Weekly Stats
As we go through the Holidays we should expect rising sell/lists and falling inventory – that doesn’t mean that the market is getting stronger so much as reflect that listing activity slows down much more than sales activity at this time of year. A 52% sell/list has to be kept in perspective.
| Week | 10/6-10/12 | 11/29-12/6 | 12/7-12/14 |
| Total Inventory | 19,604 | 17,703 | 17,257 |
| New Listings | 1,410 | 666 | 519 |
| Sold | 377 | 268 | 271 |
| Sell/List | 26.74% | 40.24% | 52.22% |
| Over 90s | 6,283 | 6,551 | 7,336 |
| Over 90s % | 32.05% | 37.00% | 42.5% |
| Price Reductions | 1,294 | 644 | 520 |
| Price Increases | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| % of Inventory Reduced | 6.6% | 3.64% | 3.01% |
| Weeks of Supply | 52 | 66 | 63 |
| New Listings | 1,410 | 666 | 519 |
| New List Price Average | $652,532 | $581,802 | $606,819 |
| Detached | $862,486 | $802,187 | $775,312 |
| Attached | $505,622 | $444,195 | $482,844 |
| Sales | 377 | 268 | 271 |
| Average List Price of Sales | $595,639 | $549,972 | $549,671 |
| Average Sales Price | $562,772 | $508,484 | $513,156 |
| Difference ($) | -$32,867 | -$41,488 | -$36,515 |
| Difference (%) | -5.52% | -7.54% | -6.64% |
| DOMs | 54 | 59 | 65 |
| Price Changes | 1,305 | 651 | 532 |
| Average Old Price | $647,555 | $606,852 | $622,654 |
| Average New Price | $613,514 | $573,299 | $585,505 |
| Difference ($) | -$34,041 | -$33,553 | -$36,849 |
| Difference (%) | -5.26% | -5.53% | -5.92 |
| DOMs | 64 | 72 | 77 |
144 comments
Anyone see this piece from 60 minutes yet?
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/12/15/mortgage-meltdown-part-deux/
Looks like a further wave of hard times ahead in the US. Wonder if we have any of these other “exotic” mortgages in Canada…
Saw it, liked it,especially the Miami numbers. I found it hard to believe that this was newsflash material, however, as its been mentioned plenty in the blogosphere, but that’s the MSM for you I guess.
63 weeks of inventory…..
coincidentally that brings us to the big O
is that significant?
some of those incoming rich folk will be interested in “W” or TV Towers…. time to start staging…..
LOL at the Madoff Ponzi scheme, the biggest Ponzi scheme ever:
http://money.canoe.ca/News/Other/2008/12/15/7754711-ap.html
Ironically, the real estate bubble in Vancouver was a bit of a Ponzi scheme too. The real estate bubble required the support of first time buyers, so that existing owners could sell and move up the ladder.
Unfortunately, when first time buyers are priced out, then the Ponzi scheme all comes crashing down.
Ironically, the real estate bubble in Vancouver was a bit of a Ponzi scheme too.
A “bit”? The global RE bubble was the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.
All bubbles are Ponzi schemes because the asset does not yield enough income to provide a return comparable to fixed income. Thus gains to investors come from purchases by new investors.
I don’t know whether anyone posted this in previous threads, but I found an interesting article, “Special investigation: How high-risk mortgages crept north” in the Globe and Mail on Friday. It’s subtitled “The untold story of how elements of the first Conservative budget in 2006 encouraged big U.S. players such as AIG to make a push into Canada, creating our version of subprime mortgages.”
A key quote: “New mortgage borrowers signed up for an estimated $56-billion of risky 40-year mortgages, more than half of the total new mortgages approved by banks, trust companies and other lenders” during the first half of this year.
This seems to blow out of the water the mantra repeated by so many that “Canada doesn’t have a sub-prime problem like the U.S.” And repeated so often that it became received wisdom.
Same old story. F***ers and suckers.
BOOM2
Vancouver Rental Vacancy Rates 0.5
Hey Bears and Anon posters please do not miss the boat in boom2 Also do not forgot to buy multi color paints brushes, paparazzi cameras,and microscope etc because that’s what you need to run your studio or workshop in downtown or gastown just shop for all those items and throw some paint over your sweet heart,I am Tatto Artist that’s why most of my girl friends got stars in string or at riverse,some time i play dj to beat the boom2 out of most recent buyers i had also captured them in my high definition movie camera on 36th floor in downtown My Heart Goes Boom
My heart goes Boom2 Every time I buy real estate
Heart’s going BBB Lost control at robson
Cos I wanna keep a penthouse Till the end of our lives
I could never miss again These loving chance to buy in boom2
My heart goes Boom2 Every time I think of you
I feel that Boom2 downtown No control to buy in gastown
Simplicity, complexity, oh what a condo Reality, insanity,
strange normality, Incredible, untouchable, but just visual
And I want just SFH around beach an appartment in the heart
My heart goes BBB When any mind is touching my real estate
Inside that penthouse Only light inside Boom2
My heart goes BBB
When any mind is touching
my real estate
well lookit that
satv did a haiku
in his pants….
inadvertently…..
When any mind is touching
my real estate
his little skyscraper?
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64487/64487_2008_B02.pdf
That is some interesting rental data.
One thing I find striking. On pages 7 and 17 of that report, It appears that for apartments and row homes only about 2%-4% of the entire rental stock is 3Br or more. So I guess if you need 3Br+ then you’re going to have to buy? Too bad the tables don’t include rental data on SFDs.
So I guess if you need 3Br+ then you’re going to have to buy?
Well no. The Sun classifieds, Craigslist, etc. are full of 3br and up rentals. Haven’t you noticed? They are individually titled properties which are not tracked by CMHC.
There are very few 3br units in multi-unit rentals because traditionally very few families have lived in apartments in Vancouver.
patriotz…soon five families will be huddled up in every single family dwelling throughout the land…hey?
There is already much more housing in Canada than people need to live in. There are many empty nesters and widow(er)s living in SFH and those houses are going to come on the market in due course.
Amazing Condo w/ Equity
WOW this condo is Amazing.
Selling my 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1258 sqft, recently renovated everything is new. 2 level Condo style.
I have a managent Company that takes care of renting it out and maintenance. After there fee and all expenses (taxes, mortgage etc.) I’m still up every month. I also have another Condo similar for sale.
at 133,900 how can you go wrong. Positive cash every month, Equity when you buy, management company takes care of it. Great way to retire early or work less.
If interested email me at dlorenzo@affinitypropertiesinc.com
I can also get you financed if you need, and flexible with sale.
Thanks
Have a great day
dlorenzo@affinitypropertiesinc.com
I think this is everlasting enthusiasm………
But dam, these cases are so small & slow to make the real momentum for free fall
I think we need to pop this thing up to see free fall
http://www.itulip.com/images/armadjust.gif
I am starting to hear worrying talks about running inflation to get rid of the debt problem, today on CBC there was an interview with a rich financier in Toronto. Ken Rogoff is saying it openly.
This is crazy.
We will all pay for this stupidity.
Inflation is the worng way to go.
Domus,
Here is the counter-arguement to your opinion:
http://www.financialpost.com/reports/credit-crunch/story.html?id=1076817
We already have deflation in housing and to see the effects of what is mentioned in the last few paragraphs, look at the effect of deflation on the construction sector in a place like vancouver. As the editor alludes to, some inflation is easier to handle than deflation coupled with unemployment. Of course, most of the readers here are counting their cash and cant wait for the continued deflation of the real estate market, but if you need to finance part of your home purchase, you better hope your job is seriously recession proof.
Inflation is a short term fix. it will work and make the pain less acute.
Inlfation is also a long-term b**ch: have a guess what we are choosing. the same people who took the gambles with housing will vote for politicians to inflate prices.
I know the arguments and I want to register my dissent: inflation, in the long-run, is the real enemy.
TSX up 200+
http://tinyurl.com/5c5rqk
Fed chops rate to record low
The U.S. Fed on Tuesday aggressively cut its target for overnight interest rates to a record low zero to 0.25 per cent, and said it would employ “all available tools” to dispel a year-long recession.
The surprise move to lower its target for the benchmark federal funds rate by 0.75 percentage points to up to a full point from its prior 1 per cent put the Fed in unprecedented policy territory.
Those who think that the pending sales data is suggesting a bottom in the US housing think again. November permits 616,000 starts 625,000 and completions 1,084,000. October permits 730,000 starts 771,000 and completions 1,049,000. That is one big drop and still they are completing more than they are starting by a huge margin.
Anybody on this forum can picture Depression in todays condition.
- We have solar power
- We have modern communication
- We have a bit better educated world
Or this is simply to dangerous to picture?
Since you’re provoking discussion:
- we had solar power
- we had modern communication
First things first: I’m not positing a Mad-Max scenario. However, the semiconductor industry (yes, solar power and telecom) is absolutely reliant on gigantic production volumes, planned obsolescence, a cheap global labour pool, and rampant consumer economies, among other things.
Making chips is already an extremely precarious, unbelievably risky endeavour without adding economic uncertainties in the mix. It’s going to be murder in high-tech over the next few years — while there will be some survivors, they won’t be structured the same way as current tech firms.
But we all LOVE Mad-Max scenarios!
Turkey,
You are right that we will see changes, but what we are most likely to see is improved productivity as a response to a tighter market. Some may imagine this to be impossible, but such people forget who necessity’s mother is.
But even if technology were to stop progressing or even revert back to 1990s levels, we still have infinitely more options for economic reconfiguration open to us as a result of this technology.
domus:
“the same people who took the gambles with housing will vote for politicians to inflate prices”. Are you suggesting a new political party? The Fiscal Conservative Party of Canada?
92129:
Interesting story, eh? How about the part about the Fed issuing debt as both an inflationary and deflationary tool?
Looks like Rob’s planned 5% per year appreciation is doomed to fail.
But that’s another story.
My theory is Vancouver will experience a complete collapse once the silent spring has come and gone.
The US bubble burst in a relatively orderly way. Mostly because on the way down the NAR managed to keep the farce alive, that a recovery was just around the corner, and so to some extent, the exit was gradual.
One the farce is exposed and the Muirs, Pastricks, and the Klumps are discredited-not even Rennie will be able to con the rats from leaving the sinking ship.
Disclaimer:
Please realize this is just a theory and I am not a highly trained professional realtor.
Newcomer,
You’re right. There’s a good reason tech management is fixated on Toyota as a way to get ‘lean and mean’ — chip and vehicle production are similar in terms of the time and money it takes and how catastrophic a failure can be. (I guess we’ll find out just how strong the analogies are in the months to come!)
The chip business has been in an escalating productivity crisis for over a decade now. This is not a good time for more trouble in the sector; it has enough problems on its own without a freeze in venture capital and consumer spending.
We won’t be toting around brick-sized cell phones as a result of slaughter in Silicon Valley. We will see a lot of other changes, tho’. Who knows, it might be a good time for folks like me…
Rob/Domus (#24/15),
After reading your comment, I realized i had posted the wrong link. the correct one should be:
http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=1053915
This ones talks about the dangers of deflation and the earlier talks about the dangers of not lifting the foot of the pedal soon enough resulting in inflation.
Interest rates on all sorts of debt are controlled by people and lately, they have not been very good at controlling things.
Chili:
“Rob’s planned 5% per year appreciation…” That’s a misquote, but you doing that sure isn’t another story.
“Disclaimer:
Please realize this is just a theory and I am not a highly trained professional realtor”.
Why worry? When you call for a “complete collapse” you’re pretty much preaching to the choir. Its not a controversial position on this blog. Even if it doesn’t come true you never have to own the prediction because you’re completely unaccountable. You’re playing it pretty safe.
Disclaimer:
If inflation is a danger (and who would ever think that’s a serious possibility? You’d have to be nuts, right Domus?) and we have a 50% drop in values like some have predicted today, how attractive would buying real estate at the bottom look? And if we crunched the numbers starting at the bottom, what would a fair annual nominal appreciation rate be for something with a rent multiplier of 100 and a locked in, long term, low rate mortgage? Can you do that kind of math, Chill? Or in your world does a market crash coupled with continuing inflation mean the world comes to a stop?
“Who knows, it might be a good time for folks like me…”
Could well be. Time sof economic hardship can also be times for advancement if you are one of the fittest.
(For “folks like me,” think “graduate students.” In that context, I get a chuckle out of “fittest” — I do think we might have chosen the best place to ride out the downturn and emerge with decent prospects, provided we’re funded.)
“Even if it doesn’t come true you never have to own the prediction because you’re completely unaccountable. You’re playing it pretty safe. ”
No Rob, I have some skin on this. I am betting the farm, if I am wrong I move from Vancouver.
Turkey:
If you are a graduate student now, and will be fore a few more years, I’d say you are in an enviable position. If you are entering the job market next year, then I think the world is giving you an excuse to stretch your wing by taking a gap year or two
For all those counting on inflation, it’s not a sure thing. At least not for a while. The amount of leverage in the world that is deflating is massive compared to the amount of reflating governments are committed to. All the money supply in the world won’t change the fact that banks aren’t going to lend unless they feel they can be paid back. I’m not saying inflation won’t happen, but it could be a while. Japan in the 90s suffered a decade of deflation and they still haven’t got out of it yet.
42.5% over 90s – can’t wait to see the deals in the Spring.
Tony,
Well said. RE, oil and other commodities are deflating at an alarming rate (and all the kings horses and all the kings men are tryiing as hard as they can to put some air back in it). Things with more inelastic price curves (like cars) see less volume of sales.
I think the banks are not really lending because they are holding onto their cash for a rainy day (which is when they have to pay for all the bad bets on the CDSs and CDOs). They could be making money lending out this cash, but they know they have bigger issues looming. Last bank standing wins as we have seen the banks that get become insolvent first get swallowed up for pennies on the dollar by the other banks that are in a “better” cash position. Heck, i could by a bank if the federal government would give me the loan.
North America (that is, the US plus a pimple to the north) is really starting to resemble Japan circa 1991. Except Japan had huge savings, so stimulating demand COULD have worked, but didn’t. Zero percent interest rates didn’t work then, despite very healthy fundamentals. We, OTOH, have huge debt and no savings. I don’t think that puts us in a better position.
The way I see it, one of three scenarios takes place.
1) The meltdown resumes, deflation really takes hold, businesses and individuals default in a vicious circle. The GD, part 2.
2) The bailouts stabilize the meltdown, a long and painful recession takes over. More and more debt is assumed by all levels of government, the real economy stagnates. Japan with a western flavour. I think this one is unlikely because of the debt load carried by both the consumer, business and government already, any slowdown in the growth rate becomes a big problem, but we are broke and simply can’t “get out there and spend our way to prosperity!”.
3) The bailouts work all too well, hyperinflation ensues. Debt becomes manageable again, but everyone counting on the debt being paid back in real dollars is very disappointed. Saudi Arabia and China are royally pissed at us, and stop selling us oil or consumer goods. Pensions, medical plans, personal savings, business cash reserves all become worthless. The first three are already grossly underfunded as to future liabilities.
In any of those scenarios, Vancouver RE reaches a price where a typical family can buy a typical house. I don’t know why this part is so hard to understand for some.
But what do I know, I’m not a trained professional.
a.c.
stick to ur day job.
Alexcanuck,
as usual am in full agreement. Just one thing: the scenarios you describe might all happen, just in a sequence…..
“In any of those scenarios, Vancouver RE reaches a price where a typical family can buy a typical house. ”
You mean typical houses for sale at prices that a 60K household income qualifies you for? Those would be pretty low prices.
So RJ, you are a trained professional and know better. OK, instead of taking potshots how about telling me what YOU think is going to happen?
Keeping in mind that one of your very few concrete predictions was to buy Canadian financials “then”!
Domus:
Absolutely! Things can change so quick it ….. I don’t know, some analogy from the cartoon world!
I don’t know, some analogy from the cartoon world!
paradigm shift courtesy of the Acme Anvil Co. !
some analogy from the cartoon world!
or rj as Foghorn Leghorn
Gold will go up tomorrow. There; I did it; i’m out on a limb, and i’ve got skin in the Game. And a risky 50% chance of accuracy.
Beat that, RomeoJay!
Ceejay: Don’t be so sure. Gold may be flat. There goes your 50% accuracy!
Japan in the 90s suffered a decade of deflation and they still haven’t got out of it yet.
Asset price (stocks, RE) deflation only. Consumer prices in Japan actually went up very slightly during the 90’s.
A marked contrast to the Great Depression when all prices went down.
AlexCanuck
I will chose option number one as the most likely to occur. Those of us who can maintain our jobs in the following ~5 years will be doing pretty well. Those who lose their jobs will have to relocate to someplace with guaranteed jobs (oil rigs of Norway?), or visit the food bank regularly.
On a more “philosophical” level, this is the end of consumerism as we know it. Why did we need to make a new car model every year again? What’s wrong with last year’s model? My 92′ Previa does the same as any 2009 car – takes you from point A to point B. Less the car payments…
Less is more!
Best regards
arit
You guys are depressing me. Does this mean we should buy gold? Or buy back into the housing market? How the heck does one avoid all this turmoil?
a.c.
no. stop summarizing your blog reads and youtube views and come up with something original and then i’ll respond. Your incorrect summaries of what you’ve read and viewed are annoying.
just b/c u teach grade 3 math and you read blogs and view youtube vids doesn’t make you an economist. anyways, thinking about u is giving me a headache.
on a positive note – i just opened a couple good accounts from name brand vancouverites -. Hope all is well with you.
“or rj as Foghorn Leghorn”
I googled this character and I recognize him – I just don’t remember his character.
If this is a compliment -thanks.
If it is a mud (shoe) sling – I’ll deal with you later. I have a headache from A.C’s posts.
How the heck does one avoid all this turmoil?
You crawl under a rock.
Or you put your fingers in your ears and say “LA LA LA LA LA……
Other than those approaches, you can’t.
Stay liquid and watchful. For what it’s worth (not much!) I’m still positioned for deflation. Cash and bear funds.
Be ready to switch for inflation. Oil, gold, some equities that AREN”T debt laden and are essentials. No real pointers from me. RE in a market that’s not crashing from a bubble. Not sure where that is, not here for sure. Alternative energy has been badly beaten down, more damage to come, but any survivors will be a very good bet. Not yet.
No matter what, the rules are changing. Business as usual is done for a while, until we figure out the new “usual”.
Don’t listen to anyone who offers a simple easy answer.
Don’t listen to anyone who claims to be certain.
You’re on your own, buddy.
All I’m sure of, is that I don’t know for sure.
Mish has been pretty right up to now. He might continue to be right. I listen to him as much as anyone.
ac:
or you could hang out in the bear blogs
and bait the narcissists….
ac
“You crawl under a rock.”
not all of us are superannuated buffoons.
bs
“or you could hang out in the bear blogs
and bait the narcissists…” if that is why your are hear i’ve over estimated you.
ac
“You crawl under a rock.”
not all of us are superannuated buffoons.
bs
“or you could hang out in the bear blogs
and bait the narcissists…” if that is why your are hear i’ve over estimated you.
ac
“You crawl under a rock.”
not all of us are superannuated buffoons.
bs
“or you could hang out in the bear blogs
and bait the narcissists…” if that is why your are hear i’ve over estimated you.
oh god…
“if that is why you’re here… AHHHH
ok i’m leaving those spelling errors are TERRIBLE.
good nite – i’ve officially embarrassed myself.
deflation can be applied to egos as well as the economy……
One word….
Spellcheck.
A few more….
Engage brain before putting mouth in gear.
a.c.
lol – fair enough…..lol u got me..
Beautiful explanation of the inflation/deflation issue by Martin Wolfe on tomorrow’s Financial Times. This is all you need to read to understand the problem.
‘Helicopter Ben’ confronts the challenge of a lifetime
http://tinyurl.com/6sy76f
RJ. I’m truly not out to get you. Don’t take potshots at me, though, I have teeth.
I’m pretty confused myself what the heck is going on in the economy. You’re not helping much. You spend too much time talking about how smart you are, not enough proving it. I think you’re a smart guy, but still need more experience. School is over, time for the real world. Still too sure of yourself. You’ll do fine. Do share your thoughts. Only by putting them out there for discussion can you get feedback. Some smart people here, no need to be shy. They will be brutal to BS artists like Dave, but not to honesty.
The current events are not the way it is “supposed” to work. Come to grips with that, and deal with the way it is. What do you think is going on?
I’m truly not out to get you.
a.c
fair enough – i really do have a bad headache – i’ll write something another day. but speaking of dave.. did you see the post at Vancouver Condo Info…
Is anyone interested in commenting on Rob’s statistics? This blog is in danger of becoming a forum for general vetting which we need not at all. Let’s try to focus more on the pertinent subject at hand.
How the heck does one avoid all this turmoil?
cash.
ac, I think your deflation position is a good play for now.
We have to remember that these monetary shifts don’t happen overnight. We’ve had roughly 7-8 years of massive amounts of money pumping through the system and the amount of leverage that has built up is unprecedented. The amount of production that needs to exist to serve that debt is unachievable (this can is demonstrated by the income/housing price ratios). The contraction and deflation has just started and even if Uncle Ben is successful, it’s going to take, in my opinion, at least a year before inflation indicators start ticking up. During that time frame, there will be market rallies and false signals that “the bottom is in”. But there is a ways to go still for the deleveraging. More companies will go down, more layoffs, as the system sheds itself of the extra layer of economic activity that has been built on debt instead of income/productivity. All those real estate agents, mortgage brokers, construction workers, ect. that relied on all that extra credit sloshing around, allowing people that have no business buying properties to purchase homes, GM cars
, and even stocks.
In my opinion, one of the best indicators will be the price of oil. When it starts moving up with conviction, it will be time to start getting into assets again.
Personally, as tough as it is going to be, I would prefer us to go through this without central banks distorting supply and demand relationships again by pumping money through the system. It’s just going to delay the problem. Piper has got to be paid.
Until then play defense.
When it starts moving up with conviction, it will be time to start getting into assets again.
Didn’t work that way in the 70’s and 80’s. Rising oil prices -> falling asset prices. Falling oil prices -> rising asset prices.
alexcanuck,
I will also add my vote to number 1. My reasons are\
1. So far I have heard nothing in the business news today disputing the story CBS ran on Sunday night re: the $1.5 trillion in Alt A and Option Arm mortgages coming due over the next 3 years and starting basicially now. This is a tsunami at least the size of the sub-prime wave and will be washing into an already compromised global financial system. The US housing market is going to get worse, not better and global finance will become tighter, not looser.
2. The US $700 billion Tarp program is a collosal failure. Bush did what he has become famous for – handing administration over to incompetant and corrupt cronies. The banks did what they have become famous for – stealing money. The program handed over billions with no oversight. The banks took the money under the guise of getting rid of bad debt and instead used it to buy other banks or pay out dividends so that CEOs and other executives wouldn’t get fired. Even Democratic congress members are now refusing to hand over any more money.
3. The US Federal Reserve just emptied its last rounds into the mud. An analyst on BNN was asked today what the Reserve’s remaining options are now that interest rates are pretty much at zero. “Well”, said the analyst, “they now have to start talking long-term rates down.” Talking rates down? Yeah, asking banks to lower long-term rates. And when they tell him to go p-ss off. Well he can go and lower interest…oops. Nope.
3. The U.S. car makers will fail. They will fail for all the wrong reasons too. They will not fail because of the unions. Wages in the Big Three are only $2 an hour higher than in Japan. The difference in labour costs is in the health benefits paid to retired US workers, who without the benefits, would retire with no health care. Japan, like Canada, has universal medical, so the health costs of retired employees is born by the state, not individual corporations. The unions will not dump the retirees overboard while Wall Street bankers get billions…and they shouldn’t. The US automakers did make lots of big fat, fuel guzzling trucks and suvs but you won’t hear any of the southern US Republicans talking about this. Though its debatable how much relative fuel efficiency is eating into sales. The big culprit, the one that is going to kill the Big 3 is the credit market or lack of it. Consumers don’t pay cash for new cars, they take out loans. If they can’t get loans they can’t buy cars. And right now and for the forseeable future credit is going to be extremely tight. Tha’ts why its not only the Big 3 seeing sales tumble, its also Toyota and Honda. The US government will hand some billions to the Big 3 but the government will not start loaning money directly to car buyers. Without sales, no amount of money can keep these companies afloat.
But if the Big 3 fail or even if one fails it will be another huge shock to the US economic system. These are good paying manufacturing jobs and so are the parts suppliers and dealerships supplying middle-class jobs. When these companies go down it will reverberate throughout the entire North American economies.
4. We are likely heading into deflation. Deflation brings wage deflation and this will be devastating to an economy built on retail consumption. Real wages have barely grown over the last 3 decades but the expectation of some growth is what has kept consumer credit alive and growing and consumer credit is what has kept the retail service sector growing and creating all the crappy jobs we all try to escape from by buying stuff on credit. So now we will have falling wages and already tight consumer credit getting tighter as expectations of lower future income becomes expectations of deminished future ability to pay for things purchased at todays prices.
So…
All indications are that this is a massive economic mess that only that clown George W. Bush could have presided over. Obama is like me when my younger brother gave me his 1982 Toyota Corolla 15 years ago. The car had been driven into the ground – no tune-ups, oil changes, radiator leaking and ran dry. The best care in the world only got another 4 years like out of it. That’s the US economy. And the US economy is Canada’s gas tank and I’m afraid this tank is almost empty and is taking on water. We are headed for depression. Its sucks. Lets go squat the Olympic Village.
So far I have heard nothing in the business news today disputing the story CBS ran on Sunday night re: the $1.5 trillion in Alt A and Option Arm mortgages coming due over the next 3 years and starting basicially now.
This is an old story. Blogs like Calculated Risk have been talking about it for over a year now.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html
“This is an old story.”
Yup, and the fact that it is being run as if it were new, falsely implying that this information has not been priced in by markets and governments, shows that the CBC/Garth are more interested in moving product than conveying useful information. The CBC and the rest of the MSM was useless on the way up and are proving to be equally useless on the way down.
One way to watch out for inflation train is to watch out the 10years mortgages rates. Its not the best, but the idea is that you would “use” the bank experts in making your decision.
So far, the rates has been steady and low. I simply can not imagine inflation coming soon with 10year mortgages pinned at 6-7% range. If this happen, the banks would be in serious troubles..
An interesting observation on “how to put your $ somewhere safe.”
If you invest in an ETF, your investment will go up or down with the index, minus to trading and administrative costs.
So, what do you all think of this? When investing in EFTs, (like these on the Horizon Fund page),
* Always go short ETFs.
* If you want to go “long TSX” then don’t buy HXU (TSX Bull) but rather
(Sorry, posted before I was done)
* Always go short ETFs.
* If you want to go “long TSX” then don’t buy HXU (TSX Bull) but rather short HXD (TSX Bear).
* Suppose each has a 3% administration cost. Both will be 3% below the index performance at the end of the year. If you’re long HXU and the TSX went up 10%, you’ll only be up 7%. But if you’re short HXD, HSX will have gone down 13% (10% on the TSX, 3% on admin) and you’ll be up 13%.
Am I nuts, or does this make sense?
ETFs have other problems too, since they do day to day instead of month to month or year to year, they fall behind. There’s a story over on Seeking Alpha, I didn’t follow everything there, but the “always go short on ETFs seems to make sense.
WBWUCssab?
romeo–what’s your beef with alexcanuck? He’s at least as articulate as you, he speaks in complete sentences, he doesn’t tell people that they should go read up on things themselves, he explains things plain as day. How about if you just skip over his posts instead of making the rest of us skip over your ripping on him?
I like reading the rest of your stuff just fine and would like reading more in-depth summaries from you should you feel so inclined to write them.
My $0.02
WBWUCR?
falsely implying that this information has not been priced in by markets and governments
This information has certainly not been priced into the US RE market, if it had the market would already have bottomed by now. Fools are still buying.
re: alexcanuck post 36 —
I vote all 3. I think the bailouts will slow the meltdown, but it will still melt down to a deep low by a year or so from now. I just don’t see people buying enough cars to keep the Big 3 in business. Lots of reasons not to buy a car today — financing is getting harder, job security is lower, vehicle miles traveled are dropping, so cars aren’t wearing out as fast. (Though gas is a lot cheaper). So, keep the old one running a bit longer.
Actually, I don’t know if we’ll see hyperinflation or not. Japan certainly hasn’t had it, and it’s been a 20 year meltdown for them now. And our problems are no smaller than Japan’s. But the US Fed is more intent on stimulating the problem out of existence, so the outcome will be a bit different here.
Good comments, Marko, I appreciate that you took the time to write them up.
WBWUCR?
On the double-negative index funds, look at SRS. It’s double the inverse of the Dow Real Estate fund. But it’s been kaput for the last month or two. I read somewhere that it doesn’t work when volatility (VIX?) is over 40, and it’s been over 40 for a while now.
Look at the SRS vs IYR chart. SRS was doing fine until mid-November. Now it’s way off base. It should be back up to +80% for the year, but instead it’s down 40%!!!
Just something to think about if you’re looking for a safe place to park your funds…
WBWUCR?
“This information has certainly not been priced into the US RE market, if it had the market would already have bottomed by now. Fools are still buying.”
I don’t follow your logic. Do you believe that this is the last piece of bad new and, once priced in, further falls will be impossible. I think there are reasons for the market to fall above and beyond resets.
As for the the fools still buying thing, some people will always buy. There is not such thing as an entirely frozen housing market, for reasons that have been discussed many times right here. What is more, it is not clear to me that all current US buyers are fools. There are lots of cash flow positive properties out there. It’s never foolish to buy an asset that offers a good return, especially considering the alternatives at the moment.
Re WBWYCmakemeblushwithyourpraise #71.
The Horizon group of funds are all double leverage. That makes up for the admin. Is it really so high as 3%? I didn’t realize.
As I’ve mentioned before, I’m not of any sort of financial background, so not good on the details. The bear funds was just the simplest and easiest way for me play to my conviction on where the big picture was going.
WBWYC…. Is that for real on SRS? That’s crazy, I want some!
After due diligence. Do you know of any skeletons in the closet to knock it down like that? COUNTERPARTY RISK?
alexcanuck -
I’m also 100% self-taught about financials, so keep that in mind when considering what I write :^) But anyone that can string together 2 or 3 complete sentences in a row *and* can make sense of things always scores big in my book (it was a problem with Bush, and its one of the things I’m most excited about re: Obama…)
So here’s the Horizon Fund Performance Data page. And the “fees” are a “1.15% ratio” whatever that is. Anyone know how that gets calculated, romeo? If it’s the same as 1.15% of the amount invested, then that’s a 2.3% gain by shorting rather than longing.
But check out the H
And a chart comparing HFD and HFU shows that the uberbear is up 18% on the month and the uberbull is down 24%.
And here is a chart comparing HXD and HXU, it shows the uberbear up 25% over the 2 yrs and the index down 29%. The uberbull should be up 50%. If you were short the uberbear, though, you’d be ahead 60%, a 2-percentage point bonus over the theoretical uberbull. Obviously, uberbear (HXD) is not functioning as it you’d expect it to if it was really delivering 2x the loss of the TSX.
Food for thought, comments?
WBWUCR?
Counterparty risk? Who knows… If things start to look sketchy you might want to close things out, I suppose it’s a matter of whether the fancy financial instruments that make ETFs are any more or less prone to breakdown than shorting…
WBWYC…
Dollar exchange risk is a big factor right now. I feel the $US is going to tumble soon, and SRS is $US denominated. Suddenly not quite so excited.
For what it’s worth… I put in a pretty stinky bid for HGD (gold bear).
About 25% low. If they open the TSX and we get some crazy swings it just might get filled.
If anyone cares and didn’t notice, technical problems and the TSX is shut down.
looking at the interlisted stocks on New York one can deduce that if we were to open now – it would be higher.
OPEC makes deepest production cut ever
http://tinyurl.com/5rm2hm
this will change the game somewhat….
OPEC oil ministers agreed on Wednesday to remove a record 2.2 million barrels per day from oil markets in a race to balance supply with the world’s rapidly crumbling demand for fuel.
they’ll need another 5 millions barrels taken off the market
Anyone seeing price reductions in their target area?
In my target area – north van house/apartments – and downtown condos I have seen NO reduction in DEC.
Blueskies hows your investment portfolio after the stock market downturn?
Did you buy gold?
wbwycr,
I’ve been playing day trading HXD and HXU for the last three months and I agree, there is slippage in relation to the index. The longer you hold it, the more the slippage. I try not to hold either for more than a couple of weeks, and my preference is to close positions by then end of the day.
Although I think your idea of shorting work will work and I have done it on occasion, I generally go long because given the short time frame, the slippage is minimal.
I’m self-taught as well. But the more I listen to these idiotic economists on BNN, the more I realize an economic “degree” doesn’t mean all that much. Better to go out there and read and learn on our own.
$fromA$ia:
portfolio is down 23% from peak
no gold or shorts of any kind…..
i want to go long BcBud just b4 xmas
. Do you believe that this is the last piece of bad new and, once priced in, further falls will be impossible.
No. What I meant is that the option ARM/Alt-A reset information is not currently priced into the market, because houses are still selling for prices that don’t make sense to anyone familiar with this information. Or in other words, fools are still buying as I said.
I also would like to know where properties are cash flow positive right now (and I mean including all expenses). Remember rents are falling in many markets.
From Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor. RE in the US still has a long way to go:
U.S. Construction Starts At Record Lows and Demand Still Falling, The U.S. Housing Sector Is Still Far From Bottoming Out
Nov 2008: Starts fell 18.9% to an annual rate of 625,000 (lowest on record since 1959).
Starts are 73% below their Jan 2006 peak (2273k).
Building permits also declined 15.6% to a annual rate of 616,000 (lowest since at least 1960).
Starts are now down 72% 17% to a 441,000 rate and on multifamily homes fell 27% to a 166,000 rate.
Completions rose by 3.3% m/m in Nov and are down 23% y/y and 52% from the peak.
More at: http://tinyurl.com/5tkgj6
Oil is tumbling again. I guess the market wanted a bigger cut from OPEC? They have announced cuts too often, without following through. Quota cheating is rampant, and expected.
Wolf! Wolf!
AC/36… Regrettably, scenario ‘1′ – on balance – seems the most likely… (also, never mind RJ’s carping, I think he’s just lashing out because a certain RRR hasn’t been drinking his particular brand of romantic kool-aid)….
BlueSkies/88… Now there’s some investment advice (LongOnBud)!….
Marko/66… Excellent piece… and loved your wrap! – re: legacy Toyota parable…
When are most of the 40 year zero down’s coming up for renewal – is it around 2011? With Arm/Alt-A resents happening in the US next year, the big 3 auto makers suffering (and tax payers probably on the hook for the bail-out), and MSM forecasts for further reductions in home values, doom and gloom everywhere – I can’t see anything positive coming down the pipes to keep prices up.
My target area IS dropping in price for the crappy tear-down homes /large lots needing tons of reno’s. The nice/newer homes you can pretty much move right in… on the same sized lots are still holding strong with their prices…but not selling either. My interest remains the same, I want a house, not an apartment, condo, or shoebox.
I’m bored with real estate right now… and prices aren’t dropping fast enough for my liking. I still have to listen to smug co-workers tell me that their condo’s aren’t dropping in price because of their location – even from the people that bought 2 years ago! These are “book-smart” intelligent people that should know better too. I’ve been called pessimistic by family and friends…(the nerve!)
ghost rider,
don’t bite the hand of wisdom that feeds you.
xoxo
romeo
rrr,
please defend me against these superanuated buffoons and trained lizards.
xoxo
romeo
Has anyone looked outside lately?
yes, still snow -2 in Vancouver.
Hey RRR – bit of topic.. but you know that house you looked at with two dogs? Did you happen to think it was bad enough to call the SPCA? Just thinkin’ about those two poor dogs – especially the one you said was tied up outside.
thanks.. jl
of=off
RJ….. You want a girl to defend you? I should be asking you for help! Chilvalry shouldn’t be dead, just cuz you’re on the blogs.
I do have a question for you though. I’ve put 75% of my RRSP portfolio into GIC’s this summer to avoid the market melt-down (and it was a pretty smart move huh?)…. Anyways, I’m thinking I should move the other 25% as well, but then again, are we at bottom and would that mean selling out at the worst possible time? Or will things get much worse….take the hit and salvage what I have? Probably a simple question, but I wanted your opinion…
Back to you babe….
~RRR
RJ:
“In my target area – north van house/apartments – and downtown condos I have seen NO reduction in DEC.”
You might want to get someone else to track that stuff for you.
North Van price reductions last week:
11 attached/apartments. Average old price:489,599 average new price 471,681, -17,918 -3.66% DOMs 69
15 detached. Average old price:973,047 average new price 902,713, -70,333 -7.23% DOMs 83
Look again at the graph on total debt here.
That is why I lean to my scenario 1.
No way we can pay that down.
Either massive default = depression.
Or hyperinflation.
Either works fine to get rid of that debt overhang. What I just can’t believe is that things go back to the permagrowth model that allows the debt to be paid back the way it’s supposed to be.
I still lean to the default model, but am very willing to change my mind should reality start to differ from my delusional thinking.
Gotta come up with a more compelling argument than Dave’s, though.
Thanks for the support, guys. Don’t humor me, please. I’d rather have my nose rubbed in it than smugly go forward being wrong.
RRR,
depends. I’d have to know what you own first.
A blog isn’t the place for a review….
xoxo
romeo
p.s. I like grapes.
Hi Jlinburnaby,
Apparently it was a home service called “Chow-Chow” dog security service. Anyways, it totally turned me off. There were 2 dogs inside the vacant house and one tied up in the backyard. The real estate agent didn’t think anyone had been there that day and when he tried to open the door, one dog tried to fly out at him (all teeth too). Makes me wonder how the original hardwoods faired with dogs left alone inside for extended periods of time. The real estate agent did report it….so who knows.
The home also had “no disclosure” on the information sheet. All around, the house gave me bad Karma vibes……
Geez-us….. I can’t even see my truck in the parking lot…(And I have to run hills tonight)…
RJ….grapes as in “wine”?
http://www.billmacklem.ca/
This (local) guy sent me an email last week and I almost choked on my dinner. How can these guys still do what they do with a straight face?
scroll down to read his “info” on the financial state of BC.
I’ve heard a lot of musing about both listing and rental price declines. Here’s an interesting data point: it’s a duplex that’s both for sale and for rent. This lets us compare rent and sale prices without resorting to benchmarks. (Admittedly, it’s only one data point, and it’s got some strange details.)
The rental price is too high: $2300/mo for a 2-bedroom duplex a stone’s throw from the DTES. Similar suites have been listed as low as $1600 (they’re out there, although they’re few and far between.) The rent is clearly calibrated to the *mortgage* price, not the going rate for rentals in the neighbourhood.
It’s suggestive that the suite is empty and listed for both rent and sale. It’s been up for rent for a month at least. Either the owners don’t really want to rent it out, or they still have some lessons to learn.
Thoughts?
Turkey
Lots of people about to be “schooled”
robert, thanks for the stats – my obeservation was more casual – run my search and I did not see anything cheaper. but thanks again.
rrr,
no, I like grapes, as in, I like being fed grapes one at a time.
jlin, enough with the dogs already – they will survive.
RJ…. Yeah, I suppose the song “peel me a grape” comes to mind. I’m surprised you didn’t find a clip of that….oh, and I prefer “white” over “red” *wink*
Turkey:
Strathcona demands high prices. You think its a stones throw from the DTES, others think its funky. Don’t make the mistake of predicting the market based solely on your opinions.
That said, $2300 seems high for today. I’ve got a brand new place near Commercial, 2 bedrooms, office, and newly reno’d (very nice) for $2600.
Not uncommon, in my experience, to try to rent and sell at the same time. Simply doing that doesn’t speak to the degree of the owner’s realism. I have owners, for example, who say “Maybe I’ve missed the market, and need to drop price to sell, but let’s do this instead: let’s put it up for rent and if we rent it we’ll take it off the amrket, because I can easily wait for the next boom, even if its 5 or 10 years away” Is that unrealistic? Not if you take a step back and look at more than current sales prices.
RRR:
“The real estate agent didn’t think anyone had been there that day and when he tried to open the door, one dog tried to fly out at him (all teeth too). ”
Reminds me of showing a place years ago. It was supposed to be empty with the dog put away, but sure enough, big dog growling at the crack in the door. My buyer said “Puh-leeeze! You’re good with dogs, aren’t you?” So, I open the door a crack and try talking nicely to the dog. She looks up at me, stops growling, turns and runs down the hallway and disappears. I tentatively open the door and the dog explodes out of the bedroom running toward me…..with a big stuffed toy in her mouth that she spit out at my feet!
TSX is holding steady at: 8,724.11
obviously some stability has returned to the markets
Rob,
You’re right, but I’ve been looking at a lot of rentals in Strathcona as they come up. This one was definitely an outlier — even neglecting that the house is on the market and the hapless renters might be evicted soon after moving in. Let’s say I rent it — best case, it stays listed and doesn’t sell (and I only have to tolerate a few open houses?)
I like Strathcona, and its grunginess is part of its charm — but not at any price.
Actually, the point was to offer a single listing that was listed for both rent and sale. (Sorry, this forum seems to drag negative commentary out of me. I recant!)
Turkey:
FWIW, if you rent it you say “Give me a one year lease and take it off the market”and make that part of the agreement. If they’re not willing to do that at least you know where you stand.
Selling a tenanted property is a funny business. Some sellers and Realtors completely ignore the sensibilities of the tenant. I find its much better to do the opposite, and in fact have had at elast one house sold for me by the tenant- I just opened the door and stood back and let her talk about how great the place was. She shouldn’t ahve done that, as it wasn’t in her short term interests, but I think she preferred to just be straight up with everyone (which isn’t as rare as people sometimes think).
RRR, some occasional sales still happening in Richmond:
MLS® No.: V730488:
6333 PRINCESS LN, Steveston South
Gross Assessed Value : $ 560,000.00, was listed @ 629.000 = Sale Price:$570,000
MLS # V725954
was listed @$618,000 – Sale Price: $500,000
my target MLS # V735481
was listed @$799,000
Sold Price $715,000
an other one my target MLS #V743023
was listed @$1088,000
Sold Price $970,000
It is slow but moving to words the cliff and my wishful thinking is helping me to wait!
RRR. Don’t feel bad about the home prices not dropping much yet and what your friends say. I get the same thing…”ooohhh here comes Mr. Pessimistic doom and Gloom” I just remind them that in life I am not a pessimist, but regarding the economy I am as BEAR as a babies butt….also, I ask them if they’ve been watching the news…do they read articles in the internet??
Ummm…that one was chalked full of typos…It should be baby’s butt….
tony (87)
Thanks for the feedback, makes sense.
Turkey (108) –
Make sure the renos to that Kiefer/Vernon place were permitted before you get serious about moving in. They’ve taken out *all* of the bracing in the attic. Put a foot of snow on that roof and it might all splay out. Though it does have a “cross” pattern to the peaks, which will help.
Curious layout, too. Are the 2 bedrooms downstairs? I don’t see a doorway in the kitchen wall (if that kitchen wall is sturdy enough it will keep the roof from completely caving in, too).
WBWUCR?
romeo (85) -
only 2 price reductions I’ve noticed lately, but I don’t follow the prices all that carefully, when there’s 2 YOI and 80 properties listed it’s not easy like it was last spring with 35 properties…
Price reductions…
* 3888 W BROADWAY ( V736149 ), a gorgeous 1939 craftsman in great condition, I’ve commented on it a few times before. Listed last winter at $2M, upped to $2.1M, cut to $1.9M, delisted/relisted at least once, recently cut from $1.7M to $1.68M. Still dreaming, obviously. Oh, and they had an open house last Sunday, I wonder how they did? (I wandered through an open house in the spring, they had a pretty good turnout that day, I bet they got a lowball offer and were insulted by it…)
* 3760 W 14TH AV ( V728668 ) A jumbo megabox monster luxury superdooper craftsman. Price was $3.3M last summer, cut to $3.1M a couple months ago, now down to $2.94M. Still dreaming. There’s 3+YOI of new homes for sale in Pt. Grey… Including a 2 nearly identical monster megacraftsmans (same size house, same size lot, same view) within two blocks of this one.
But, 2 sales in recent weeks, too, as per Greg Viger’s Neighbourhood Watch personalized report —
* 3768 W 1ST AV — a dumpy-ish 1930s 1-1/2 story near Jerico Beach. sold for a couple 100K below list, but a couple 100K above 2007 assessment!! Haven’t seen one go that high for a while, must have had a nice kitchen, gullible buyer, or a couple real enthusiastic Realtors.
* 4668 W 15TH AV –a 1960s split level that looked like it belonged in Tsawassen. On the market for maybe 10 months, sold for a couple 100K below recent list of $1.4M (which was a couple 100K below original list). Assessed at $1.5M. Sold (according to BC Assessment) for $1.5M on April 21, 2007. Someone got a 25% haircut in 18 months… Is there a “flippers in trouble” site for Vancouver or BC?
A bunch of the Point Grey stuff has been pulled off the market, though (expiries, terminations, cancellations), so when most or all of it gets relisted in ‘09 I have to imagine it will be lower.
WBWUCR?
A Short Post on Why 08′ is not GD2.
1. Monetary Base explodes higher in 08′ approx 70% within 18 months of start. During GD1 at the peak it expanded 19% after 4 years of the onset.
2. Discount rate has been chopped faster and lower than GD1. Moreover, during GD1 Fed started to raise rates too soon and had to cut again.
3. The velocity of money is still higher than during GD1 and shows signs of a slight upturn lately.
This is not evidence that all is dandy – it simply argues that this is not GD part 2. It is bad, but not GDII.
xoxo
romeo
ps. wbwucr – thank for the info.
DJ –
In my target area, nothing sold in the past 2 weeks as per my Dec 13th report from the agent. My budget with pre-approval and downpayment would be approx 500k. With that in mind, I refuse to be shackled to a piece of crap that will require costly reno’s that I can’t afford as well as financially limit me in doing other things.
List Price Sold Price Sold date MLS# Area
$ 528,000 $ 480,000 Nov 20 V716727 South Arm
$ 569,900 $ 488,000 Nov 18 V735635 Steveston N
$ 648,800 $ 595,000 Nov 18 V725505 South Arm
$ 479,900 $ 475,000 Nov 6 V742164 South Arm
$ 599,300 $ 580,000 Nov 3 V727603 South Arm
$ 549,000 $ 492,000 Oct 25 V734395 Ironwood
$1,198,000 $1,160,000 Oct 25 V732022 Lackner
$ 699,000 $ 683,400 Oct 22 V726407 Steveston N
$ 708,800 $ 670,000 Oct 19 V728055 South Arm
$ 948,800 $ 920,000 Oct 18 V700881 Lackner
So yes, all sold less than asking, most are the cheaper homes that sold but still – real estate is not where it should be yet.
The balance of the houses in my area that haven’t sold yet, are over-priced, etc…. (yawn) like watching paint dry!
I liked this place…but the owner won’t budge. He says that his price is fair for the market and it will sell when the right buyer comes along. No low-balls accepted.
V715204 – 4751 FORTUNE AV $ 638,000. It’s been on the market at least 3 months since the MLS listing shows an upcoming open house on Oct 5th from 2-4.
Ceejay: Remember your prediction yesterday?
Gold will go up tomorrow. There; I did it; I’m out on a limb, and I’ve got skin in the Game. And a risky 50% chance of accuracy.
I crashed the TSX just to show you up!
I here ya RRR,
Assessed Value : $ 579,000 for V715204, we have a lot of lunatics around, You know the Casino proximity in Richmond does its work on the subliminal level to these vendors!
Clinical intervention is required!
Lowball them all!
RRR
.
V715204 -Lot Area 3,964 sq. ft. , Fin. Floor Area 1,952 sq. ft., Age at list: 28 = kinda OK,
but street appeal is rather special
Did you offer 460.000?, I would say that this is not even a vulture style!
DJ – I’m thinking closer to 410,000 for it – but that’s not gonna happen..It’s really hard to find double car garages in Richmond for under 600k. Me and 20 others would jump on it if it went under 500k. Maybe by spring if it’s still available. We shall see…
RRR
I’m not sure but 410K at a glance, is my kinda figure, but when I look at the picture, nah ugly, sorry you can have it!
with this attitude …”He says that his price is fair for the market and it will sell when the right buyer comes along” probably re listed not to be in even more compromising position
Cheers
RJ
your personality continues to “shine” through.
i think you have made it clear you don’t like dogs, so why don’t you just skip my remarks and keep yours in your wee little head.
Oh yeah, and that split level on W 15th is right across the street from a house that sold at market peak (February ‘08).
4683 w 15th Av , sold for $1.22M Feb 2008 (See Jeff’s Post # 40 on Oct 8, 2008).
Let’s do a little comparison:
4683 W 15th
sold $1.22M (Feb ‘08)
Built 1958
Lot size 33 x 122
home size 2188 sf (80% finished)
4668 W 15th
sold between$1.1 and $1.2M (Dec ‘08)
Built 1969
Lot size 55 x 122
home size 2948 sf (100% finished)
So, 9 months later you could get a house that was 10 years newer and 30% larger on a lot that was 70% larger, for about $100K less.
Trouble is, the buyer of the 2nd house also got a lousy deal…
WBWUCR?
DJ – thanks for the info re: assessment value. I think the house is kinda cute (love the high ceilings), I might add a fireplace in the master bedroom though…I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Since you think it’s ugly…I better not see you jumping all over it if it re-lists in the spring! It’s mine….all mine!
~RRR
B.S. Gold Bullion has been good.
I am very pleased.
So has gold stocks as a day trade
It’s really the only stand by in these times.
Richmond Renter, Rihmond is overpriced at least 30%.
Appreciate your freedom and your current job. Tough times are comming.
I am no one of those people waiting to jump in as you stated aove although I watch Richmond RE as well.
$fromA$ia$….
Yes agreed – Richmond is over-priced,
hence my low-ball offer of 410k for V715204. And freedom as you say…is priceless! …After looking out my window….I’m thinking Maui = )
Nice house, Got to tell you theres not as many options for this home as others because of the offset floor plan.
I bet in 2000 this house would be lucky to get $320k.
“Newcomer { 12.16.08 at 11:37 pm } “This is an old story.”
Yup, and the fact that it is being run as if it were new, falsely implying that this information has not been priced in by markets and governments, shows that the CBC/Garth are more interested in moving product than conveying useful information. The CBC and the rest of the MSM was useless on the way up and are proving to be equally useless on the way down.”
I wouldn’t be too sure about that. You are assuming that markets have perfect perception of future events. The fact is, until the impact of Alt A and Option Arm is felt in the form of increased foreclosures the event is not a certainty and is not priced into markets as a certainty. Many analysts that I have heard on BNN still talk about the US housing market and US economy in general, rebounding in late 2009 or early 2010. Its like the markets reacting to the possibility that Lehmans was in trouble and then the markets reacting when Lehmans actually failed. As we have seen with r/e, market participants have an incredible ability to view the future through rose-coloured glasses, even when information suggests otherwise.
Marko, people buying RE right now are idiots. That’s really all that needs to be said.
patriotz { 12.17.08 at 8:06 pm } “Marko, people buying RE right now are idiots. That’s really all that needs to be said.”
But you gotta wonder with credit so tight, what bank is handing out $500k+ mortgages for assets that are so obviosly falling in value? Either some very rich idiot buyers with huge downpayments or some loans manager who is looking to change jobs in the new year.
But the loans are essentially risk-free for the banks because CMHC is insuring them. If a bank makes a loan to a business that fails, it doesn’t get its money back. But if it makes a loan to buy a house that gets foreclosed, it does.
niPrXT
http://www.workshopsoneastpenbay.com/cgi-bin/store/jewelry-middlesex-store.html jewelry middlesex store http://www.workshopsoneastpenbay.com/cgi-bin/store/jewelry-new-rochester-store-york.html jewelry new rochester store york http://www.workshopsoneastpenbay.com/cgi-bin/store/fred-jewelry-meyer-store.html fred jewelry meyer store http://www.workshopsoneastpenbay.com/cgi-bin/store/jewelry-littman-store.html jewelry littman store http://www.workshopsoneastpenbay.com/cgi-bin/store/albany-jewelry-new-store-york.html albany jewelry new store york
http://www.ubs-inc.com/UserFiles/discount/car-discount-rental.html car discount rental http://www.ubs-inc.com/UserFiles/discount/discount-travel.html discount travel http://www.ubs-inc.com/UserFiles/discount/cruise-discount.html cruise discount http://www.ubs-inc.com/UserFiles/discount/apparel-discount.html apparel discount
http://www.scada.org/misc/pussy2/hotter-pussy.html hotter pussy http://www.scada.org/misc/pussy2/hottest-black-pussy.html hottest black pussy http://www.scada.org/misc/pussy2/hottest-new-pussy.html hottest new pussy http://www.scada.org/misc/pussy2/hottest-pussy-babes.html hottest pussy babes