is that billboard of Day’s on Highway 97 just too creepy for words?)…
[Penticton Herald] Game over for golf resort in Summerland
http://tinyurl.com/yz537vg
[Penticton Herald] Growers seek aid over low returns
http://tinyurl.com/yjbsbet
[PentictonWesternNews] Police raid Penticton apartment
http://tinyurl.com/ykjjc37
Last up – absent some genuine Zen – some new developments in the Toyota saga, with apologies to Patriotz…
[LAT] Doubt cast on Toyota’s decision to blame sudden acceleration on gas pedal defect
http://tinyurl.com/ycxyw5u
#96 that is what happens when we have a goverment sponsored and owned economy. I have yet to find an economy in the developped world where the goveremnt is so much involved . Here are main branches of direct goverment control I found here: (feel free to add more )
-utilities
- car insurance
- morgage insurance
- liquor
- healthcare
- banks (the 5 majors are so dependent on goverment morgage subsidies that they hardly can be called idependent private entrprises for now)
The end result of this is that the consumer /taxpayer foots the bill in the end by paying higher prices for mediocre service. Most things goverments do are inefficient and waste of taxpayers money.
96,
Don’t the governments sitting in Victoria, be they NDP or Liberal, tend to pilfer through Crown Corp profit to balance their budgets? Maybe the Liberals took a bit too much and now they’re going to replenish the coffers through a hidden tax grab they won’t be on the hook for, politically. Just sayin’.
GG,
If it didn’t work that way, we’d be the U.S. Doesn’t work much better there either with their alleged ‘free enterprise’. Free on the upside, heavily subsidized on the down.
OK. Who’s going to an open house this weekend? I’m too bored of it all to drag my ass out and listen to folks panic about being priced out. Anyone up for a bit of anecdotal reportage? 13 days and counting…
FTB 86 – Payscale.com is not an accurate source, and is extremely skewed. You are better to use census data, which shows that average and medians incomes are significantly lower than what you are suggesting:
BC wide (individuals) – http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/famil105k-eng.htm
Vancouver (family) – http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/famil105k-eng.htm
Income by highest level of education: http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/labor51g-eng.htm
Anyway, there’s loads more data there. The point is, 110K is well above average, even for a two income household. And it will still barely buy you a crapshack on the east side. Awesome.
104.. woohoo I am above average, but still can’t afford a decent home… nice
VD
I’m hearing stories of ‘deals’ and places on Van priced for a quick sale/motivated sellers…seems to be an increase in these stories.
Lots and lots and lots of Open Houses on the wet side today….
Recovery points to summer rate hike
Canadians should be preparing for higher interest rates sooner rather than later.
http://tinyurl.com/yds8ggv
the comments section is also “interesting”
BS
I saw a TON of OPEN HOUSE signs today – more than I can remember in a long while – in the 41st/49th cambie to arbutus area…just smokin, and my friends independently commented on the same.
I wonder, are listings cranking vs. sales, or are sales still brisk? anyone know?
check out yatter matters, Larry has turned bearish.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/the-buy-side/where-is-the-next-bubble-going-to-burst-i-bet-china/article1447858/
while perhaps a bit extreme (china could flatline for a year or two while fundamentals catch up…they have a lot of firepower), is the recent cooling action in china slowing china buying here? why so much for sale on the westside all of a sudden? any thoughts on this?
Koombaya?
113/JameyDoe…. Yes re: China, here are three hints:
[NYT] U.S. Approval of Taiwan Arms Sales Angers China
http://tinyurl.com/yck9toz
[UK Guardian] Tony Blair accused of putting war with Iran on the electoral agenda
http://tinyurl.com/y9bk79o
[NYT] U.S. Speeding Up Missile Defenses in Persian Gulf
http://tinyurl.com/ya58uqy
Is SenorCaballero enjoying a ‘DirtyWeekend’ – or just so busy writing up offers that he hasn’t had time to check the comment queue?! Sorry, All – two prior, longish posts trapped in the blog machinery… We may see them yet?
HP
FTBuyer busy bidding against the lesseinig crowds at the increasing OPEN HOUSES.
In your opinion is this market now in capitulation mode?
“Most things goverments do are inefficient and waste of taxpayers money”
Only one item on that list you gave is demonstrably so in BC/Canada. The fact is that health care in Canada is much cheaper and more efficient than in the US, utilities and car insurance are reasonable in BC, liquor is a cash cow for the government (which is a good thing IMO as I drink little), and bank regulation is a necessity (beats bank bailouts).
Which leaves you know what. Funny, that’s the only one that the Fraser Institute is in favour of.
Lumen Open House weekend…. very, very busy. Many units under 500K. First time buyers are still the engine that drives this thing. At 477K, they could be out of their apartment for like 2K a month. The best unit will be sold today. Taking back up offers only. Same ol’ same ol.
Oh… and one for WoW… one of the units at Lumen is on sale for less than one they paid for it before it was built. But it’s fugly. The nicer ones will sell quickly but strangely enough, the developer seems to have those.
when we checked Lumen pre construction we found
the size of thee bedrooms to be unacceptably small
and some of the units did not have outdoor space or
parking for $60o per sq. ft……
“car insurance is reasonable in BC”
you’re joking, right?
Lumen = Lumpen. For the lumpenproles.
VD
Are you expecting sales/list over 100% this week and declining pace of listings and sales ramped up to the stratosphere?
vd
according to your sentiment, January will be a rockstar month for the bulls.
i don’t see it that way.
saw a ton of new for sale signs today
this is the beginning of the end you dutz
smell the coffee – WAKE UP
I love being called a dutz. I F’IN’ LOOOOVVVVEEE ITTTTTT! Wow. I know you better than you know yourself, dude. We shall see. I’d be happy to be wrong but in Vancouver itself, that’s my locale, where we both live, because I believe we are neighbours, January won’t exactly be MicK Jagger but it certainly will be Neil Sedaka.
Trees 1; Highrise Buildings 27.
Happy Smiling Buildings? – Subtle Signs Of A Distorted Vancouver RE Market In An Olympic Children’s Book
http://tinyurl.com/happy-smiling-buildings
It would be natural to animate the mountains, trees, oceans, islands… right? Well, yes, maybe you would, if all else were equal. If, however, you were living in a society preoccupied with its profoundly over-inflated real estate market, you’d be moved to animate the buildings. Yes, the buildings. Subtle point? Perhaps. But a preposterously distorted real estate market does effect a society in innumerable subtle ways. -vreaa
FTB 118:
Wrong. Just plain argumentative with no regard for the facts Wrong. Some people just like to complain and pick fights I guess. First, apples to apples. No sense comparing to a cherry-picked data point. Some old guy with no accidents in a rural area who drives to church once a week, has very low coverage with multiple exemptions and is in a jurisdiction that allows uninsured drivers and the company doesn’t have to pay if they hit you kind of thing.
“How much would the same driver pay for auto insurance if they had the same vehicle, same driving record and same claims history but lived in each of the communities surveyed in this study?”
Second: Unbiased source. There are “studies” done by various groups heavily slanted, with the cherry-picked data cleverly hidden under layers and layers of words VD would be proud of. (Sorry, VD, but you’re in advertising, right?)
“Consumers’ Association of Canada National Auto Insurance Rates Study – October 2005″
Third: (Kind of follows from the second.)
“The first release of the 2005 national study examined and compared auto insurance
rates in Alberta and British Columbia. The second release included comparative
information on Ontario. This third release focuses on New Brunswick, Newfoundland &
Labrador and Nova Scotia.
Three Hundred diverse rating profiles were selected to establish a statistically valid
representative profile of the Canadian driving population. In effect, this study provides
a statistically valid snapshot comparison of Canadian drivers, similar in approach to the
Canadian Consumer Price Index. These profiles were selected to be representative on
key insurance rate determinants such as age, gender, claims history, driving record,
community population, marital status and vehicle type.
The Association utilized 74,846 auto insurance rate quotes from New Brunswick, 25,432
from Newfoundland & Labrador and 89,370 from Nova Scotia covering 71 communities
across these provinces. As well, the study used over 3.7 million quotes from the
provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario for
comparative purposes. The study obtained rate quotes for each driver profile for every
one of the communities from the largest insurers with significant market shares in each
province, as well as public auto insurers where applicable. Adequate data was not
available for Prince Edward Island.
The driver profiles were selected using a statistically valid selection method and each
profile was selected randomly from a large pool of individuals who have recently sought
to purchase auto insurance. ”
Fourth: Provide some meat, not just “You’re joking.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnwfcf
Overall, BC has the third lowest rates in Canada, despite our rather poor level of driver skill, tricky terrain and high accident rate. Behind only Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
For some mind-numbing detail of an Alberta/BC comparison; http://tinyurl.com/y8ehjou
BTW, Toronto is the highest in the country, by a big margin.
So FTB, please do the tiniest bit of research to avoid that nasty rubber taste that comes from foot-in-mouth disease.
well, i’m a dutz too vd, but I think January will be a cool month for RE, let’s see how the stats shake out, Feb is a toss up, march 4th the budget, interest rate increases loom, let’s see how she blows!
that said, look at yattermatters, east side detached avg sold price down fifty large you dutz!:)
smell them roses dude!
124, wow OK, patriotz mad unsubstantiated arguments about the state of insurace, healthcare, liquor, utilities, and you accept them at face value. I suggest that one of them might be incorrect, in a tongue in cheek way, and you’re all over me. What were you saying about picking fights? Perhaps I should have said “In my opinion, and the opinion of almost everybody I know (all of who have experience of car insurance in countries other than Canada) insurance in BC is overpriced”. Better?
126: I give a very relevant link with facts and figures. You give “opinion” demonstrably incorrect. Where is your data?
Show me something, anything that suggests that an apples to apples comparison of auto insurance rates would not show our ICBC very, very high up the list, even on an international level. Keeping in mind that it is not ICBC that mandates the minimum level of coverage one is allowed to license a vehicle with, of course a country with minimal or no requirements will have a lower rate possible. Just don’t be hit by someone without insurance there. Also ICBC does not have anything to do with driver license standards or enforcement, a place with far stricter training and enforcement will have a lower accident rate and hence lower premiums possible, but again that’s not under ICBC control. Apples to apples, we have a very good public auto insurance system.
Show me some data!
VDCallHomeWowee,
We walked from Fairview to Dunbar (all the way to Bianca). Didn’t see one For Sale sign that wasn’t accompanied by a sold sticker. Where is your street of inflated dreams?
It’s OK, AC. I don’t feel proud of any words. They’re just tools. You gotta consider the source as well as than the “facts”.
Dudette, I insist.
VD: I have little respect for the “Marketing Monster” as I call it, but I do recognize a job well done, and tools well used. We are all caught up in the machine, making our way as best possible, I certainly don’t hold you to account for the evilness of the overall marketing monster, and if you have used the tools provided to you on the job given to you in a skillful way then be proud.
(As long as you aren’t working on a campaign to hook kiddies on cigarettes, or to sway public opinion in favour of the Iraqi war or such like. I do have my limits on what I can overlook.)
FTB? Any data?
VD
Check the stats tonight – let’s see if listings grew (net) or not. If they did, your a blind dingbat, my dutzy friend!
I saw a ton of new for sale signs today and few solds….eyes wide open.
Rob
Can u please settle our debate – did westside listings grow or shrink this month (net)?
Thanks.
VD’s friendly nemesis…
Will the TSE lose the gains made in 2009? Looks like more declines to come.
VD
Agent Will posted that 1/3rd of this week’s sales went at/over list, so I guess that means the market is smoking hot. Or is he using typical realtor data mining, only posting ‘positive’ news….Rob’s stats tonight will shed light. Larry’s stats show declining prices….I see a ton of Open House/For Sale signs…is it only me, or do the stats support me?????
Who can break this dutz brothers data stalemate?
VDCallHome you’re a dolt. You’re really doing a disservice by misrepresenting the situation on the street. Went to some open houses today.. it’s crazy out there.
Karuma,
I assume by this that sales/list will crush over 100% this week and listings will fall (net) over the coming months…..I guess Larry’s stats showing slowing is BS and the average price drop on the east side detached of $50,000 is just noise.
Let’s see what this evenings stats update has to say…are VD and Karuma right, is everything basically selling as soon as the listing hits the frypan?
#127 AC
Too busy to compile data for you, but I can tell you from personal experience that I paid 700 euros a year in germany for my car insurance (aprox 60k car) and have insured my car here (same value approx 58k) and it costs me 2250 CAD a year for approximately the same policy. One good thing I should say , ICBC recognised a letter from my insurer back home that I had no accident for the last 30years (they are interested though in the last 8 years only for some reason) and gave me 40% discount but still 2250 after the discount is still a high price compared to what I paid back home.
VD
Two NEW for sale signs on my street this month – nothing sold – on the westside st I rent on – its a shi shi area and no action.
Vd, Karuma – where are the buyers? Are the lookers not buying for some reason? I know friends who bought recently – they go all the open houses in their hood just to ’see what’s out there’ but are not buyers (leveraged to the hilt), perhaps it is them and their brethern that you are running into.
Karuma, you and VD seem to go to a LOT of open houses – do you buy much? Or are you just there to look?
Where have all the buyers gone? I suspect that in a couple of months the yoy sales #s will fall. Any thoughts?
VD/AC…. “Chess is as elaborate a waste of human intelligence as you can find outside an advertising agency.” Raymond Chandler
In ’the’ day, AC – HP worked for the very best/worst of them (depending upon your POV)… but chose his projects very carefully, indeed…
GG… something I had forgotten to mention earlier (when you were being accused of impolitic observations)… you are living proof - if any were needed – that. contrary to popular opinion, Teutonic men actually have a highly developed/acute sense of humour… otherwise, why would you have traded the AutoBahn for Highway99??! Next time you’re feeling ‘recreational’ I suggest Highway33 from Kelowna to RockCreek.
AC,
Advertising isn’t what you imagine it to be. We don’t get to lie and manipulate as much as politicians, statisticians or armies. Just watch Mad Men. It’s pretty much as bad as it ever got and then all the fun was shut down decade by decade. First the expenses. Then the drinking. Then the budgets, the smoking, the lying, on an on until it’s like working for an insurance company.
GG:
What is your impression of the general level of driver skill, courtesy, caution and so on here vs Germany? I suspect that may have a lot to do with a much higher accident rate here. Also are the multi-million dollar injury payouts common there? Are there mandated minimum coverage levels?
My impressions from France and Italy (never been to Germany. Yet.) is that the skill level is much higher, courtesy a bit of a wash, caution higher, and especially that everyone seemed to drive from the same playbook, hence greatly lessening confusion. The rules of the road, both legal and customary, where much more understood.
Hard really to compare between countries, I suppose. But for the realities within which it must work, ICBC is a very good organization. We have far too many accidents here, and not nearly enough driver training. I still shake my head at the fact that one can get a full-fledged unrestricted license without ever having to show ones ability to control a skid, emergency brake, take evasive action etc.
Did you have to, GG?
Agent will stat say that another 1000 listings came on last week, but a list sell ratio of 59%. Thats about 4500 new listings this month, but the sell list ratio looks like we are going back to a solid market…
Interesting with the new sales. Wouldn’t it be interesting if some sellers were attempting to catch international audience attention? Lots of moneybags coming to town in about a week. If they like what’s on sale, they may actually purchase. We will have to see in a month.
Don’t get me wrong, Italian drivers are nuts, but at least they are consistent nuts and know how to drive! The survivors anyway…
ya, Agent Will, 59% sale/list, sales pretty strong this past week, give it credit…but listings…oh, yeah, they continue to pour on and more listings today than a week ago…that said, the trend is choppy and remains in question…fair enough….
59% sale/list…bout as strong as she’ll get…look for listings to continue to pour on.
VD, there are MORE listings today than a week ago – all of those sold sign’s you see have been outpaced by net new listings.
that said, this past week is a toss up to some extent…look fwd to Rob’s outline of the valley – is it getting crushed, or NOT?
china stock market down another 2%…..
sales in china slowing (real estate/bank lending)
is it washing over our shores/markets? i see lots of listings in westside, is asia repatriating some mulla?
Good Lord, Phidininny,
You’re eyeballin’ the micro. Listings should start to pile on in January. They fizzle in December and pile on in January, or at least start to. Sorry but you’ll have to wait until the Olympics are done to really glimpse what’s going on. Let’s hope the Chinese (are they even coming?) don’t buy up Millenium Water. ‘Cause that’ll knock some inventory off the map, big time. It’s certainly being pitched to them. I just received an online email: beautiful Asian woman all in white holding white flowing fabric in the wind with the leisurely opening hours… Purity and Beauty. That’s what sells leaky condos nowadays.
But Niny, ya know I love ya. I love to revel in your denial. It’s comforting in times of change.
VD
Fair ‘nough…mayhaps I need to give it 60 days and then check back on the micro…hard to believe the big O is here…
Answer me this – what will folk, who have had 8 years to look fwd to a big macro event (biggest in its history) have to look fwd to in a month? Just bills and reality me thinks.
#142 AC : No, they gave it to me without passing any tests, it seems that there is some agreement between BC and Germany, so that was cool. My wife had to go through all the tests as she had a french driver licence and there is no agreement with BC. Wont comment about driving skills here, I just wish people could drive on the right side of the road when possible, it will make traffic much more fluid. I also feel that that there is so much work going on the roads here, it seems that as soon as they put some asphalt and finish a road, another team comes and start diging in the same place….. so I guess there is too much stimulus money going on. Maybe those are the unintended effects of the stimulus policy, use it or loose it.
Why does everyone write ‘lose’ as ‘loose’? They are two different words (gg, not pointing at u, lots of folk do it…I find it odd, that’s all, how pervasive it is…).
Well, party I was at today had everyone talking about buying more RE – greed has not yet turned to its kissing cousin – but is that just a matter of weeks away?
Honestly AnonyWoW,
I totally agree. But I can’t help noticing that all my common-sense thinking has been wrong so far (except for a delicious 6-month period). Let me play devil’s advocate, may I? What do Vancouverites have to look forward to that could impact us negatively as bears? (In no particular order:)
1. Turned on foreign buyers.
2. Markets turning down in China (both RE and stock) means looking for greener pastures for buy and hold investments elsewhere.
3. Three solid months of buyer’s panic: March 1st to July 1st to get in before the HST.
4. Flippers taking advantage of the market’s taste for resale properties rather than new-builds and being able to off-load their investments in an orderly fashion.
5. Long-term interest rate rises causing buyers to be susceptible to the pitch buy now while rates are .25%, .5%, 1% above the lowest rates in history. Lock in.
6. Supply & demand: a large part of the builder’s inventory that helped with the decline in 2008 has been sold off.
7. A return to investing in real estate (I know, it’s laughable) rather than the stock market and/or a hedge against inflation (whether real or imaginary)
8. No cease in first-time buyer demand as builders create less ‘fancy’ properties (price goes down a bit as interest rates go up ever so slightly or not at all, really)
Is that enough?
GG:
I meant originally in Germany. Here you just have to drive around a bit under normal conditions, park and back up without major infractions or accidents. No need to prove you can handle anything at all in the way of emergency avoidance ,braking or poor road conditions.
Oh and the #1 Factor to Keep This Market Humming?
No rise in the interest rates.
VD
Sure, intersting points.
Now give us the bear points (in no particular order) se vous plait.
VD
I suppose I can just rent a better westside pad, and pocket the $30-50k in annual savings, while buyers bid stuff up to the moon. I can take that savings abd buy distressed RE in other parts of the world, where I get a cash flow positive yield. I’m fine with that. Bring it on!
But, somehow, I believe fundamentals will take over – like they always have.
Since the beginning of time. I think our market is inflecting – we’ll know this year. Hopefully the weeks ahead are a washout for the local RE mkt.
Bear points,
1. Death by a thousand tax cuts. Not tax cuts but slices off your pay cheque from the tax man. First there’s HST. Then there’s the Provincial, Federal and Municipal governments needing to fill the troughs. Less money at the end of the month, means more careful study of how far one can take this mortgage thing–even when rates are low.
2. Approaching the affordability ceiling
3. Post-Olympic haze shows that foreign buyers aren’t all that interested in Vancouver. Most of the rush to buy was induced by panicky buyers thinking foreigners are pricing them out.
4. Too close to home! Outlying areas: Fraser Valley, etc., may decline in earnest, feeding into sentiment that Vancouver might be next.
5. Reality in the Realm of Rents. As more FTBs and others move out of their rental units to purchase their new condos & homes at unbeatable low interest rates, many units sit empty. It may take months but landlords will either have to adjust to renting for just part of the year to people willing to pay their price, lower rents, or add the unit to the pile of for sale inventory on the market. More talk in the media of price/rent ratios being an important consideration when buying an investment property.
6. The beginnings of a double-dip recession. It’s an outlier but that alone would do the trick.
7. Cutbacks in government jobs. The Liberals negotiated a good chunk of union contracts to expire in 2010/2011. Now they’ve got to go back to the table (or not). You can be sure the unions will hit the press with a barrage of bad news (true or false, doesn’t matter). This can contribute to negative sentiment, especially real cutbacks and real job cuts.
8. A cool analysis that after 8 years of hype, expansion, building and preening, no new major head offices exist in Vancouver. I repeat, no new major companies have expanded or moved here to The Best Place on Earth. Therefore the jobs market will look very much the way it did in 2001, which is quite upsetting those having to pay for this into the next decade (or two). Those = us.
Howzat?
152: A lot of ‘alots’ as well. Actually, in this case they should just add ‘alot’ to the dictionary. Saves _.
General FYI: Stock markets down starting Feb (Monday) IMHO. If not I’ll be shocked, or helicopter Ben et al increase bailout/Q.E.. But what do I know.
Also, Chinese don’t invest in China stocks, per se. They buy/invest in apts as no property tax there (this may change finally but tentatively applied to commercial for 2011), negative real returns parked elsewhere within their borders.
Deep pockets from US and UK park here, I’d be surprised if those from China, Middle East, Russia, etc don’t once they see this city. If you had 10 mil, where would you park? USD? If RE where? There are only a handful of cities. This is one of them. If I could get a piece of Manhattan/Kensington Sq/Shanghai Xintiandi I wouldn’t care if it fell 30% because I’d know it’s demand exceeds.
Crude going to $69 potentially ( anyone realize how much they’re paying per gallon now?). Gold still dipping but entry at right point as it’s gold vs paper these days. USD in good range - for the moment. We’ll see how the new US Budget plays this week.
I’m considering addtional investment property depending on what happens after the big O.
The way I see it, after HST new construction will price lower but pre-owned will hold. Whichever prices lower, relatively, is the one I’m watching.
VD/145…. ‘like working for an insurance company’… is it really that grim now?
Yikes.
VD/153… ‘are they even coming?’ Evidently….
http://tinyurl.com/yksuxao
Well, maybe overstated a bit. But the parties are cheap. I remember when we got bought out by one of the big agencies in NY. They mailed us some Cinco de Mayo stuff for our “mandatory” 5th of May party. Cinco was in and November 11th was out–officially cancelled–you had to come into work. (Reminded me of the Brits cancelling 4th of July on Mad Men, but at least that Guy lost his foot-hold in America). Included were streamers, party hats and absolutely no extra money for booze. And HP, the clients control the whole process. BCIT graduates 12-year olds and they live in fear of presenting any idea that might make the client ‘mad’. So they get their pens out and zzzzzzzzzzzzz….. One agency in town does it differently and that’s why they’re #1.
AC, haven’t been able to find any hard data I’m afraid, this is mostly based on experience. ICBC don’t exactly make it easy to get quotes online, either. Tell you what, if you like a challenge, let me know what car you drive (or just choose a fairly standard car if you don’t drive), and I’ll grab you a quote from the UK (assuming that you’re, say, 30 years old with a clean driving license and have secure off-street parking). Sure, it’s just one data point, but it’s just for fun. The UK has a mandatory basic level of insurance, too.
By hook or by crook:
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/02/01/nypost-report-fortress-intrwest.html
Can anyone verify the numbers from the original Olympic promise? This guys claims they promised 660m cost to 10bn profit. I think it’s a bit overstated but an interesting read nonetheless:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/jan/31/vancouver-winter-olympics-police
Vancouver has been continually ranked as the world’s most livable city. An Olympic sized-dose of gentrification would only serve to speed up Vancouver’s transformation from a livable yet expensive city into a glitzy hotel for international capital. But these neoliberal dreams are now little more than fantasy. In the mid-2000s the games were originally slated to cost a pittance of $660m and bring in a profit of $10bn. This ludicrous projection was made before the market crash – an event that the Vancouver’s Olympic committee failed to anticipate.
Can you imagine what the London Olympics will cost them?
VD/169…. cheers for Guardian link. Priceless. Utterly priceless. Especially the VANOC promotional vid incorporating Leni Riefenstahl’s work… Will ElGordo be sporting a moustache in time for the Opening? oh yes… one last thing, CincoDeMayo party hats sans booze??? I’m lost for words… Sad days indeed.
IIRC the London Olympics budget tripled to $16bn in 2007 (2 years after they were selected as hosts). I wouldn’t be surprised if that were to double again by 2012. Without the Olympics, however, it’s hard to imagine how the upgrades to the tube would have ever happened.
From that Guardian article:
“Vancouver looks more like post-war Berlin than an Olympic wonderland”
What a load of nonsense.